US embassy cable - 05ANKARA6337

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006337 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PINS, PREL, TU, POLITICAL PARTIES 
SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT ANAP: A TURKISH BEE RISES FROM THE 
ASHES 
 
REF: ANKARA 4497 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b, d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Over the past several months, more than 20 
Turkish MPs have defected to the ostensibly center-right, 
liberal, and democratic Motherland Party (ANAP), giving ANAP 
the right to form its own group in the Turkish Grand National 
Assembly (TGNA).  As an official parliamentary group, ANAP, 
whose party symbol is a bumblebee, will receive speaking time 
on the floor, members on the TGNA,s committees, a larger 
state financial subsidy, and other benefits.  For now, the 
ANAP group will not affect governing AKP,s dominance in the 
TGNA.  ANAP faces considerable obstacles to re-emerging as a 
force in Turkish politics.  The party,s current ideology is 
unclear, its membership diverse, it is hindered by a legacy 
of political corruption, and many question the political 
skill of current party leader Erkan Mumcu.  But if ANAP can 
get its act together, it will be plus for the Turkish 
political process.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Under official Turkish parliamentary rules, a party 
with 20 or more MPs is able to form a party group.  ANAP 
surmounted that hurdle on October 13 when Huseyin Ozcan 
(Mersin MP; formerly CHP) and Goksal Kucukali (Istanbul MP; 
formerly AKP) became the twentieth and twenty-first MPs to 
join ANAP.  A twenty-second MP, Hasan Ozyer (Mugla MP; 
formerly AKP) announced he would join the party on October 
19.  Official "group" status allows ANAP to receive speaking 
time on the floor of the assembly, members on TGNA 
committees, a larger financial subsidy from the State, and 
other benefits.  ANAP,s new status raises the number of 
official party groups to three: the other two party groups 
are the governing and Islam-influenced Justice and 
Development Party (AKP) with 355 MPs and the main opposition 
center-left Republican People,s Party (CHP) with 154 MPs. 
AKP MP and TGNA Interior Committee Chair Akbulut told us he 
expects the only effect of the new parliamentary group will 
be more extended debate, now that the ANAP group also has the 
right to speak. 
 
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ANAP,S MIXED LEGACY 
------------------- 
 
3. (C) Turgut Ozal founded ANAP in 1983.  The party won the 
general election later that year with 45.1 percent of the 
vote and ANAP formed a single-party government with Ozal as 
prime minister.  In the 1980s and 1990s, ANAP was a liberal 
and patriotic center-right party that consistently advocated 
liberal economic reforms (including privatization), 
democratization, and strong U.S.-Turkish relations.  ANAP was 
a secular party, but, under Ozal, also had a reputation for 
tolerating increased public expression of Islamic piety. 
ANAP was also strongly in favor of Turkey signing the Customs 
Union with the EU and, later, pursuing EU-oriented political 
and economic reforms. 
 
4. (C) ANAP is also associated with political corruption. 
Corruption is endemic in Turkey, but many Embassy contacts 
assert that political corruption exploded under Ozal.  As the 
1990s progressed, ANAP became increasingly associated with 
political corruption and scandal. 
 
5. (C) In every election since 1983, the level of electoral 
support for ANAP has declined: ANAP received 36.3 percent in 
1987, 24 percent in 1991, 19.7 percent in 1995, and 13.2 
percent in 1999.  In 2002, ANAP received only 5.1 percent of 
the vote, failing for the first time to cross the 10 percent 
electoral threshold required to win seats in parliament. 
ANAP,s declining popularity was due to several factors, 
including the return to the electoral arena in 1987 of 
politicians and parties banned after the 1980 coup; Ozal,s 
death in 1993; the failure of a series of coalition 
governments that included ANAP in the 1990s; and increasing 
allegations of political corruption. 
 
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MUMCU TAKES OVER 
---------------- 
 
6. (C) On March 17, Erkan Mumcu and four other MPs officially 
joined ANAP (reftel).  Soon afterwards, Mumcu was elected 
party leader.  By June 1, the party had 11 MPs and it 
accumulated 17 MPs by the end of August.  Mumcu deserves 
credit for successfully targeting and eventually persuading 
21 MPs to join his party.  The hard part will be persuading 
the Turkish people to support ANAP.  Public opinion polls 
from earlier this summer indicated that less than 10 percent 
of the population supports ANAP. 
 
7. (C) Mumcu, a lawyer by training, is 42-years old; his wife 
does not wear a headscarf.  He was elected to parliament in 
1995 and 1999 on the ANAP ticket, but later defected to AKP 
and was elected to parliament on the AKP ticket in 2002.  He 
has served as a minister in several cabinets and covered a 
variety of portfolios, including Culture, Tourism, and 
National Education. 
 
8. (C) Many Embassy contacts have suggested that Mumcu is too 
young, too elitist, and too ambitious to successfully lead 
his party.  Former ANAP minister Lutfullah Kayalar, for 
example, told PolOffs that many ANAPers from the Ozal era do 
not trust Mumcu and are keeping their distance from the 
party,s current administration.  Other contacts have noted 
that Mumcu, who is well educated, lacks the common touch and 
uses a type of rhetoric that appeals to elites, but puts off 
the common man.  Mumcu also suffers from the fact that he 
switched parties (twice), which alienates old-timer ANAPers 
like Kayalar and gives many Turkish voters the impression 
that he is an overly ambitious opportunist. 
 
