US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD15950

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 015950 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
DEPT - PLEASE PASS TO USAID 
KABUL - PLEASE PASS TO CFC-A 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015 
TAGS: AEMR, ASEC, EAID, MASS, MOPS, PGOV, PK, PREL, PREF, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE:  WHAT THE U.S. MUST 
ACCOMPLISH IN GENEVA 
 
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 15680 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     B. ISLAMABAD 15728 
     C. RIYADH 7591 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C)  As the United States prepares for the October 26th 
Geneva Donors' Conference on the South Asian Earthquake, we 
face a challenge and an opportunity of almost unprecedented 
magnitude.  Without indulging in hyperbole, I can assure you 
that Pakistan - our frontline ally in the war on terror -- is 
faced with a calamity of stunning proportions.  In the two 
weeks since the October 8 earthquake, we have come to realize 
that early projections of human and property losses were well 
short of the emerging reality.  Today the UN almost doubled 
its flash appeal for relief assistance to Pakistan:  the 
inital call for USD 272 million has been raised to USD 522 
million to fund shelter, nutrition, health care and 
logistical support for the next six months.  In order to make 
a difference on the ground, given the scale of the 
destruction, and to retain our position on the moral high 
ground here and throughout the Muslim world, I urge that the 
U.S. delegation arrive in Geneva prepared to pledge USD 500 
million in relief and reconstrution assistance. 
 
Relief Operations -- Acute Need for Months, Not Weeks 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Official estimates from Government of Pakistan 
(GOP) now place the confirmed death toll at more than 50,000, 
with another 75,000 seriously injured and 2.5 - 3 million 
homeless.  These numbers will continue to rise as relief 
crews push into ever more remote valleys and hamlets. 
Despite 16 days of 24/7 operations, relief has yet to reach 
perhaps one-quarter of the population in inaccessible areas 
of the disaster zone.  Entire cities have been leveled and 
hundreds of isolated villages have simply vanished. 
Infrastructure -- roads, bridges, power supplies, 
telecommunications -- throughout Pakistan-controlled Azad 
Jammu Kashmir (AJK) and large swaths of the North West 
Frontier Province (NWFP) has been destroyed.  I do not 
exaggerate when I say that the GOP is facing a cataclysm of 
relief and reconstruction needs, demands on a scale that no 
country other than the U.S. could face alone. 
 
3.  (C)    For our part, we are rapidly burning through the 
initial USD 50 million announced by the White House on 
October 9th.  This does not included the non-monetized 
expenses of the U.S. military units that are sustaining the 
GOP's present relief operations.  This will not/not taper off 
anytime soon.  The hard truth is that the "acute phase" of 
the disaster will last for months and that Pakistan will 
require the combined assistance of USG agencies -- 
USAID/DART, State and all four military services -- for the 
foreseeable future.  Even with this extraordinary U.S. 
mega-relief mission, we are not even close to addressing the 
magnitude of the relief and reconstruction challenges facing 
Pakistan.  U.S. officials who have seen the disaster zone 
first-hand have immediately understood that we must factor 
acute relief needs for shelter, heavy engineering, health 
care and logistical support continuing well into the next 
year into our assistance strategy, even as we simultaneously 
map out long-term support for the region's reconstruction. 
 
Looking Toward Reconstruction -- What Can the U.S. Do? 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4.  (C)  To make a lasting difference as Pakistan rebuilds 
AJK and NWFP -- two regions which collectively qualify as a 
jihad heartland -- we must go to Geneva prepared to challenge 
all donors to think big and dig deep.  The near complete loss 
of physical and social infrastructure demands a 
multi-national reconstruction effort on the scale of the 
international response to tsunami earlier this year.  I 
therefore urge that the U.S. delegation inspire other donors 
by announcing a pledge of USD 500 million directed toward 
reconstruction of the education and health sectors: 
 
-- In health care, the USG would have a significant effect by 
committing to rebuild, equip and staff both tertiary 
hospitals destroyed in NWFP and AJK, as well as dozens of 
district hospitals and primary health care facilities. 
 
-- In education, some 2500 schools were destroyed in NWFP and 
more than 3100 in AJK.  The USG should rebuild at least 200 
primary schools, 20 middle schools and 10 high schools in 
each of the two provinces, as well as restore the Hazara 
University in the Mansehra District of NWFP and AJK 
University in Rawalkot. 
 
5.  (C)  In addition to these two vital tasks, the U.S. 
should also offer to facilitate the GOP's reconstruction 
plans by offering technical assistance in 
earthquake-resistant construction technologies, including 
hands-on training for the architects, engineers and 
construction workers who will rebuild houses, schools, 
clinics and businesses. 
 
What Can the U.S. Get Others To Do? 
----------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Even a pledge of USD 500 million will only scratch 
away at the mountain of reconstruction needs facing the GOP. 
Just as Pakistan cannot shoulder this burden alone, neither 
can we -- we must do everything possible to ensure a strong 
international commitment to Pakistan's long-term recovery. 
Although I remain concerned about the success of the October 
26th Geneva Conference (Ref B), an early and strong USG 
pledge at Geneva is the best means of spurring other donors 
into action.  Several of the Gulf states have made generous 
pledges and may be willing to do more.  Europeans hesitant to 
donate to the GOP out of fear of corruption and questions 
regarding transparency could take heart from a vigorous U.S. 
response.  We must encourage these donors to take on projects 
of a similar scale: rebuilding roads, restoring bridges, 
reconnecting power grids and communication systems.  Just as 
the USG is leveraging its emergency relief assistance -- 
responding to GOP requests for four hospitals by supplying 
two ourselves and identifying partners who can provide the 
remainder -- we must also leverage our reconstruction dollars 
to challenge the international community to do the same. 
 
 
Generosity Now Will Pay Dividends Later 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  The U.S. role in the Geneva Conference will be a 
pivotal point for securing Pakistan's new-found confidence 
that we are sincere in our commitment to a long-term 
strategic relationship.  Our strong showing in supporting 
emergency relief operations has prompted many in Pakistan to 
re-evaluate their image of America.  The U.S. has not enjoyed 
such a positive reception by the Pakistan people, press and 
public officials in decades.  Expectations are high, both 
here and throughout the Muslim world.  Other donors are 
looking to us to set the bar.  (Note: In addition to snipes 
in the international press that the inital U.S. pledge of USD 
50 million was parsimonious, we have seen reports that other 
large donors -- including the Saudis (Ref C) -- have been 
less than impressed with the USG's public donation. End 
note.)  We risk squandering these gains if our leadership in 
Geneva, both in terms of the generosity of our pledge and our 
ability to generate commensurate international support, is 
insufficient to the task.  If we arrive in Geneva with a bold 
program and the resources to back it up, even the skeptics 
will take note that the U.S. is as willing to fight extremism 
and instability by investing in Pakistan's recovery -- and, 
by extension, the Muslim world -- as it is to underwriting 
the war on terror. 
 
 
 
CROCKER