US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8163

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008163 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, EAID, AEMR, KISL, PTER, PBTS, IN, PK, Kashmir, Indo-US, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: USG QUAKE ASSISTANCE CAN HELP BUILD GOODWILL IN J&K 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 8122 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 7990 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: The October 8 earthquake that carved a 
path of destruction through Kashmir continues to claim lives 
as the death toll continues to rise.  A USAID/OFDA team 
completed a rapid assessment in J&K (Ref A) and reports more 
extensive damage and a slower humanitarian assistance 
response to outlying villages than local press coverage has 
conveyed.  The situation on the ground offers a unique 
opportunity for a swift and appropriate USG response to this 
crisis that can help alleviate suffering and generate 
goodwill among the people of J&K, many of whom continue to 
harbor suspicion about the US.  Septel USAID/OFDA cable will 
include a detailed technical assessment of what will most 
benefit the Indian earthquake victims and how it can best be 
provided; the purpose of this cable is to flag the intangible 
benefits of USG assistance, (including possible 
military-to-military activities) toward achieving political, 
public diplomacy, and development goals in J&K provided that 
we act quickly to meet demand while the door remains open to 
us.  End Summary. 
 
Saving Lives 
------------ 
 
2.  (U) The earthquake is almost two weeks past, but numerous 
opportunities remain to save lives.  Many Indian Kashmiris 
are suffering from the onset of winter,s first snows, and 
exposure is a risk for many who lack permanent shelter, warm 
clothing, heating equipment and fuel.  Furthermore, although 
we do not yet see reports of widespread disease, 
camp-dwelling populations will be at risk of any fast-moving 
outbreak.  Many villagers living in remote hamlets have 
reportedly still not received any relief.  The Indian Army is 
the most effective aid team the GOI has to offer in J&K, and 
they service more than a dozen villages a day.  Indian media 
have reported unusually positive Kashmiri comments on the 
Army's relief role.  However, the Army will be unable to 
provide sufficient and appropriate long-term shelter and 
supplies to the entire affected population of approximately 
200,000 before winter snows hamper operations, beginning in 
three to five weeks. 
 
Gaining Goodwill 
---------------- 
 
3.  (U) Swift and effective USG aid will help offset negative 
local opinions of America.  Some of our Kashmiri contacts, as 
well as journalists already critical of Washington, have 
unfavorably (and unfairly) contrasted our disaster assistance 
to J&K with the aid earmarked for Pakistan, where admittedly 
the human toll and monetary losses are exponentially higher. 
As our Kashmiri contacts point out, J&K is one of the few 
strife-torn areas in the Muslim world where the US is 
generally welcomed and US policy enjoys broad support.  A 
rapid USG response, to regions where GOI assistance has yet 
to reach many of the injured and displaced Kashmiris, will go 
a long way toward further winning the hearts and minds of 
Kashmiris, who are already disenchanted with 16 years of 
militancy (Ref B).  They are an audience waiting to be 
convinced.  Coupled with a substantial expansion of NGO 
program assistance we can make significant inroads with this 
very visible and vocal segment of India,s Muslim population. 
 
 
4.  (U) Urgent needs include winterized tents, shelter and 
building supplies, blankets, medical care, warm clothing, and 
psychological-social counseling.  (NOTE: The National 
Disaster Management Authority, the nodal agency coordinating 
earthquake relief, informed us that the J&K government would 
not submit a request for tents, saying "they have it all 
under control."  End Note.)  In addition, due to the 
mountainous terrain, the damaged infrastructure, and the 
continuing tremors, transportation of supplies and services 
is a major constraint. 
 
5.  (SBU) To date, $600,000 in U.S. assistance from OFDA has 
been provided to India for earthquake relief.  USAID is 
proposing additional grants to NGOs working in the area, also 
through OFDA.  Additional U.S. Government support, especially 
to NGOs established on the ground in J&K, would help meet the 
urgent needs of affected communities and would demonstrate 
U.S. commitment and solidarity with those impacted by the 
earthquake. 
 
6.  (SBU) Another avenue we are exploring informally is 
military-military assistance.  Given the positive reaction 
(in J&K and more widely through positive press reporting in 
India) to the Indian Army,s rescue work, there may be a role 
for PACOM under the umbrella of our recently launched 
disaster assistance initiative.  Unlike our assistance to 
NGOs, we will need to receive an official request from the 
GOI for all mil-mil assistance. 
 
Security Concerns Not Insurmountable 
------------------------------------ 
 
7.  (U) Terrorism is not uniformly distributed in J&K.  For 
example, the Kupwara area is a well-used terrorist 
infiltration route into J&K from Pakistani Kashmir, and 
therefore the site of terrorist attacks and confrontation 
with Indian security forces.  In contrast, Uri, which lies on 
the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad cross-LoC bus route, is a far more 
secure town.  Because of this, the Indian Army has been able 
to invest in local projects in Uri, including schools, and is 
viewed more positively by the local residents than in some 
other districts, which also makes Uri less attractive as a 
base from which terrorists can operate.  Security in J&K is a 
concern, and assistance will have to be coordinated with J&K 
police, but this is one operational element to be considered, 
and not insurmountable. 
 
Comment: Time is of the Essence 
------------------------------- 
 
8.  (U) Snows are already blocking some roads, and 
transportation problems will only worsen as winter sets in 
and aftershocks continue to make overland travel risky, 
costly, and time-consuming.  The window of opportunity to 
save lives and be seen to be doing so is closing within the 
next few weeks.  The U.S. Mission in India urges the 
strongest possible Department support for OFDA 
recommendations for increased, immediate USG assistance. 
BLAKE