US embassy cable - 05HARARE1455

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001455 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI GAINING UPPER HAND IN SENATE DEBATE 
 
REF: A. REF A: HARARE 1446 
     B. REF B: HARARE 1421 
     C. REF C: HARARE 1405 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai appears to be 
emerging on top in the intra-party debate over participation 
in the Senate elections.  Tsvangirai,s stance has clearly 
resonated with the MDC,s rank and file, which believes that 
participation would only legitimize a corrupt and powerless 
institution.  The National Executive, convened by Tsvangirai 
on Saturday, supported his decision to overturn the earlier 
decision by the party,s Executive Council to participate in 
the vote.  That said, MDC provincial leaders in the three 
Ndebele areas have continued the nomination process for 
Senate candidates raising the specter of an MDC split along 
ethnic lines.  Tsvangirai successfully quelled efforts by 
four of the MDC,s &Top 68 to involve South African 
President Mbeki in mediation efforts.  End Summary. 
 
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Tsvangirai Winning the Battle for Hearts and Minds 
 
SIPDIS 
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2.  (C) Tsvangirai appears to be emerging the victor in the 
fierce battle over the MDC,s participation in the November 
26 race for Senate.  The MDC leader instigated the crisis on 
October 12 when he overturned a 33 to 31 Executive Council 
decision in favor of contesting (ref B and C).  Tsvangirai,s 
stance against the Senate has clearly resonated with the 
opposition,s rank and file, who remain loyal to the MDC 
president and who appear increasingly eager to confront the 
government.  Within the MDC, the party,s youth and women,s 
leagues support the boycott, as do the party structures in 
nine of the 12 provinces ) the three Ndebele provinces are 
the only holdouts. 
 
3.  (C) Civil society has also backed Tsvangirai, roundly 
criticizing the reconstituted Senate as a worthless and 
patronage-filled institution.  The National Constitutional 
Assembly and the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions have both 
publicly declared their opposition to the Senate.  And, 
despite the doom and gloom portrayed by the state-controlled 
media, Zimbabwe,s independent press has reported favorably 
on Tsvangirai,s gambit, echoing the theme that the Senate is 
merely a patronage-generating machine for ZANU-PF. 
 
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National Executive Back Tsvangirai 
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4.  (C) In response to MDC Vice President Gibson Sibanda and 
others who charge he has adopted anti-democratic means to 
enforce his opinion, Tsvangirai convened the party,s 
National Executive on Saturday.  The Executive voted to 
support Tsvangirai,s decision to boycott, although Sibanda, 
Ncube, and other members of the pro-participation faction 
were not present.  The Executive,s decision came ahead of 
Monday,s sitting of the nomination courts, with which all 
candidates ) even those not endorsed by the party - must 
register. 
 
5.  (C) Tsvangirai also successfully outmaneuvered efforts by 
his pro-participation rivals to insert South African 
President Thabo Mbeki as a mediator in the intra-party 
dispute.  On 20 September, Sibanda and Ncube, along with 
deputy Secretary General Gift Chimanikire and party treasurer 
Fletcher Dulini Ncube traveled to Pretoria to meet with 
Mbeki; national chairman Isaac Matongo reportedly backed out 
of the trip at the last minute.  Fending off Mbeki,s offer 
to moderate, Tsvangirai told reports that the South African 
President was being &abused8 by party members who had 
attempted to drag him into an internal party affair. 
 
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But Ndebele Going Forward With Participation 
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6.  (C) Tsvangirai,s only setback as of late afternoon today 
came when, as expected, the MDC leadership in Bulawayo and 
Matabeleland North and South nominated five candidates each 
to contest the election.  MDC Secretary for Legal Affairs 
David Coltart earlier this month told poloff that the Ndebele 
people had worked hard to rid themselves of ZANU-PF 
politicians and did not want them back by default (ref A). 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) The debate over participation in the Senate may very 
well prove a defining moment for the MDC and Tsvangirai. 
Months of intra-party squabbling that have paralyzed the 
party have now come to a head.  Tsvangirai appears to be 
using the crisis to reassert his leadership and to rally the 
party behind him.  A rejuvenated MDC may well be a more 
confrontational MDC and given the increasing unpopularity of 
the government, the moment may be propitious.  There is still 
a real chance of a split within the MDC (and unfortunately 
along ethnic lines) if the Ndebele provinces contest the 
elections.  That said, we believe the locus of the opposition 
would remain around Tsvangirai, who maintains broad-based 
support, and we believe that is unlikely the Ndebele people 
will ever reconcile itself with a ZANU-PF government.  End 
Comment. 
DELL