US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1641

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001641 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: BAYELSA GOVERNOR'S ARREST STRIKES FEAR IN THE 
HEARTS OF HIS PEERS 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The arrest of Bayelsa State Governor 
Diepreye Alamieyeseigha in London has unnerved some of his 
fellow pro-Atiku southern governors.  His interception 
abroad, where he does not enjoy constitutional immunity, has 
not only sullied the attraction of frequent travel (one of 
the governors' favored pastimes), but is causing many of them 
to rethink the wisdom of backing a retreating Atiku against a 
surging Obasanjo.  Many of them probably would have turned 
tail and angled toward Obasanjo but for his storied 
vindictiveness.  They cannot be certain if, in running to 
him, they would not be running into his hard clutches rather 
than the accepting embrace of a magnanimous chief executive 
for his prodigal junior executives. End summary. 
 
THE PRICE OF HIS SUCCESS 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) His profligacy is part of his predicament but the 
Bayelsa executive is no more spendthrift than many of his 
colleagues.  The sybaritic life has been a contagion among 
state governors.  One of the ironies is that Alamieyeseigha 
has probably performed better in the past year to 18 months 
than many of his brethren and definitely has improved over 
his earlier years.  Thus, in the minds of many Nigerians, 
Alamieyeseigha's travail did not begin in London Heathrow 
airport but with his temerity toward President Obasanjo.  The 
Bayelsa governor had been one of the earliest and most 
visible 2007 vice-presidential aspirants, journeying around 
the country drumming-up, soliciting and purchasing support 
from any quarter for this bid.  His misfortune, according to 
this rendition of the tale, was that he wanted to be number 
two to a man who just might be President Obasanjo's number 
one bete noire - Vice President Atiku.  In backing and 
indirectly campaigning for Atiku, the Bayelsa executive was 
bound to ire Obasanjo into action against him. 
 
3.  (C) Thus Governor Alamieyeseigha apparently elevated 
himself on the Economic and Financial Crime Commission's 
(EFCC) priority list.  The signs of Alamieyeseigha's 
impending woes were evident.  The EFCC had been scouring 
Bayelsa financial records for weeks.  Four state 
commissioners had been apprehended by the EFCC a week before 
the governor was stopped in London.  Reaction in Bayelsa 
State to the apprehension of the quartet was swift.  Militia 
members in Yenegoa and Port Harcourt threatened to storm EFCC 
offices.  Governor Alamieyeseigha reportedly intervened by 
telephone from his hospital bed in Germany and obtained the 
commissioners' release, forestalling potential violence. 
 
4.  (C) Alamieyeseigha's influence with the militias was due 
to his policy of co-optation of militia leaders, some of whom 
he has given government appointments in exchange for their 
cooperation and their avoidance of generalized violence. 
This policy is a double-edged sword.  While it serves to 
finance militia members and enable them to keep their 
following, it also has served to make them less violent. 
Whichever one's point of view might be, both the relative 
quiet in Bayelsa prior to the Governor's arrest and the 
tension subsequent to his detention have been influenced by 
his strategy of co-optation. 
 
APPREHENSION SEIZES THE OTHER GOVERNORS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) In the South-South and South-East, Alamieyeseigha's 
arrest has sent tremors through many of the gubernatorial 
mansions whose primary occupants are also pro-Atiku.  Many of 
the governors have been literally frozen in their tracks. 
Peripatetic governors, like Edo State's Lucky Igbinedion who 
seemingly spent as much time abroad as in their state 
capitals, suddenly have become stationary homebodies.  Rumor 
among the southern governors is that the federal government 
has provided the British authorities a hit list of officials 
to target.  Few pro-Atiku governors want to test the fates 
and find themselves situated with Alamieyeseigha. 
Predictably, tension has increased because Alamieyeseigha's 
arrest means the political stakes have been raised.  Many of 
these currently homebound governors are conferring among 
themselves trying to figure out Obasanjo's and their own next 
moves. 
 
6.  (C) Some governors will be tempted to wash their hands of 
Atiku and seek rapprochement with Obasanjo.  However, 
Obasanjo's vengefulness is proverbial.  Surrendering to him 
is no guarantee of his lenient reaction.  Meanwhile, 
pro-Atiku hardliners are trying to circle the wagons around 
their embattled mentor.  They cite the Bayelsan's arrest as 
an example of what will happen to each of them unless they 
stick together.  Taking all this together, the political 
atmosphere in southern Nigeria is one of uncertainty, fog, 
and possible shifts in allegiances. 
 
EFCC CHAIRMAN RIBADU'S ROLE? 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) EFCC Chairman Nuhu Ribadu's role in the 
Alamieyeseigha drama is unclear, but he was in proximity to 
many of it's pivotal acts.  First, Ribadu apparently spoke 
with Alamieyeseigha during the disruption concerning the 
Bayelsa State commissioners.  This was while the Governor was 
in Germany.  Ribadu also reportedly visited London prior to 
Alamieyeseigha's arrival and subsequent detention at 
Heathrow.  (Comment:  Ribadu's London itinerary is unknown, 
but his visit coming so shortly in advance of the Governor's 
arrival is not looked on by many Nigerians as coincidental. 
End comment). 
 
8.  (C) Comment:  Alamieyeseigha's arrest has frightened many 
other southern governors, who have quickly shelved their 
rather liberal international travel habits.  These southern 
governors will eschew overseas travel because they fear 
losing the protection provided by the immunity clause of the 
Nigerian constitution.  At bottom, these governors would not 
have much to worry about but for their large-scale personal 
liberality with public coffers.  However, they all see the 
latest arrest as the politically motivated use of 
international law enforcement cooperation between Nigeria and 
the UK to subdue Obasanjo foes and isolate VP Atiku.  They 
claim that Alamieyeseigha was targeted while Obasanjo allies 
have not been harassed although many of them are similarly 
culpable of like transgressions. 
 
9.  (C) Comment, continued:  Thus, the arrest gives the 
southern governors cause to mull the pros and cons of their 
allegiances with Vice President Atiku as opposed to 
attempting to get out of the Obasanjo dog house.   Whether to 
ally with Obasanjo or Atiku has been the existential 
question, and now even more so.  Not only is one's political 
future in the balance but a governor's personal freedom or 
future incarceration may be determined by the selection he 
makes.  End comment. 
BROWNE