---------------- 
WHO JOINED ANAP? 
---------------- 
 
9. (C) ANAP,s parliamentary delegation is a mixed bag of 
refugees from other parties.  The delegation includes 
classical liberals, nationalists, leftists, conservatives, 
and social democrats, and consists of former members of AKP, 
CHP, center-right True Path Party (DYP), ultra-nationalistic 
National Action Party (MHP), Social Democratic People's Party 
(SHP), and even one member who use to be the chairman of the 
tiny Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).  One of the only things 
ANAP,s MPs appear to have in common is their alienation from 
the leadership of the other parties and a proclivity for 
switching parties -- fully 21 of the 22 ANAP deputies have 
been members of other parties during this parliamentary 
session; four have switched at least twice. 
 
10. (C) Of the 22 MPs who joined ANAP from March 17 to 
October 19, 12 were originally elected on the AKP ticket, 
eight were originally elected on the CHP ticket, and two were 
elected as independents.  ANAP,s deputies are more likely to 
represent the Kurdish southeast and less likely to represent 
Turkey,s largest cities than the average MP.  Forty-one 
percent (9 of 22) of ANAP,s MPs represent the southeastern 
part of the country, compared to about 24 percent of TGNA 
deputies overall.  Twenty-eight percent of MPs come from one 
of Turkey,s five largest provinces (Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, 
Bursa, and Konya), but only four of ANAP,s 22 MPs (18 
percent) represent these populous areas. 
 
------------------------------- 
WHAT DOES ANAP STAND FOR TODAY? 
------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Unlike in the 1980s, what ANAP stands for now in 
terms of ideology and public policy preferences is unclear. 
Contacts from outside ANAP have remarked that the party lacks 
an ideological core -- as the AKP TGNA Interior Committee 
Chair put it, the ANAP appears to be "an apple, a pear, an 
eggplant and a tomato."  Another contact commented that he is 
unsure what ANAP stands for, but he is certain it is no 
longer the liberal democratic party of Ozal.  In a recent 
speech, Mumcu, in an attempt to define the party, said that 
ANAP occupies the "national center" of the political 
spectrum.  Emin Sirin, an ANAP MP who jumped ship from AKP 
early on and is rumored to be in line to become the party,s 
group leader in parliament, paused for several seconds when 
PolOffs asked him to describe ANAP,s ideology before saying 
the party is "economically liberal" and "socially socialist," 
but also "national" without being "nationalist."  Edip Safder 
Gaydali, ANAP MP and VP for political affairs, told PolOffs 
that ANAP is an economically liberal and internally 
democratic party that will follow in the tradition of Ozal. 
Mehmet Erdemir, ANAP MP and VP for women and youth, told us 
that ANAP is building on the Ozal legacy and trying to build 
a grand democratic party based on a diverse coalition. 
 
12. (C) This confusion extends beyond mere ideological 
labels.  For example, in conversations with us, Sirin was 
quick to condemn the recent EU negotiating framework and had 
almost nothing positive to say about the EU.  Gaydali, by 
contrast, expressed some concerns about the EU, but was at 
pains to emphasize that the EU process is important to 
Turkey,s modernization. 
 
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ANAP,S FUTURE 
------------- 
 
13. (C) ANAP,s main goal does not appear to be additional 
recruitment of MPs from AKP and CHP.  ANAP MP Dursun Akdemir 
told us that ANAP,s aim was to recruit enough 
parliamentarians to form a party group and then focus on 
party building in advance of the next election.  Forming a 
parliamentary group, he said, was an important goal because 
it would give ANAP more visibility and press coverage, but 
the real focus needs to be on building the party at the 
grassroots and not recruiting and endless stream of dissident 
MPs.  This sentiment was echoed by AKP MP Mehmet Erdemir. 
The additional funds ANAP will receive from the state because 
it is now an official parliamentary group will also aid 
ANAP,s party building goal. 
 
14. (C) There are also rumors that former PM and ANAP leader 
Mesut Yilmaz may try to take over the party at next year,s 
party convention if corruption charges against him are 
dropped.  Although Yilmaz is clearly associated with liberal 
reform and strongly supports Turkey,s EU candidacy, he is 
tainted by allegations of corruption that will not go away 
even if he is cleared by the courts.  Yilmaz,s residual 
strength within the party is untested, but he may be able 
threaten Mumcu,s leadership. 
 
15. (C) Comment: ANAP's future is unclear.  Mumcu deserves 
credit for successfully recruiting enough MPs to form a party 
group -- something other leaders of small parties have been 
unable to do -- and some of the criticisms of his leadership 
style and potential may be rooted in jealousy.  The real test 
for Mumcu, however, lies ahead.  The party must now focus on 
developing a coherent set of policy positions that address 
the concerns of average Turks; sell these positions to the 
public in a coherent manner; and recruit and train the new, 
young cadres necessary to build a strong grassroots 
organization.  Even if Mumcu and ANAP accomplish these tasks, 
they will still need considerable skill -- and some luck -- 
to successfully challenge the AKP juggernaut and reclaim the 
lost glory of the Ozal years.  However, an ANAP bumblebee 
reborn, with a clear party ideology, could make a useful 
contribution to the rather lackluster Turkish political 
scene.  End Comment. 
MCELDOWNEY