US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA861

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000861 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, KDEM, EAID, PGOV, BO, LO, EUN 
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA'S VIEWS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS 
 
REF: A. (A) STATE 188900 
 
     B. (B) BRATISLAVA 00804 
 
Classified By: CDA LAWRENCE R. SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C)  Charge discussed Deputies Committee decisions on 
policy toward Belarus (ref A) with MFA Director for CIS and 
Balkans Stefan Rozkopal Oct. 21.   Rozkopal provided a 
preliminary reaction to some of the points, but said the GOS 
hoped to have a clearer picture of the situation and how to 
influence it after he and MFA PolDir Miro Lajcak visit 
Belarus December 4-6.  Lajcak will meet with opposition 
figures as well as the Lukashenko government during his visit. 
 
2.  (C)  Among GOS initial, informal reactions: 
 
-- GOS shares view that EU is not moving fast or far enough 
on Belarus.  The EU is also taking an unwarranted break from 
re-focusing its attention on Ukraine. 
 
-- The one-time tough, direct approach to Lukashenko is good 
as a shot across his bow and a marker for future relations 
with the regime, but Lukashenko will not budge an inch. 
Slovakia expects him to run and obviously win the elections. 
Neither internal nor external forces will be able to affect 
this outcome, although that should not stop support for 
democratic forces. 
 
-- The world will have to decide whether to recognize a 
Lukashenko victory in the 2006 elections, regardless of our 
position on his candidacy.  This will depend on the conduct 
of the elections.  The EU has agreed at the working level 
whether to consider his candidacy illegal, and he expected 
that stance to be endorsed. Rozkopal asked on a strictly 
informal basis whether there might be public or private U.S. 
funding for Slovak election observers, either directly or as 
part of a larger delegation of Visegrad 4 observers. 
 
-- There is a role for engagement of GOB officials.  Belarus 
Deputy FM Alexander Mikhnevitch recently visited Bratislava 
to discuss economic issues, and the Slovak Deputy Minister of 
Culture is visiting Minsk now to open a cultural center 
there.  Mikhnevitch raised the issue of EU limits on Belarus 
textiles and asked for help against the prospect of further 
EU sanctions, which he argued would only hurt the little man 
by increasing unemployment.  Rozkopal noted that a strong 
anti-EU campaign in Belarus is helping Lukashenko. 
 
-- Relations between Russian President Putin and Lukashenko 
were "very good," in Slovakia,s view; there was no sign of a 
positive evolution of Russian views. 
 
-- The GOS is very supportive of getting radio and perhaps TV 
broadcasting going as soon as possible.  Having studied data 
on the Belarus radio audience, Slovakia concluded that most 
programming should be done in Russian, with a minority of 
time devoted to broadcasting in Belorussian. 
 
3.  (C)  As we were leaving Rozkopal,s office, Slovak MP 
Lazlo Nagy was stopping by to provide Rozkopal a briefing on 
his own recent visit to Minsk to attend a Congress of 
Democratic Forces gathering.  Nagy, the Chairman of the 
Slovak parliament,s Human Rights Committee and someone who 
works hard to promote human rights issues both inside and 
outside Slovakia, has invited Belarus opposition leader 
Milinkevich to visit Bratislava soon. 
SILVERMAN 
 
 
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