US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA9896

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 009896 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, PTER, ECON, CO, 2006 Elections 
SUBJECT: COURT SAYS CONSTITUTION HAS BEEN REFORMED TO ALLOW 
REELECTION 
 
REF: A. BOGOTA 9321 
     B. BOGOTA 8695 
     C. BOGOTA 8241 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  On October 19, the Constitutional Court 
ratified legislation reforming the Constitution to allow 
presidential reelection, including for incumbent President 
Uribe.  A final legal hurdle for Uribe is the Court's 
approval of reelection implementing legislation, a decision 
that is due by November 11.  Legal observers think reelection 
cannot be blocked now, although some dust could still be 
kicked up over "fair treatment" for all Presidential 
candidates.  In terms of the Presidential race, Uribe will be 
the overwhelming favorite.  The Democratic Pole and Liberals 
will run candidates, but the field of Liberal aspirants might 
change.  A victorious Uribe could secure majorities in both 
houses in the March elections.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The Court's October 19 decision in favor of 
reelection, in a 7 to 2 vote, was the penultimate step in 
allowing President Uribe to run for reelection in May 2006. 
(Note:  Additional sub-decisions were made, with slightly 
different vote outcomes.  End Note.)  Court approval of 
implementing legislation (known here as the "guarantees" law, 
or ley de garantias), due by November 11, is the sole 
remaining legal hurdle.  While a negative Court ruling on 
implementing legislation would be a setback (and might 
provoke heated legal debate here), the majority of our legal 
contacts concur that Uribe would still be able to run in 
2006, as the Constitution has formally been reformed to 
permit reelection.  Uribe allies in Congress, we are told, 
are preparing additions to pending electoral code legislation 
in a parallel effort to stave off legal challenges. 
 
3.  (U) President Uribe reacted positively but quietly to the 
Court's decision, and noted that he desired that Congress 
approve a reform (defeated in a previous session) to allow 
for reelection of governors and mayors as well.  All major 
opposition leaders announced their parties would respect the 
Court's decision.  However, former President Cesar Gaviria, 
head of the Liberal Party (PLC), Senator Antonio Navarro, 
Democratic Pole (PDI) Presidential nominee, and Senator 
Carlos Gaviria, head of Democratic Alternative (AD), all 
publicly disagreed with the merits of the decision.  Cesar 
Gaviria was strongly critical of alleged pressure tactics 
used against the Court by the GOC and Uribe loyalists. 
 
4.  (C) Uribe goes into the May 2006 election as the 
overwhelming favorite, with a consistent approval rating of 
over 70 percent and support for his reelection at a similar 
level.  The Democratic Pole will run Navarro.  The party is 
interested in increasing its Congressional numbers, and views 
running a Presidential candidate as crucial in the 
vote-garnering effort nationwide.  The Liberal Party, one of 
Colombia's two traditional parties, will also run a candidate 
and work hard to expand its numbers in Congress as a 
counterweight to Uribe's coalition.  The party will choose 
its candidate in March, as part of the Congressional voting. 
Two-time Presidential nominee (1998 and 2002) Horacio Serpa, 
the current front-runner for the nomination, has said that he 
will continue in the race, but party insiders have suggested 
that Serpa may drop out, to avoid a second electoral 
confrontation with Uribe.  Two-time former Bogota mayor and 
independent Antanus Mockus is a wild card who is rumored to 
be considering a run. 
 
5.  (C) The leading pro-Uribe parties (Ref B) will be 
well-positioned to be majorities in both houses of Congress 
beginning in July.  But cohesion of those majorities might 
still be an issue.  Uribe's break with the traditional 
pork/patronage Executive-Legislative relationship has 
strained his dealings with Congress on numerous occasions 
over the last three years, and many members will be reelected 
in 2006. 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  This is an historic change based on support 
for Uribe and consequent confidence in Colombia's government 
and governability.  But Uribe is not yet on the ballot and 
has not formally confirmed he is a candidate.  When he does 
so, we will treat this as any other election, in which we 
support institutional democracy, but have no candidate of our 
own. 
WOOD