US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1826

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001826 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: SOFIA MAYOR'S ELECTION TESTS RULING COALITION STABILITY 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1134, (B) SOFIA 1450, (C) SOFIA 1598 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Bulgaria will hold mayoral by-elections October 
29 in Sofia and seven other cities where mayors were elected to 
parliament in the June general elections (Ref. A).  The partners in 
the Socialist-led government have failed, however, to agree on 
joint candidates, turning the by-elections into a test for the 
fledgling ruling coalition.  The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) 
and its coalition partner, the National Movement for Simeon II 
(NMSS), have named two of their most prominent figures to compete 
against each other in the key Sofia race.  While that is unlikely 
to affect government stability, it will raise tension among the 
coalition partners.  The participation of the hugely popular former 
Interior Ministry Chief Secretary Boiko Borissov in the Sofia race 
adds another element of unpredictability.  Borissov, who is running 
as an independent and according to polls enjoys a strong lead, 
hopes this election will be his springboard to a national political 
career.  END SUMMARY 
 
THE SOFIA RACE: KEY CONTESTANTS 
 
2. (U) Fifteen candidates contest the Sofia race, which follows the 
election to parliament of ten-year mayor Stefan Sofianski.  Polls 
suggest five candidates have a realistic chance of winning: 
Socialist Party entrant Gen. Borissov (the Socialist Party took the 
most votes in Sofia in the June vote) as well as the nominees of 
the NMSS and the two major center-right parties.  The weak and 
fragmented center-right groups failed to name a joint nominee, 
hobbling their candidates in this traditional center-right 
stronghold.  The extreme nationalist group Ataka, which ranked 
fourth in the June general elections, has not registered a 
candidate for the Sofia by-election. 
 
3. (SBU) BOIKO BORISSOV, who resigned as Interior Ministry Chief 
Secretary last month over disagreements with the new Socialist 
 
SIPDIS 
Interior Minister (Ref. C), has consistently led opinion polls over 
the past four years.  His Armani-clad tough-guy image, plain 
language and close ties with local media have been key to the 
popularity of the former firefighter and national karate champion. 
Even after quitting the ministry, Borissov continues to boast about 
his successful police operations, stressing his ties with the 
Western security services.  His opponents, however, point to his 
past connections with strong-arm groups and unsavory business 
interests.  The charismatic general, who previously served as a 
bodyguard for ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg, portrays himself as an 
alternative to the party candidates and the political status quo. 
He told us in a recent meeting he planned to use the Sofia race to 
jumpstart a career on a national level, with future plans possibly 
including the launch of a new political party. 
 
4. (SBU) TATYANA DONCHEVA, the Socialist Party candidate, has been 
an MP since 1997 and is arguably one of the boldest figures within 
the BSP.  She is respected and feared for her rhetorical skills and 
sometimes sharp language, which she uses to attack both political 
opponents and her own party leaders.  A former prosecutor and 
attorney, Doncheva's criticism of the old guard in the Socialist 
Party has shaped her image as a rebel within her own group.  Most 
notably, she openly questioned PM Sergei Stanishev's nomination, 
saying he lacked the experience for the job and could be easily 
manipulated.  Many perceive her mayoral candidacy as an attempt by 
the BSP leadership to at least partially marginalize her.  Doncheva 
may also attract support from centrist and even some center-right 
voters.  In many ways, Doncheva appears as the candidate most 
interested in actually tackling the problems Sofia's next mayor 
must face.  At the same time, however, she appears too bold for the 
old-fashioned ex-communists, who may prefer to back Borissov or 
stay home. 
 
5. (SBU) MILEN VELCHEV, the former Finance Minister who led a team 
of Western-educated reformers in Simeon Saxe-Coburg's government, 
entered the race after an 11th-hour decision by the ex-king about 
the NMSS nomination.  A former investment banker who served as a 
vice-president of Merrill Lynch in London before taking office as a 
minister in 2001, Velchev has gained respect both at home and 
abroad for his sound macroeconomic policies.  One of the most 
popular ministers in the previous government, he has developed a 
reputation as a responsible politician loyal to ex-PM Simeon. 
Simeon recently named him an NMSS deputy chairman.  Velchev enjoys 
the support of well-educated young voters but his inability to talk 
in plain language about Sofia's day-to-day problems (stray dogs and 
garbage collection and the like) make it difficult for him to 
connect with the average voter. 
 
6. (SBU) SVETOSLAV GAVRIISKI, a respected financier who served as 
Central Bank Governor in 1997-2003, is the candidate of the 
Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB), the center-right party of ex- 
PM Ivan Kostov, which enjoys considerable support in Sofia. 
Gavriiski is widely credited for introducing in 1997 the currency 
board regime, which laid the groundwork for Bulgaria's current 
financial stability.  His impressive record as central bank chief 
is recognized even by his opponents in the race.  The media-shy 
Gavriiski, who lacks the speaking skills and charisma of his 
opponents, appeals to a highly-educated segment of Sofia voters and 
has difficulty reaching out to voters beyond the DSB base. 
7. (SBU) MINKO GERDZHIKOV, the nominee of the center-right Union of 
Democratic Forces (UDF) and four smaller center-right groups, has 
served as acting Mayor since former Mayor Sofianski quit in May to 
launch his campaign for parliament.  A former deputy economy 
minister, Gerdzhikov has also served as commercial attach in 
Greece and briefly worked as an advisor to the energy arm of 
controversial business conglomerate Multigroup.  Unlike other 
candidates, Gerdzhikov is already familiar with Sofia's problems 
and has a detailed plan to address them.  Compared to his rivals, 
however, he is the least known to the public. 
 
BORISSOV RETAINS LEAD, BUT SURPRISES POSSIBLE 
 
8. (SBU) All recent opinion surveys show Borissov as the 
frontrunner in the Sofia race, although his strong lead over the 
Socialist candidate is shrinking.  The three center-right 
candidates are almost on par.  An opinion poll published October 19 
by the Center for Public Opinion Research shows Borissov with 35 
percent of the vote, followed by Doncheva with 17.4 percent, 
Velchev (8.4 percent), Gavriiski (8.4 percent) and Gerdzhikov (7.5 
percent).  Analysts note, however, that support for Borissov is 
soft and polls are unreliable. 
 
 
ELECTION RULES AND PROCEDURES 
 
9. (U) In addition to Sofia, mayoral by-elections will be held in 
seven other towns, the largest of which are Rousse and Razgrad in 
northern Bulgaria.  The elections are preceded by a 25-day campaign 
which began October 3.  Election results will be announced by 
municipal electoral commissions within 72 hours of the 8 p.m. poll 
closing.  Where no mayoral candidate wins more than 50 percent of 
the vote in the first round, a run-off will be held a week later 
between the two front-runners.  The winner in the run-off is 
determined by a simple majority.  The mayors will serve until the 
next regular local elections -- due in the autumn of 2007 -- 
instead of a full four-year term.  Bulgarians living abroad do not 
vote in municipal elections. 
 
ELECTION UNLIKELY TO AFFECT COALITION STABILITY 
 
10. (SBU) COMMENT: The Sofia race will likely come down to a battle 
between the popular Borissov and the Socialist candidate, but a 
surprise strong showing by any of the main center-right candidates 
is possible.  Borissov has added an element of unpredictability to 
the race, which will almost certainly be decided by a run-off. 
Whatever the outcome, analysts and party insiders say the Sofia 
election is not likely to affect the near-term stability of the 
ruling coalition, particularly since the nominees of the Socialist 
Party and Simeon's movement are unlikely to face each other in a 
run-off. 
 
LEVINE