US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3661

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, ECON, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: LECH KACZYNSKI ELECTED PRESIDENT OF POLAND 
 
REF: WARSAW 3656 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1. Summary:  Lech Kaczynski snatched victory in Poland's 
presidential election on October 23, in a surprising come 
from behind win against Donald Tusk.  Elections results will 
be announced officially this afternoon, but with well over 90 
percent of the votes tallied, Kaczynski secured his election 
with a strong showing in the south and east of Poland, and a 
whopping 68% of rural votes.  Plans for the coalition between 
Kaczynski's Law and Justice Party (PiS) and the Civic 
Platform (PO) continue today, with the expected announcement 
of the government's composition on Friday, October 28.  End 
Summary. 
 
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Polska "A" and Polska "B" 
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2.  Lech Kaczynski won a solid victory against his PO 
opponent, Donald Tusk, gaining 54% of votes cast nationwide. 
Splitting the map of Poland in half, Kaczynski won in the 
eight eastern and southern provinces of the country, while 
Tusk won all eight of the northern and western provinces. 
Kaczynski's brand of social conservatism and nationalistic 
rhetoric played particularly well in rural areas, where he 
gained a stunning 68 percent of the vote.  Tusk carried the 
cities and younger Poles.  Kaczynski won the overwhelming 
support (83 percent) of Samoobrona voters from the first 
presidential round, whose leader, Andrzej Lepper, urged his 
supporters to back PiS.  Tusk won many voters on the left but 
they did not turn out in high numbers. 
 
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Coalition Partners Begin Concrete Discussions 
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3.  Kaczynski quickly claimed victory after the polls closed 
October 23, and Tusk called to offer his congratulations. 
Both reiterated their intention to move forward with the 
PiS-PO coalition government.  With the bitterly fought 
campaign finally over, PiS and PO resumed negotiations 
October 24 to discuss the composition of their coalition 
government.  Prime Minister-designate Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz 
and PO's Deputy Prime Minister-designate Jan Rokita announced 
in a joint press conference that opening talks would focus on 
economic issues.  Marcinkiewicz said he hoped to announce the 
cabinet on Friday, October 28.  Kaczynski will assume the 
presidency on December 23. 
 
4.  Despite wide speculation about various cabinet positions, 
Marcinkiewicz has kept quiet with respect to naming specific 
individuals in his cabinet, and we believe most positions are 
still under negotiation.  In his victory speech last night, 
Kaczynski suggested that Tusk would be a good choice for 
speaker of the Sejm, but on Monday morning Tusk reiterated 
that Bronoslaw Komorowski remains PO's candidate.  Kaczynski 
also said that Elzbieta Jakubiak will be his Presidential 
Chief of Staff, following him from the Warsaw mayor's office. 
 
 
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Foreign Policy Implications 
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5.  During the campaign, Kaczynski said that his two first 
trips abroad as president would be to the United States and 
the Vatican, drawing a sharp distinction with the 
Euro-friendlier Tusk.  With respect to foreign relations, in 
his first comments as President-elect, Kaczynski said that he 
wanted a strong working relationship with Germany, but added 
that he was concerned over plans to build a center for 
Germans expelled from former German territories after World 
War II, as well as the proposed pipeline under the Baltic Sea 
to transport oil from Russia to German bypassing Poland 
entirely.  He called for Poland to play an active role in the 
European Union, but said he was opposed to the EU 
constitution in its current form. 
 
6.  Comment:  With Kaczynski's victory in the presidential 
election, PiS neatly flipped expectations that it would be 
the junior partner in ruling Poland.  Both PiS and PO 
officials were quick to reassure that the coalition would 
move forward.  In the short term the parties have nowhere 
else to turn for any other viable political partners, but PiS 
will have a full plate in delivering on campaign promises to 
clean up government and maintain Poland's costly social 
welfare system, while PO has insisted upon fiscal 
responsibility.  PiS attacks against the savagery of PO's 
"liberalism" resonated with voters, but will make economic 
policies particularly tricky to coordinate. Kaczynski already 
commented that he wants to play a bigger role in domestic 
policy than his predecessor, Aleksander Kwasniewski.  After 
its twin failures in both parliamentary and presidential 
rounds, the long term viability of PO is an open question. 
ASHE