US embassy cable - 02ABUJA3105

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2007 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: "PATRIOTS" ASK OBASANJO TO 
FOREGO SECOND TERM 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
 
1.  ( C)  Summary: Chief Frederick  Rotimi Williams, prominent 
Lagos attorney and charter member of the "Patriots", a group of 
prominent Southern and Middle Belt figures, told Ambassador Jeter 
on October 21 that the "Patriots" had issued a public statement urging 
President Obasanjo not to seek re-election because his quest for re- 
election was creating too much political tension.  Moreover, the 
"Patrots" believe that and that the time is now ripe for a President 
from the South-South.  Despite championing a South-South 
Presidency, Williams could not readily name one viable candidate 
from that region.  As part of their deliberations on reducing electoral 
tension, the "Patriots" also proposed single term limits for the 
President and State Governors.  Williams likewise called for a 
National Conference to explore constitutional changes that would 
allow all geopolitical zones equitable participation in national 
leadership.  Williams felt that former military Head of State, Ibrahim 
Babangida, as well as current Vice President Abubakar 
Atiku would be unacceptable presidential candidates in the South. 
Joining the Ambassador at the October 21 meeting were PolCouns 
and Lagos PolOff. End Summary. 
 
 
 
 
2.  (C)  During a visit to Lagos, Ambassador met Chief Rotimi 
Williams at his law firm on October 21, to discuss the "Patriots"' 
October 15 press statement.  Williams, an imposing man with a 
venerable presence, told the Ambassador that the "Patriots" saw 
Obasanjo's quest for a second term as the primary factor in 
Nigeria's roiling political equation.  If Obasanjo disavowed his 
ambition, politics would calm considerably, Williams stated.  Thus, 
for the sake of political sobriety and  equilibrium, the "Patriots" 
concluded that Obasanjo should forego a second term.  Williams 
continued that, by eschewing a second term, Obasanjo would be 
helping to forge a new political reality in Nigeria.   For the next 
elections and for the first time in Nigerian history, the Presidency 
should go to the South-South. By stepping aside, Obasanjo would be 
helping to facilitate this unprecedented development.   According to 
Williams, the struggle for national power in Nigeria has been a 
struggle between the three most important ethic groups: North/Hausa- 
Fulani, Southwest/Yoruba and Southeast/Igbo.  Consequently, the 
victorious political alliance would always be the one that joined two 
of these three dominant groups.  Competition for national political 
power has always centered on these groups with the usual winning 
combination being a North/Southeast axis, leaving the Yoruba as the 
odd man out. 
 
 
3. (C)  The North has used its perceived numerical majority to claim 
superior, almost exclusive, title to national power, the veteran lawyer 
argued.  Unfortunately, "The [purported] Northern majority has not 
been properly taught how to exercise its majority right," he asserted. 
This numerical majority had been used to gag the political aspirations 
of the lesser ethnic groups, and because the larger ethnic groups were 
not adequately enlightened, Williams saw a one-term presidency to be 
rotated among the six geographical zones as key to a more equal 
distribution of national power. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
THE "PATRIOTS": AN OCCASIONAL GATHERING OF 
EMINENT PEOPLE 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
 
4.   (SBU)   The "Patriots" are an informal group that meets on an ad 
hoc basis to discuss national issues.  Originally, the group had 
seventeen members drawn  predominantly from the South and Middle 
Belt.  In the years since its 1998  inception, the group has only 
publicized the results of their deliberations on two previous 
occasions.  Thus, the "Patriots" October 15 recommendations that the 
President and Governors be limited to one five year terms attracted 
significant media attention and have helped generate much public 
debate.  A look at the credentials of some members of the group 
shows why its opinions matter. 
 
 
--The current Chairperson is Chief Frederick Rotimi Williams, one of 
Nigeria's 
most eminent lawyers.  Williams has served in senior government 
positions since the mid-fifties and was Chairman of the Constitutional 
Committee that drafted the 1979 Constitution. 
 
 
--Chief Richard  Akinjide is also a prominent attorney and recently 
represented Nigeria before the International Court of Justice in the 
dispute between Nigeria and Cameroon over the Bakassi peninsula; 
 
 
--Chief Felix Ibru is from a wealthy family that owns "The 
Guardian", the second largest newspaper in Nigeria, as well as the 
Lagos Sheraton; 
 
 
--Chiefs Abraham Adesanya and Ayo Adebanjo are members of the 
preeminent Yoruba group, Afenifere; 
 
 
--Professor Ben Nwabueze, lawyer, businessman, and professor of 
constitutional law is General Secretary of Ohaneze Ndigbo, the Igbo 
leadership group from the Southeast region. Nwabueze  is a long time 
associate of former Head of State Babangida; 
 
 
--Dan Suleiman is retired military and a prominent Middle Belt figure 
remembered  for having been forced into exile for having opposed 
late military dictator, Sani Abacha; and 
 
 
--Chief Matthew Tawo Mbu has had a long and successful career as a 
businessman and head of many government Ministries.  He is from 
Delta State in the South-South region and is the leader of the Union 
of the Niger Delta, a leading socio-cultural group much like Afinefere 
and Ohange. 
 
