US embassy cable - 05MINSK1286

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/15 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, ECON, BO, CH 
SUBJECT: China Q Belarus Relations: Politically Strong, 
Economically Weak 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: On October 14 the newly arrived Chinese 
Ambassador candidly discussed Chinese-Belarusian relations. 
He asserted his main task is to increase Belarusian Q 
Chinese economic ties to balance the strong political ties 
between Minsk and Beijing.  He complained that this would 
be an impossible task, as Belarus' deteriorating command 
economy has nothing to offer China's growing market 
economy.  A recent Chinese business delegation toured 
Belarus looking for investment opportunities and went home 
empty handed.  Despite a close political friendship, the 
Chinese Embassy faces the same highly bureaucratic hurdles 
faced by the Western embassies in securing a meeting with 
GOB officials.  The Chinese Ambassador said the GOB was 
more bureaucratic now than ten years ago, and was even 
worse than Tadjikistan.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) On October 14 the new Chinese Ambassador to Minsk, 
Wu Hong Bin, paid a courtesy call on Ambassador.  Wu had 
previously served in Minsk in the mid-1990s.  Most recently 
he served in Tajikistan.  Wu speaks excellent Russian and 
was surprisingly candid in his remarks. 
 
 
Close Political Ties, but No Good Food 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) China and Belarus already have strong political 
relations, for which Wu made no apologies.  China has no 
qualms about supporting "Europe's Last Dictator."  [Note: 
As a sign of these close ties, a Chinese delegation is 
currently in Minsk discussing terms for a USD 60 million 
soft loan to renovate the TETS-2 power plant in Minsk.] 
However, this close political friendship is a source of 
much aggravation for Wu and his embassy.  Many Chinese 
delegations come to Minsk to prove their friendship, but, 
given the lack of decent Chinese restaurants, Wu complained 
his embassy has to feed them all.  Therefore he goes to 
Vilnius every ten days to purchase food. 
 
 
Economic Ties a Problem 
----------------------- 
 
4. (C) Wu claimed his main task is to improve trade and 
economic relations between Belarus and China, to bring them 
to the level of the political relationship.  However, Wu 
anticipates this will be an impossible task.  Compared to 
ten years ago, Wu said the Belarusian economy now has 
little to offer China.  The Soviet economic mindset 
remains, and Belarusian technology that may have been of 
interest ten years ago has deteriorated, while Chinese 
standards and demands have risen.  A recent delegation of 
businessmen from China's regions toured Belarus for over a 
week.  When they returned to Minsk, they told the 
Ambassador they could find nothing of interest in the 
country for purchase or investment.  Wu said that when he 
presented his credentials, Lukashenko urged him to attract 
Chinese businesses to buy Belarusian goods and invest in 
Belarusian companies, "as a window to the European market." 
Wu said he realized he could not tell Lukashenko Belarus 
has nothing to offer China, nor did China need Belarus as a 
window to European markets, and so he simply nodded.  Wu 
worried how he can satisfy both Beijing and Minsk and build 
economic ties when the Belarusian economy has nothing to 
offer China.  He anticipates a difficult tour. 
 
5. (C) Wu believes soon even Russia will lose interest in 
inferior Belarusian goods.  Belarus cannot keep pace 
globally with its command economy.  Russia keeps Belarus 
afloat through energy subsidies, a growing market and a 
preferential trade relationship.  Wu speculated that should 
Russia ever force Belarus to pay world prices for energy, 
and if Russian buyers shopped elsewhere, the Belarusian 
economy would collapse. 
 
 
Belarusians Still Must be Belarusian 
------------------------------------ 
 
6. (C) Despite the close friendship between their 
 
countries, Wu complained about how bureaucratic official 
Belarus has become.  He is unable to approach Belarusian 
ministries or officials directly, but must instead work 
through the MFA, which is very argumentative and slow. 
Shaking his head, he commented that things are much worse 
now than ten years ago, and claimed even the Tajiks were 
more open and less bureaucratic.  Wu stated all the 
officials he has met suffer from arrogance, and added, 
"While it is good to be proud, one should have something to 
be proud of." 
 
7. (C) Comment: It would be hard to imagine Beijing giving 
the Lukashenko regime any sort of tough political message. 
China seems to think that domestic politics are not a 
matter for foreign policy concern.  However, the fact that 
Chinese diplomats and businessmen are critical of Belarus' 
command economy and are no doubt passing some of these 
feelings to their Belarusian interlocutors reinforces the 
message that Lukashenko is isolating Belarus from the 
world.  Belarus' potential export markets are shrinking. 
Given time this could become a catalyst for change.  Also 
telling is how the GOB treats its "close friends" in the 
Chinese Embassy.  The regime seems determined to face the 
world proudly but increasingly alone. 
 
 
KROL