US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4343

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004343 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Shia Islamists, Elections 
SUBJECT: AT LATE HOUR, UNITED SHIA LIST STILL IN FLUX 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford, for 
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Shia Islamists from the United Iraqi 
Alliance have still not settled on an electoral 
alliance as the clock ticks down on the coalition 
registration deadline.  The last-minute IECI decision 
to extend that deadline to 28 October will provide 
more room for the Shia to narrow differences and 
attempt to reach a joint list but there are 
indications that the grand coalition that dominated 
the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) may split. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) Leading SCIRI official Humam al-Hammudi is 
leading efforts to negotiate an acceptable level of 
representation for each Shia Islamist group on a joint 
list, but he has not yet closed a deal.  Leading 
Sadrist and TNA member Baha al-Araji told Poloff 
October 19 that the process will crystallize soon.  He 
said there was a "high possibility" that Muqtada al- 
Sadr supporters would ally under a competing, 
independent list.  Fadila Party leader Nadim al-Jabiri 
told PolFSN October 19 that his group has still not 
made a final decision on its electoral alliances. 
Jabiri all but ruled out participation in Allawi's 
coalition and complained that the Allawi conference 
took place too late in the game to produce productive 
negotiations. 
 
3. (C) Deputy Fadila leader Muhammad Ismael predicted 
to PolFSN on October 20 that the Sadrists will break 
with the coalition, possibly hand-in-hand with the 
Da'wa Party.  In response, he expected SCIRI to help 
lead a coalition that includes most of the groups in 
the former coalition while drawing in some new 
independent and Sunni leaders.  Ismael said that 
Fadila is still considering running solo. 
 
4. (C) As if to confirm Ismael's rumor of a broader 
but split Shia coalition, non-Islamist Shia leader 
Najib al-Salihi, leader of the hitherto unsuccessful 
Free Officers and Civilians Movement, told Poloff 
October 19 that he has been invited to join the Shia 
coalition.  Salihi said Shia leaders claim privately 
that they intend this time to keep secular leaders, 
not clerics, at the forefront on the candidate lists. 
Shabak leader and current TNA member Haneen Qeddo told 
Poloff on October 20 that he saw little alternative 
but to remain in the Shia coalition in the coming 
elections, an indication that even in Mosul he needs 
the a stronger partner to help him compete with the 
Kurdish alliance.  Qeddo said the Shia coalition has 
still not come together and may yet fail to congeal in 
time for the registration date. 
 
5. (C) Comment: The Shia Islamists are working to 
unite ranks, but appear fractured in three camps led 
respectively by SCIRI, Fadila, and the Sadrists.  They 
may seek a middle road, forming one coalition list 
with representatives from all sides alongside 
independent lists representing each party. 
Satterfield