US embassy cable - 05ROME3512

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003512 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PINS, ASEC, IT, ANTITERRORISM/FORCE PROTECTION 
SUBJECT: ITALIANS WONDERING IF THEY'RE NEXT 
 
REF: ROME 3137 
 
Classified by Political Minister-Counselor David D. Pearce, 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S)  Summary.  Both center-right and center-left 
politicians remain focused on the possibility of a major 
terror attack in Italy in coming months.  An adviser on 
Middle East Affairs in the prime minister's office told us he 
sees a high possibility of an Al-Qaida attack somewhere in 
Italy during the Olympics in February or just before national 
elections here next spring.  Italian security forces were 
doing everything possible to prevent such a contingency, but 
it was difficult to defend against.  In the same vein, a 
center-left parliamentarian said that while there was no 
specific information about a possible attack during the 
Olympics or elections, it was the government's analysis that 
this could be a particularly "delicate moment".  The prime 
minister's adviser felt the domestic political fallout of an 
attack was unpredictable; Italy was not the UK, nor was it 
Spain.  He said center-left and center-right politicians 
alike tended to be nonpartisan in their support of 
counter-terrorism action.  Whether the Italian presence in 
Iraq came in for increased criticism, in his view, would 
depend on the opposition leadership.  Other analysts point 
out that such an attack -- or even heightened concern and 
chatter about the prospect -- could strengthen the 
center-right's prospects at the polls.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (S)  An adviser on Middle East Affairs in the prime 
minister's office October 18 told Pol M/C he thought there 
was a high possibility of an Al-Qaida attack somewhere in 
Italy during the Olympics or just before national elections 
here next spring.  Stressing that he spoke privately, the 
adviser noted that the pattern with al-Qaida until now has 
been that it follows through on its threats, and Italy has 
been specifically cited (reftel).  He noted that the Olympics 
in February and national elections in the spring (note: April 
9 is the expected date for legislative elections.  end note) 
were obvious targets of opportunity.  Italian security forces 
were doing everything possible to prevent such a contingency, 
but it was difficult to defend against.  "I take the train 
and metro every day," he said.  "It would be very easy for 
someone to get a bag of explosives on board." 
 
3.  (S)  What was less clear, he said, was what the impact 
would be of any attack.  Italy was not the UK, where the 
citzenry quickly rallied behind the government after the 
London underground bombings.  Nor was it Spain, where the 
government had blundered and angered the public by initial 
efforts to blame the al-Qaida terrorist action on Basque 
separatists.  It was not inconceivable that some politicians 
on the left would point the finger at the Italian presence in 
Iraq as making Italy a target.  (Note: The center-right has 
also criticized talk of troop withdrawal by center-left 
politicians as inviting attacks.  End note.)  But politicians 
of both the center-left and center-right tended to be 
nonpartisan when it came to support for counter-terrorism 
action.  Moreover, he noted, many voters would understand 
full well that the aim of an attack would be to undermine the 
Berlusconi government and accelerate Italian troop withdrawal 
from Iraq.  That could actually trigger a backlash of support 
for the center-right, as well as higher voter turnout, which 
generally favors the center-right. 
 
4.  (U)  Meanwhile, Italian newspapers reported Interior 
Minister Giuseppe Pisanu's meeting October 18 with the 
bicameral parliamentary oversight committee for the security 
services.  Pisanu told the legislators there was no specific 
evidence, but the security forces will be especially alert 
during the Winter Olympics in Turin and the elections.  The 
head of the oversight committee, center-left parliamentary 
Enzo Bianco, said, "there are analyses, not precise 
information.  But international terrorism continues to choose 
moments of particular exposure for any country, and it's 
clear that (for Italy) this could be the most delicate 
moment." 
 
5.  (S)  The prime minister's adviser said it was difficult 
to predict the domestic political fallout of any attack; 
Italy was not the UK, nor was it Spain.  Center-left and 
center-right politicians alike tended to be nonpartisan in 
their support of counter-terrorism action.  The extent to 
which the Italian presence in Iraq became a greater issue 
would depend on the opposition leadership. 
 
6.  (S)  Comment:  To date, we have no specific threat 
information about potential attacks on Americans at the 
Olympics, and the interagency Galileo intelligence unit being 
established at Embassy Rome for the games will compile 
threat, and disseminate law enforcement, information 
releaseable to the Italian authorities to assist them in 
deterring attacks in Italy.  All sides of the political 
spectrum here seem to recognize that Italy may be under 
heightened threat in coming months.  Some, like the prime 
minister's adviser, point out that an attack could lead to 
stepped-up criticism of the Italian role in Iraq.  Others 
point out that such an attack could actually backfire and 
strengthen the center-right's prospects at the polls.  Others 
point out that an actual attack, or even heightened concern 
about security and terrorism, could generate a higher voter 
turnout.  This, in turn, would help the center-right, whose 
voters tend to be less ideologically motivated than those on 
the left.  End comment. 
 
 
 
SPOGLI