US embassy cable - 90MOGADISHU11138

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 11138 
 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS:  PREL, PINR, PGOV, SO 
SUBJ:  NORTHERN MINISTER DEPLORES CURRENT SITUATION 
 
REF: Q MOGADISHU 08622; B) MOGADISHU 10999 
-     C) MOGADISHU 10793 
 
1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  ANOTHER OF THE YOUNGER MEMBERS OF THE 
CABINET HOLDS THE PRESIDENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
COUNTRY'S MALAISE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3. INTRODUCTION:  OVER LUNCH DECEMBER 19, ABDIRAHMAN 
JAMA MOHAMED, MINISTER OF LIVESTOCK,FORESTRY AND RANGE, 
IDENTIFIED PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE AS THE PRINCIPAL STUMBLING 
BLOCK TO PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF SOMALIA'S MOUNTING 
POLITICAL TURMOIL.  AN ISSAK FROM HARGESIA, THE 
YOUTHFUL MINISTER WARMLY BUT PRIVATELY ENDORSED FORMER 
PRIME MINISTER MOHAMMED EGAL'S PUBLIC CALL THIS WEEK 
FOR SIAD'S RESIGNATION.  ABDIRAHMAN SAID HE FOUND EGAL'S 
PROPOSED SUCCESSION SCENARIO QUITE REASONABLE.  HOWEVER, 
WHEN ASKED IF HE THOUGHT SIAD BARRE WOULD AGREE TO 
STEP DOWN, ABDIRAHMAN SHOOK HIS HEAD SLOWLY AND SADLY. 
ASKED WHAT PROCEDURE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR PEACEFUL 
RESOLUTION OF OUTSTANDING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE REGIME 
AND THE REBELS, THE MINISTER SAID SOURCES WITHIN THE 
GOVERNMENT STATE THAT THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE HAS BEEN 
RESCHEDULED FOR MID-JANUARY.  I THEN BRIEFED HIM ON MY 
DISCUSSION WITH THE EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR, WHO TOLD ME 
THAT NO NEW DATE HAS BEEN SET FOR THE PUTATIVE TALKS 
IN THE EGYPTIAN CAPITAL. 
 
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4.  CAIRO CONFERENCE:  IN DISCUSSING THE POSTPONEMENT OF 
THE MEETING IN CAIRO, THE MINISTER SAID THE ORDERS TO 
ARREST THE MANIFESTO GROUP MEMBERS CAME DIRECTLY FROM 
SIAD.  HE WAS ANGRY WHEN HE DISCOVERED THEY INTENDED TO 
CONSULT WITH THE SNM IN LONDON EN ROUTE TO CAIRO.  WHEN 
IT WAS POINTED OUT THAT REPRESENTATIVES OF THE TWO GROUPS 
CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE MET IN CAIRO AND THAT SENIOR GSDR 
OFFICIALS ROUTINELY CONTACT SENIOR SNM OFFICIALS WHEN 
IN LONDON, ABDIRAHMAN SMILED WEAKLY. 
 
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5. VIOLENCE:  IN AN EXCHANGE ON THE VIOLENCE WHICH HAS 
PROMPTED THE EVACUATION OF SO MANY FOREIGN ASSISTANCE 
PERSONNEL, THE MINISTER BLAMED THE SOMALI MILITARY FOR 
THE ONGOING MURDERS AND ROBBERIES.  HE OPINED THAT THE 
DETACHMENT RESPONSIBLE FOR SIAD'S PROTECTION, NOW 
COMPOSED SOLELY OF MAREHAN TRIBE MEMBERS, SEES THE END 
OF THE REGIME AND THEIR OWN PROTECTED STATUS COMING. 
CONSEQUENTLY, THEY ARE TRYING TO BUILD UP PERSONAL 
FINANCIAL RESERVES BY CRIMINAL ACTIVITY.  HE CLAIMED 
THAT EVEN SIAD BARRE HAS HAD PERSONAL VEHICLES STOLEN 
BY SOLDIERS ASSIGNED TO GUARD HIM.  THE MINISTER SUBSE- 
QUENTLY REQUESTED MY ASSISTANCE OBTAINING VISAS FOR 
YOUNG RELATIVES HE WANTED TO HELP LEAVE SOMALIA TO AVOID 
BOTH VIOLENCE AND BEING IMPRESSED INTO THE SOMALI 
NATIONAL ARMY. 
 
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6. AID SUSPENSION:  ABDIRAHMAN TOOK THE OCCASION TO WARN 
ME THAT MANY SENIOR MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT HOLD ME PER- 
SONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUSPENSION OF AMERICAN 
ASSISTANCE, WHICH THEY CONSIDER AN OVER-REACTION TO THE 
ONGOING VIOLENCE.  HIS ACCOUNT WAS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN 
ME A FEW DAYS EARLIER BY THE MINISTER OF MINERAL RESOURCES 
(REFTEL C).  HE ADVISED ME TO SEE THE PRIME MINISTER TO 
TRY TO CLEAR THE AIR. 
 
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7. NATIONAL PROSPECTS:  THE MINISTER'S DOWNBEAT 
ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT SCENE GAVE RISE TO EVIDENT 
PESSIMISM ABOUT SOMALIA'S FUTURE.  HE RULED OUT 
FEDERALISM AS INCONSISTENT WITH SOMALIA'S POVERTY, 
FACTIONALISM AND THE NOMADIC LIFESTYLE OF MOST OF ITS 
PEOPLE.  BUT HE RELENTED WHEN IT WAS NOTED THAT 
FEDERALISM COULD MEAN NO MORE THAN TWO FEDERATED POLITICAL 
UNITS.  HE HAD PRESUMED IT MUST ENTAIL THE ESTABLISHMENT 
OF ELABORATE GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES IN EACH OF THE 
COUNTRY'S 20 REGIONS.  HE DID STATE HIS BELIEF THAT BOTH 
THE PRIME MINISTER AND FINANCE MINISTER JAMA BARRE HAVE 
NATIONAL INTERESTS AT HEART, AND HE URGED THAT I WORK 
CLOSELY WITH THEM. 
 
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8.  HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:  IN REVIEWING WHAT DIVIDES 
SOMALIS, THE MINISTER FOCUSED ON THE DIFFERENT VALUE 
SYSTEMS TO WHICH SOMALIS WERE EXPOSED IN BRITISH AND 
ITALIAN ADMINISTERED SOMALIA.  NORTHERNERS FIND IT 
IRKSOME, HE UNDERLINED, TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOUTHERNERS, 
BECAUSE THEY APE THE ITALIANS' CORRUPTION, INCOMPETENCE, 
AND TOLERANCE FOR SHODDY WORK. 
 
 
BISHOP