 
EVERYONE SHOULD GET THE CHANCE TO BE PRESIDENT 
 
 
5.  (C) The dominance of national power by the three biggest blocs 
has progressively embittered the Southern minorities, according to 
Williams. Although the South-South was the fount of the nation's 
wealth, it has remained economically poor and politically 
disadvantaged.  Continuation of this unjust situation would speed the 
day of Nigeria's social and political explosion, he warned.   Thus, the 
"Patriots" hoped that a South-South President would emerge in 2003. 
While the "Patriots" realized they were asking Obasanjo to give up 
his personal right to contest for office, rising dissatisfaction among 
the minorities in the Delta could lead to violence, Williams feared. 
Obasanjo should sacrifice his personal desires for the national good. 
"Now is the time to rotate the Presidency to the South-South region, 
"the Patriots have all agreed  that, to continue as a nation, the 
ethnic 
minorities must be heard." 
 
 
6. (C)   However, the articulate Williams stammered when the 
Ambassador asked him to identify a viable candidate from the South- 
South.  Williams could only respond that he hoped the South-South 
would put forward a credible candidate if given the opportunity.  He 
expressed confidence that there were qualified people in 
the South-South. These politicians should be given a chance at 
national leadership and not excluded simply because they did not 
have enough ethnic kinsmen to buoy their political status. 
 
 
7. (C)   Ambassador asked if a minority candidate from the South- 
South region might raise public fears in other zones that this area had 
finally gotten control of the oil revenue and would try to monopolize 
it.  Williams countered that a candidate from the South-South would 
bring the issue of resource and revenue allocation into the arena of 
public debate.  "We believe," he said, "that there should be a budget 
allocation to the Federal Government derived from the resources of 
each state."  But the each State should be the primary 
beneficiary of resources within its borders.  Off-shore resources, he 
continued, must be controlled by the Federal Government because 
only the Federal Government can and should maintain the functions 
such as border patrols and coast guard necessary to protect those 
resources. 
 
 
 
 
8. (C)  Williams continued that the "Patriots" had long supported a 
"National Congress" to allow all groups, but especially ethnic 
minorities, to "air their views and political aspirations,"  and 
propose 
changes to the constitutional structure to allow fuller participation 
and 
end the alleged "second class" political status of the ethnic 
minorities. 
The Constitution should be changed so that every group has an 
opportunity to qualify for leadership of the country. 
 
 
OBASANJO VS. THE "PATRIOTS" 
 
 
9. (C) When the Ambassador asked Williams about Obasanjo's 
reaction to the Patriot's suggestion, Williams said Obasanjo rejected 
it.   The President felt he had a right to contest and did not want to 
surrender that right.  Obasanjo had been personally affronted and 
"very annoyed" because many of the "Patriots" were long-time 
friends and associates.  He felt the "Patriots" should have 
discussed their proposal with him privately before going public. 
Williams contended that this was not a private matter but an issue of 
national concern requiring public debate.  Ambassador Jeter 
questioned whether the fact that prominent members of Afenifere 
were part of the "Patriots" group would hurt Obasanjo's  bid 
for re-election in that it looked like some important Yorubas were 
now against him. (Comment.  Afenifere is the most influential 
organization in the Yoruba Southwest.  Although Yoruba, Obasanjo 
did not carry this region in the 1999 elections.  The Alliance for 
Democracy (AD), which is closely associated with Afenifere, controls 
most of the Southwest.  End Comment.) 
 
 
10.  (C )  Williams explained that the "Patriots" opposed the 
impeachment threat against Obasanjo because it was ill-timed, based 
on questionable motives, and could raise ethnic tensions. The 
impeachment was perceived in the Southwest as an assault by 
Northern politicians against a Yoruba, albeit not a very popular one. 
Thus, the "Patriots" opposed  impeachment because it would damage 
the political system in their  view;  they opposed Obasanjo's second 
term for the same reason, he contended.  When asked whether the 
"Patriots" "tried to save Obasanjo (from impeachment)  so that he 
could sacrifice himself ( not seek reelection)," Williams nodded in 
agreement. 
 
