US embassy cable - 05ANKARA6370

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006370 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, IZ, SY, TU, SYRIA 
SUBJECT: TURKEY SUPPORTS UNIIIC MISSION, VIEWS IMPACT ON 
SYRIA WITH TREPIDATION 
 
REF: DAMASCUS 5373 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b, 
d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Turkey supports the UNIIIC investigation into the 
Hariri assassination and is anxiously awaiting publication of 
the Mehlis report.  The GOT will examine the report carefully 
before commenting but expects it to detail direct links to 
high Syrian officials.  Turkey is apprehensive about the 
potential for instability on its borders should the Baathist 
regime in Syria falter and sees no clear alternative to 
Bashar al-Assad.  Turkey will continue to talk to Syria and 
would prefer to see U.S. policy focus on changing Syrian 
behavior vis-a-vis Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel/Palestine rather 
than pursuing what it perceives as a policy of "regime 
change." End Summary. 
 
Turkey will Examine Mehlis Report Carefully 
------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Poloff solicited Turkish MFA views on possible 
developments in Syria following publication of the Mehlis 
report from MFA Middle East Department Head Sedat Onal on 
October 20.  Onal began by pointing out that Turkey had 
contributed one staff member to the UNIIIC team and fully 
supported the UN investigation into the Hariri assassination. 
 He said the MFA is convinced the UNIIIC mission sets a 
positive precendent in a region sorely lacking in political 
accountability structures and could serve as a deterrent to 
others contemplating destabilizing Lebanon and the broader 
region.  He suggested the MFA was prepared for the Mehlis 
report to expose linkages to high Syrian officials.  He said 
the GOT will keep a low profile on the issue, however, and 
refrain from commenting or making judgments until it has 
thoroughly examined the Mehlis report. 
 
Turkey Supports U.S. Goals -- but with Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3.  (C)  Onal stated the GOT agrees with all U.S. goals with 
regard to changing Syria's behavior vis-a-vis its neighbors, 
but insists that Turkey can best serve these goals through 
dialogue and quiet but firm persuasion.  Turkey must look at 
Syria as a neighbor, and not just an unpleasant regime in the 
Middle East.  In this regard, Turkey will continue to act 
cautiously and will do nothing to contribute to further 
instability on its borders.  Acknowledging that direct 
pressure, such as Turkey's massing of tanks and troops on the 
Turkey-Syria border in 1998 to force Syria to expel PKK 
terrorist leader Ocalan, could also be effective, Onal 
cautioned that the "dosage" must be carefully modulated.  He 
added that this was particularly important as no one can be 
sure what will happen if/when the current regime falls. 
 
Focus on Changing Regime Behavior, not Regime 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  According to Onal, the region would be best served 
by focusing on the immediate goals, shared by the U.S. and 
Turkey among others, which are to get Syria to behave more 
constructively in Iraq, to end its support for extremists in 
the Palestinian territories, and to fully remove its 
remaining security/intelligence presence in Lebanon.  He 
reiterated GOT concern that the U.S. is pushing for regime 
change in Syria and the results will be unforeseeable and 
likely dangerous for the region. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C) Conscious of our views on Syria, Turkey has continued 
low-level contacts with Damascus, including a recent visit by 
Syrian Deputy PM Dardari (reftel) to discuss economic 
cooperation, but appears to be avoiding higher-level contacts 
for now.  The GOT will be interested in our reaction to the 
Mehlis report, will likely share our assessments, but may 
draw quite different conclusions on measures to be taken 
against Syria should the report clearly implicate the highest 
levels of the Assad regime in the Hariri assassination. End 
Comment. 
MCELDOWNEY