US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI2076

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002076 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, PREL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: BJP TROUBLES CONTINUE AS IN-FIGHTING ERUPTS OVER LEADERSHIP 
IN MADHYA PRADESH 
 
Summary 
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1.  (SBU) Firebrand politician Uma Bharati, the deposed former 
chief minister of Madhya Pradesh (MP), has launched a public 
fight to return to power, embarrassing her Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP) in the process and dividing its MP members into two 
camps.  Bharati succeeded in getting the support of a large 
number of BJP parliamentarians, and rumors have circulated that 
Congress would be willing to support a Bharati-led government if 
she and her supporters decided to break away from the BJP.  The 
national BJP leadership interceded and threatened her supporters 
with disciplinary action.  It now appears that both sides of the 
Bharati debate have decided to table their battle until after 
the last round of Bihar elections on November 19.  If Bharati's 
past behavior gives any indication of her future plans, however, 
we can expect her to make herself heard again after the truce 
expires and launch yet another attempt to be reinstated as chief 
minister in Bhopal.  The internal battle over Bharati is yet 
another symbol of the fractures within the BJP as it struggles 
to re-define its role in Indian politics.  End summary. 
 
Background: Firebrand Bharati's Attempts to Regain Power 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (SBU) Uma Bharati was elected as the first female chief 
minister of Madhya Pradesh in December 2003.  Bharati is viewed 
as a firebrand politician from a so-called backward caste with a 
broad grassroots base in a party whose top leadership - with the 
notable exception of president LK Advani - are mostly upper 
caste Hindus with little individual political base of their own. 
 In August 2004, facing a sudden arrest warrant on a 10-year old 
charge, Bharati stepped down under pressure from the BJP 
national leadership.  Many of her supporters believed that 
Bharati fell victim to a dirty political trick played on her by 
second-rung MP BJP leaders who felt threatened by Bharati's 
popularity.  The current MP chief minister, Babulal Gaur, took 
over from Bharati.  Within a month, she was acquitted and 
demanded reinstatement, but the BJP stood by her hand-selected 
successor. 
 
3. (SBU) On the losing end of backroom party machinations, 
Bharati began publicly airing her grievances, and ultimately 
incurred a party suspension in December 2004 for confronting BJP 
leaders on television.  As a populist, Bharati continues to 
enjoy strong grass-roots support with lower caste groups.  In 
late summer, the BJP leadership decided to capitalize on her 
popularity to support the party's campaign efforts in Bihar, 
since Bharati's mass appeal and caste credentials are seen as a 
valuable counterweight to rival parties there. 
 
Internal BJP Dispute Erupts over Bharati's Political Future 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
4. (SBU) In the past week, however, new public sparring erupted 
between the BJP's pro- and anti-Bharati factions, as the first 
round of the Bihar elections was set to begin.  The media 
reported that party president LK Advani discussed - and may have 
endorsed - reinstating Bharati as chief minister during an 
October 15 meeting of BJP general secretaries.  Advani may have 
recognized Bharati's continued grass-roots appeal with voters 
and many BJP MLAs in the MP state parliament, whereas current CM 
Gaur is viewed as less popular and far more subservient to the 
Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) and its leader KS Sudarshan, 
with whom Advani remains in a tense rivalry. 
 
5.  (SBU) Bharati herself has never given up on her attempts to 
regain power, and may have demanded the CM job in return for her 
support of the BJP in Bihar.  In any case the party's 
second-rung leadership vigorously opposed Advani's attempt to 
placate Bharati.  According to one party insider, the 
second-rung leadership successfully argued that the party should 
not contemplate any leadership changes until the Bihar elections 
conclude on November 19.  Post sources have told us that the 
delay is actually an ploy by Bharati's opponents to sabotage her 
attempts to regain power.  Moreover, RSS leader Sudarshan, while 
not in attendance at the event, reportedly opposed Advani taking 
any major decisions, such as replacing chief ministers, two 
months prior to his announced resignation as BJP president. 
 
6. (SBU) Perhaps smelling a rat, Bharati bolted from the general 
secretaries' meeting and unsuccessfully sought an audience with 
 
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Sudershan.  Spurned by the RSS leader, Bharati published a 
letter instigating a public signature campaign to remove Chief 
Minister Gaur from office.  According to news reports, within a 
day over 80 BJP parliamentarians had signed on to Bharati's 
letter.  Bharati reportedly had the support of three state 
ministers and several former ministers.  Bharati also leaked a 
letter she wrote to the RSS chief in which she criticized RSS 
leaders for unfairly interfering in MP BJP affairs, echoing 
earlier complaints that party president Advani had made 
regarding RSS interference in party matters. 
 
7. (SBU) In response, the BJP immediately called another general 
secretaries' meeting on October 17 and announced that the party 
 
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had not received a "proposal" for any leadership changes. 
Observers clearly understood the statement to mean that the 
party is using a matter of procedure to avoid controversy, as 
Bharati's letter is not a "proposal" under party rules -- a 
technicality that does nothing to conceal the fact that over 
half of the party's MP members openly revolted.  Afterwards, the 
BJP president for MP held individual woodshed meetings with 
signatories to explain that the national leadership is in no 
mood to hear their demands, and a BJP spokesperson warned that 
"disciplinary action [will be] taken against those who have gone 
public."  The party was also rumored to have yanked Bharati from 
campaigning in Bihar, but later said that she would continue to 
campaign there as originally planned. 
 
Congress To Support a Breakaway Bharati Government? 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
8. (SBU) Embassy Delhi reports that there is growing speculation 
in the capital that Bharati has opened negotiations with 
Congress, which may be prepared to back Bharati if she broke 
with her supporters to form a new government in MP.   While the 
Congress had reportedly indicated it would support her 
government from the outside, Delhi's sources believe that 
Congress actually hoped to split the BJP in MP, destroying its 
credibility there, and then, at an opportune time, pull out and 
bring Bharati down.  However, in a series of meetings in Bhopal 
on October 19 Bharati's supporters decided to bide their time 
until after the final round of the Bihar elections on November 
19.  Staunch Bharati supporters gave clear statements indicating 
that they would prefer to fight from within the party, squashing 
rumors of an impending breakaway BJP government with outside 
Congress support. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (SBU) The BJP appears to have decided to bury its differences 
over Uma Bharati until after the Bihar elections.  The party, 
already weakened by a variety of internal power struggles and 
its future course in serious dispute, cannot afford to implode 
in MP during the critical Bihar elections.  Bharati seems 
determined to regain the CM position in Bhopal, however, and if 
her past behavior offers any guidance, we can expect her to make 
herself be heard after November 19.  Bharati's machinations will 
now move from public view to behind closed doors, making it more 
difficult to determine whether she has enough backing to compel 
the BJP leadership, either under lame-duck Advani or a new 
leader, to reinstate her as CM.  Despite her grassroots appeal, 
Bharati remains a loose cannon, a nuisance and perhaps even a 
threat to much of the BJP second-tier leadership.  With this 
group and the RSS against her, she is fighting an uphill battle. 
  The party is unlikely to silence her, however, and she will 
continue to disrupt the BJP.   Uma Bharati's plight is another 
visible symbol of the BJP's internal fractures as it attempts to 
re-define its place in Indian politics.  End comment. 
 
OWEN