US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8250

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES EU AND CYPRUS WITH 
SOLANA, NOV. 14 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador W.R. Pearson.  Reason: 1.5(b)(d) 
 
 
1. (C) Ambassador met Nov. 14 with EU Hirep Javier Solana to 
discuss the EU perspective on UNSYG Annan's plan for a 
settlement on Cyprus, and the prospects for progress on 
Turkey's EU bid at Copenhagen in December.  Solana noted that 
he had had separate meetings with MFA U/S Ziyal and AK 
(Justice and Development) Party leader Erdogan.  He told both 
Ziyal and Erdogan that the best time for a deal on Cyprus is 
now, and urged them both to get to work hard to "realize 
their dreams." 
 
 
2. (C) Solana offered that there are several factors at work 
that could contribute to progress on Cyprus, and thus to 
Turkey's EU prospects. 
 
 
-- He told both Erdogan and Ziyal that Turkey would be hard 
pressed to find better, more reasonable people on Cyprus 
issues than UNSYG Annan and Greek PM Simitis. 
 
 
-- In Solana's view, Ziyal understands the stakes and will 
push his bureaucracy as hard as he can toward a settlement. 
Ziyal, he added, is encouraged: 1) by the imminent departure 
of the lame-duck, hawkish Ecevit caretaker government; 2) 
that the inertial "TRNC President" Denktas has been largely 
sidelined due to his health problems; and 3) that AK, with 
its huge Parliamentary majority, has no fixed view on Cyprus, 
which provides for some potential flexibility. 
 
 
-- Erdogan also appears committed to moving ahead on Cyprus, 
though Solana volunteered that he was not sure about "the 
white haired fellow" advising the AK leader.  (Comment: 
Solana was referring to Yasar Yakis, the 
conventionally-minded retired MFA careerist who is now AK 
Vice Chairman for foreign affairs -- that is, barbarian 
handler/liaison to the Kemalist foreign policy establishment. 
 End comment).  Solana opined that caretaker FM Gurel's 
public criticism of the UNSYG plan could cause some political 
problems for Erdogan. 
 
 
-- Solana told his Turkish interlocutors that moving ahead on 
ESDP is not a precondition for a decision by the EU at 
Copenhagen to announce a date to begin formal accession 
talks, but that it would send the right signal as to Turkey's 
willingness to comply with EU requirements. 
 
 
3. (C) Solana emphasized that he did not want to oversell 
either the prospects for a solution on Cyprus or for Turkey's 
EU candidacy, noting that the internal EU debate on Turkey 
would be a contentious one in any event.  He thought that a 
visit by Prodi to Turkey before Copenhagen would be 
inappropriate, but that perhaps Verheugen could come to 
Ankara. 
 
 
4. (C) Comment: While Solana's tough message to the Turks 
contained nothing substantively new, he appeared to come away 
from his meetings here encouraged that the next GOT will at a 
minimum be more willing than the Ecevit crew to consider 
moving ahead on Cyprus.  It is not clear, however, that he 
did a lot of listening.  He was mainly in transmit. 
PEARSON