US embassy cable - 05SANJOSE2451

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CS 
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT CALDERON RELEASED FROM HOUSE 
ARREST 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 2412 
 
     B. SAN JOSE 646 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  As presaged in Reftel A, former President Rafael Angel 
Calderon (1990-94) was released from house arrest on October 
19, 2005, under conditions similar to those imposed on 
ex-President Miguel Angel Rodriguez.  Specifically, Calderon 
is prohibited from leaving the country or having any contact 
with witnesses or co-defendants, and must appear in court 
every fifteen days.  In another parallel to the Rodriguez 
case, Calderon was released two days shy of his one year 
anniversary in preventative detention.  Calderon was arrested 
on October 22, 2004, and held in La Reforma prison until 
March, 2005, when he was transferred to house arrest at his 
own domicile.  Calderon is under investigation for corruption 
and influence peddling for allegedly receiving some USD 9 
million as a "consulting fee" for helping to broker a loan 
for medical equipment purchases from Finland.  No formal 
charges have yet been filed. 
 
COMMENT 
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2.  With the release of Rodriguez and Calderon at the outset 
of national election season, it is unclear what role, if any, 
the two former presidents will play in the national debate. 
Ricardo Toledo, the candidate from the ex-presidents' Social 
Christian Unity Party (PUSC), has been unable to muster 
strong support within the party, and as a result is currently 
drawing only seven percent of likely voters in recent polls. 
This is not likely to change, as Calderon, who continues to 
wield considerable power within the party, is unlikely to 
back Toledo.  He (and possibly Rodriguez) might, however, 
play a role in legislative elections.  With their release, 
they have become marginally less damaged goods, and could 
work behind the scenes to consolidate party support for PUSC 
aspirants to the Legislative Assembly.  But even under the 
rosiest of such scenarios, the party would not win more than 
ten seats in the 57-member body, substantially down from the 
19 that PUSC won in the last election. 
FRISBIE