 
WELL ALMOST EVERYONE 
 
 
 
 
11.   (C )  The Ambassador asked Williams whether the South would 
accept former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida or current Vice 
President Abubakar Atiku as President.  Williams was adamant that 
elevation of either to the Presidency would risk "the unity of the 
nation."  Despite the current four years of a Yoruba President, the 
"Patriots" believe that the Northern "ruling class" had held power for 
too long; now was not the time for a Northern President.  When asked 
about a candidate from the Southeast, Williams stated that since the 
Igbos have only held power during the abbreviated Ironsi military 
government in the sixties, an Igbo President would not be 
objectionable.  He noted several possible candidates from the Igbo 
Southeast.  When asked about reports that the North was courting the 
Southeast to finger a pliable Igbo candidate and that the "Patriots" 
stance could actually be facilitating this agenda, Williams shrugged, 
acknowledging the possibility. 
 
 
12.  (C)  There is no significant political event in Nigeria without 
the 
Babangida factor attached to it. The Patriot's statement is no 
exception.  Rumor has it that IBB warned Igbo members of the 
"Patriots" that power would shift to the North in 2007 for at least 
eight years.  Thus, the chances of these old men seeing an Igbo 
President within their lifetime was nil unless that happened in 2003. 
Consequently, when the "Patriots" met, the Igbos unleashed a brutal 
indictment of Obasanjo which changed the course of the discussion 
toward the eventual conclusion that Obasanjo should not run. 
However, some "Patriots" were angered by the group's statement. 
They claimed they were not invited to the meeting because of their 
alleged pro-Obasanjo tendencies, and they have publicly disavowed 
the October 15 statement. 
 
 
 
 
COMMENT 
 
 
13. (C)  The "Patriots" like many other groups are trying to help 
Nigeria find a way out of its current political impasse.  However, 
despite the claim to be elder statesmen, the "Patriots" are not a 
detached, dispassionate group.  The October 15 statement was 
peppered by political considerations.  For a variety of reasons, many 
"Patriots" dislike Obasanjo and the October 15 statement reflected 
that.  Because it was endorsed by some prominent Yoruba figures, it 
caused Obasanjo some unexpected damage.  However, given the 
fluidity of political events now, that damage might not be permanent 
as the memory of the statement is eclipsed by the frenzy of other 
political events. 
 
 
14 . (C)  On another level, Williams' assertion about a South-South 
Presidential candidate and the end to the top three ethnic groups' 
dominance seemed surprisingly naive if taken at face value.  Clearly, 
not all the "Patriots" agreed with this position. Last week, Ohaneze 
Ndigbo met with the Northern leadership group, Arewa 
Consultative Forum.  That meeting produced a public statement 
against Obasanjo's second term.  We can be almost certain that the 
participants also discussed conditions for resurrecting the North- 
Southeast political axis that has been successful in the past. 
Contrary 
to Williams' assertion that the "Patriots" back a South-South 
Presidency, the Ohaneze leadership has been carrying the torch for an 
Igbo Presidency and it is doubtful that Ohaneze will voluntarily 
extinguish that flame. 
 
 
15. (C)  Perhaps Williams has staked out this position in order to 
hedge  possible Yoruba  political  losses.  Maybe he and others sense 
that Obasanjo is a less than an even bet ( a growing belief among 
political pundits, even some of Obasanjo's own men).  Instead of 
backing the wrong horse, some Yorubas may have decided to 
champion the idea of a South-South Presidency as the best possible 
alternative. If the Igbos were convinced this was a good option, this 
plan of a united South would keep national power in the South, thus 
preventing the historic North-Southeast alliance that has often 
resulted in the Yoruba Southwest being on the losing side of national 
elections. Second, a South-South presidency would keep power out of 
Igbo hands. For historic reasons, Yorubas and Igbos do not repose 
much trust in each other. Yoruba Leader Olufemi Awolowo 
undermined the Igbo leader Nnandi Azikiwe's quest for national 
power in the late sixties. Since then, political cooperation between 
the 
two groups has been minimal.   Older Yoruba leaders like Williams 
probably still fear that the Igbo still bear a grudge. Moreover, the 
Yorubas may back the idea of a South-South minority President 
because they believe they can influence a South-South incumbent. 
The Southern minorities historically have been wary of  Igbo 
domination, and are more comfortable with  the Yorubas  If this is 
Williams' tack, then his support for a South-South President is not 
based on principles of fairness for the ethnic minorities but concern 
that the North- Southeast alliance not be repeated to the detriment of 
Southwest in the 2003 elections. 
JETER