US embassy cable - 05VIENNA3431

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Identifier:	05VIENNA3431
Wikileaks:	View 05VIENNA3431 at Wikileaks.org
Origin:	Embassy Vienna
Created:	2005-10-24 12:23:00
Classification:	UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Tags:	PGOV AU
Redacted:	This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.

UNCLAS VIENNA 003431 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/AGS (VIKMANIS-KELLER) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: PGOV, AU 
SUBJECT:  SPO WINS ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IN VIENNA ELECTIONS 
 
REF:  (A) Vienna 3329; (B) Vienna 3269 
 
THIS MESSAGE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. 
 
1.  (SBU) On October 23, The Social Democrats (SPO) 
 
increased their absolute majority of seats in the state 
 
legislature of Vienna (Austria's most populous state), 
 
but narrowly missed winning over 50 percent of the 
 
popular vote.  In the last of three state elections held 
 
in October, Chancellor Schuessel's conservative People's 
 
Party (OVP) and the Greens also posted modest gains.  The 
 
Freedom Party (FPO) lost support, but exceeded 
 
expectations by capturing nearly 15 percent.  The big 
 
loser was Joerg Haider's FPO spinoff Alliance Future 
 
Austria (BZO), which came in last, after the Austrian 
 
Communist Party (KPO). 
 
2.  (U) vote pct. (change from 2001), seats (change) 
 
SPO       49.0   (+2.1)            55      (+3) 
 
OVP       18.8   (+2.4)            18      (+3) 
 
FPO       14.9   (-5.3)            13      (-8) 
 
Greens    14.7   (+2.2)            14      (+2) 
 
KPO       1.5    (+0.8)             -        - 
 
BZO        1.2     (-)              -        - 
 
Electorate: 1,142,126  Voter Turnout: 60 Percent 
 
3.  (SBU) The relatively low voter turnout worked to the 
 
SPO's disadvantage.  Social Democrat voters may have been 
 
less motivated because of the apparent certainty of a 
 
win.  The OVP scored with attractive candidates and 
 
attacks against SPO dominance in Vienna.  The FPO's sharp- 
 
edged anti-immigrant tone helped minimize its losses. 
 
The Greens, hampered by lack of a clear line, failed to 
 
meet their goal of coming in second.  The BZO suffered 
 
another state election debacle, with a result below its 
 
current national ratings of 2-3 percent. 
 
4.  (SBU) COMMENT:  The October election results weaken 
 
the BZO nationally.  In particular, there could be an 
 
erosion of BZO strength in parliament if its deputies 
 
start to drift back to the FPO.  With his comparatively 
 
good performance in his home state of Vienna, national 
 
FPO chairman Karl Heinz Strache has consolidated his 
 
position and increased the FPO's chances of becoming the 
 
sole right-of-center survivor of last spring's FPO/BZO 
 
split.  The BZO's prospects of entering parliament in 
 
national elections in fall 2006 appear cloudy at best. 
 
Van Voorst