US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE2623

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: LAVALAS CONFIDENT OF VICTORY, BUT WARY OF CEP 
 
 
1. (C)   SUMMARY.  Lavalas leaders Yvon Feuille, Louis Gerald 
Gilles, Rudy Heriveaux, Sorel Francois and Jonas Coffy told 
Poloffs on October 13 that they are confident of a Marc Bazin 
victory in the upcoming elections.  They believed that 
success in the Departments of the North (Cap-Haitien), 
Northeast (Fort Liberte) and West (Port-au-Prince) would 
secure enough votes for Bazin to win, followed by Simeus and 
Preval.  They expressed enthusiasm for a Bazin presidency 
with Simeus as Prime Minister.  The leaders were dismissive 
of the chances of several other candidates, including Leslie 
Manigat, Evans Paul and Charles Henri Baker.  While 
confident, they nevertheless asked Poloffs for a myriad of 
assistance, including a Lavalas seat on the Provisional 
Electoral Council (CEP) and financial assistance for 
campaigning.  The leaders asserted that Serge Gilles' Fusion 
party manipulates the CEP through its sponsored member 
Rosemond Pradel.   They claimed that the CEP left off over 75 
percent of the qualified Lavalas legislative candidates from 
the initial list of approved candidates, but they affirmed 
that Lavalas would still win around 15 of 30 Senate seats and 
40 of 100 Deputy seats.  The leaders were confident that the 
legislative branch would be composed largely of Fusion, Tet 
Ansanm (supporting Dumas Simeus), and Lavalas.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Bazin will win... 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) Gilles and Feuille were confident that Bazin would 
win, despite his previous failure against Aristide in 1990. 
Feuille said that the race would be decided among Bazin, 
Simeus and Preval.  The key to a Bazin victory, according to 
Heriveaux, is success in the North and in Port-au-Prince. 
Gilles admitted that Lavalas has problems in the Artibonite 
department, where Simeus and Preval are both strong.  Simeus 
and Preval could, however, wind up splitting the Artibonite 
vote to the benefit of Bazin.  Nevertheless, Gilles said that 
a Bazin-Simeus runoff is agreeable to them, and that a Bazin 
presidency with Simeus as Prime Minister would be good for 
Haiti.  They were dismissive of the chances of the other 
candidates of both the right and left. 
 
...unless the CEP cheats 
----------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Heriveaux feared that while Lavalas would win the 
vote, Serge Gilles' Fusion party might wind up winning the 
election.  He was referring to a widely held belief that 
certain members of the CEP, most notably Secretary General 
Rosemond Pradel, are working behind the scenes to ensure a 
Fusion victory no matter what the vote indicates.  (NOTE: the 
CEP has since reorganized with Pradel forming a part of the 
executive subcommittee. END NOTE.)  As evidence, Sorel 
Francois cited the fact that initial candidate lists 
published by the CEP conspicuously omitted all but two of 
Lavalas' 18 senatorial candidates and almost all of their 
deputy candidates.  As justification for these omissions, the 
CEP indicated that the candidates' files were missing key 
documents, in particular the financial good conduct 
disclosures from persons who had previously held office. 
Sorel Francois stated that the CEP had simply discarded these 
documents.  The leaders have received assurances that their 
candidates will be on the final lists.  Nevertheless, 
Heriveaux implored Polcouns to be vigilant with respect to 
the CEP. 
 
More Problems 
------------------ 
 
5. (C)   Sorel Francois asked if the USG could help with 
funding from UNOPS for the Lavalas campaign, stating that 
Bazin has financial problems that could hurt his campaign. 
PolCouns replied that Lavalas is one of the parties that 
UNOPS will be supporting, but pointed out that the UNOPS 
package is technical assistance, not cash.  Feuille also 
asked PolCouns to intervene with the IGOH to reactivate Radio 
Ti Moun, the Lavalas radio station that was shut down after 
Aristide's departure.  Pol FSN asked the group whether 
certain candidates will cause trouble if the elections do not 
go their way.  They unanimously responded that Evans Paul, 
Guy Philippe and Dany Toussaint can be counted upon to 
agitate, possibly violently, if their campaigns are 
unsuccessful.  Sorel Francois also stated that Lavalas would 
not be able to participate if the CEP continued to obstruct a 
large part of their candidates. 
 
The Future 
------------ 
 
6. (C)   Once the discussion veered away from the elections 
into speculation about a Bazin administration, Emboff 
cautioned them not to make the same mistakes as the previous 
administration.  He stated that Aristide,s second 
administration had failed because he had not respected the 
international donors, he had not maintained transparent 
fiscal policy, he had riddled his administration with drug 
traffickers, and Lavalas had cheated on an election that they 
would have won anyway.  The leaders concurred and made 
reference to the fact that any Lavalas government cannot 
control the entire legislature after this election.  Francois 
stated that the winning parties will have to build 
coalitions.  Feuille also made reference to another impending 
problem, the poor state of relations with the Dominican 
Republic.  Gilles and Heriveaux said that the poor relations 
are due in part to Haiti,s complete inability to control the 
border. 
 
7. (C)   COMMENT.  The CEP and IGOH have assured us that a 
substantial number of candidates excluded in the first scrub 
will be reinstated.  Post will closely review the final list 
of approved national candidates to ensure that there is no 
anti-Lavalas bias.   It was encouraging to hear these men, 
usually so single-mindedly obsessed with power, start to 
discuss constructive governance rather than overwhelming 
victory.  Gilles has previously advocated the creation of a 
&new elite8, presumably to replace the old elite, but his 
colleagues seem to understand the need to work with the 
business class.  Gilles deferred more than usual to his 
colleagues and was the first to invoke Bazin, saying "he is 
my candidate".  It appears he has rejoined the fold and will 
not follow through on his presidential aspirations.  END 
COMMENT. 
CARNEY