US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3140

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003140 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2012 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, KPKO, NI, IV 
SUBJECT: DOMESTIC SECURITY CONCERNS AND BUDGET WOES 
PRECLUDE GON CONTRIBUTION TO COTE D'IVOIRE FORCE 
 
 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
 
1.  (C) During a November 15 meeting, Ambassador Jeter and 
Minister of State for Defense (Army) Malam Lawal Batagarawa 
discussed possible deployment of Nigerian forces in the 
ECOWAS monitoring force for Cote d'Ivoire.  Citing 
Nigeria's role in peacekeeping operations in Sierra Leone 
and Liberia, Ambassador Jeter emphasized that Nigerian 
participation could be important to the ultimate success of 
the operation, particularly if large-scale fighting were 
renewed.  While Batagarawa said the GON was committed to 
doing what was "best for the subregion", he was not 
sanguine about Nigerian participation in the ECOWAS 
observer force. 
 
 
2.  (C) Batagarawa thought the GON could not afford to 
deploy many soldiers outside of Nigeria while the present 
need for domestic security remained high.  Recalling recent 
violence in Plateau state, he said the "killing would have 
been unbelievable" had the military been unable to 
intervene.  In the absence of an effective police force, 
Batagarawa saw the military as the final guarantor of 
order. 
 
 
3.  (C) Noting the GON's large budgetary shortfall for this 
fiscal year (estimated at USD 2 billion), Batagarawa said 
Nigeria could ill afford to get involved in an open-ended 
commitment in Cote d'Ivoire.  When told the USG commitment 
of USD 3 million would cover support costs of troops on the 
ground for six months, Batagarawa said the GON needed a 
commitment of at least a year's worth of on the ground 
logistics support, even to consider participating in the 
operation.  Also, Batagarawa dismissed European offers of 
assistance, saying the Europeans always "promise heaven and 
earth" but never come through.  Despite his misgivings, 
Batagarawa asked for a memorandum of the USG offer of 
assistance to ECOWAS.  ODC Chief told him one would be 
forwarded.  Batagarawa promised to contact the Ambassador 
regarding the matter next week. 
 
 
4.  (C) COMMENT: Given Nigeria's domestic concerns and 
tension in the Bakassi, Batagarawa is probably correct that 
there is not much appetite for GON participation in the 
Ivoirian deployment.  Political considerations are very 
important now, given the approach of election season. 
Deployment in another peacekeeping operation would not be 
politically popular, and President Obasanjo's critics could 
excoriate him for sending troops to Cote d'Ivoire. 
Batagarawa's offer to review a memorandum of USG support 
may have left the door ajar slightly, but his gesture was 
probably the result of his intention to sow uncertainty 
and, at least at this meeting, to avoid a direct refusal. 
Getting the GON to revise its position will require much 
more work and the offer of significant additional, long- 
term assistance.  Unfortunately, for the time being, 
domestic political, security and budgetary considerations 
will make Nigeria focus on its internal condition and less 
on its usual role as the fulcrum of West African 
peacekeeping and conflict resolution efforts.  END COMMENT. 
JETER