US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1832

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001832 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  PRO-LTTE MP INDICATES CONCERN AT 
POSSIBLE RAJAPAKSE POLLS VICTORY 
 
REF: A. COLOMBO 1779 
 
     B. COLOMBO 1819 
 
Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
1.  (SBU) On October 19 poloff met in Colombo with Pathmini 
Sithamparanathan, Tamil National Alliance (TNA) MP from 
Jaffna, and her husband, Professor K. Shivakumaran, who 
teaches drama at Jaffna University.  The couple told poloff 
they were in the capital to meet with a number of "Sinhalese 
friends" in different political organizations, including the 
pro-Marxist/nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), to 
explain the views of local residents in Jaffna regarding the 
impending November 17 presidential election.  (Comment: 
Given the geographical and ideological proximity of TNA MPs 
to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), TNA 
discussions of "local views" generally echo Tiger talking 
points and can thus provide a window into current LTTE 
thinking.) 
 
2.  (C) The pair expressed dismay at the hard line on the 
peace process adopted by Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) 
presidential candidate and current Prime Minister Mahinda 
Rajapakse (Ref A).  In general, the pair averred, people in 
north are not interested in the outcome of the election. 
Having given up their demand for a separate state, the Tamil 
people can accept nothing less than some kind of federal 
system that allows them the right to self-determination, they 
asserted.  An SLFP victory at the polls would be disastrous 
for the peace process, the couple hinted.  The international 
community, including the U.S., should prevail on outgoing 
President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga to work with 
opposition United National Party (UNP) presidential candidate 
Ranil Wickremesinghe to present the LTTE with a viable 
proposal based on a federal system, they urged.  Poloff 
responded that bipartisan consensus on the peace process is 
important and desirable but emphasized that the U.S. does not 
favor one candidate over another.  The U.S. will work with 
whomever is elected to advance the peace process; the crucial 
thing is that the polling be free, fair and non-violent.  She 
asked if the LTTE would support that goal by refraining from 
intimidation and allowing Sri Lankan voters in Tiger-held 
territory to cross over to polling booths on the government 
side.  Sithamparanathan asserted vigorously that the Tigers 
had no interest in obstructing the vote, since doing so would 
only help Rajapakse.  Instead, the couple claimed, the real 
danger is that Sri Lankan Army (SLA) soldiers and anti-LTTE 
Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) activists, knowing 
that Tamils in LTTE areas will likely vote for the 
opposition, may attempt to interfere. 
 
3.  (C) Professor Shivakumaran asked (somewhat wistfully) if 
the LTTE were to encourage people to vote, would the 
international community view such action favorably and 
re-engage with the Tigers.  Having known the LTTE for a long 
time, he said, he could see that its members' thinking was 
changing, albeit gradually.  Shunning the LTTE now could 
retard that positive development, he suggested.  Like many 
Tamils, the professor said, he does not agree with everything 
the Tigers do but nonetheless believes the LTTE is the only 
organization capable of securing an equitable settlement for 
his community.  Poloff noted that the Tigers would have to 
undertake a number of other measures--such as renouncing 
violence in word and deed--before the U.S. could engage with 
the Tigers.  That said, the Tigers could demonstrate their 
commitment to the peace process by not impeding the vote. 
When asked who they think will win the presidential election, 
the pair looked troubled and said they believe it will be 
close.  Even though they declared the UNP can count on the 
minority vote (which they quickly enumerated by district) and 
a good percentage of the majority vote as well, they both 
expressed concern that Wickremesinghe would fail to pull 
through. 
 
4.  (C)  With respect to the killings of the two high school 
principals in Jaffna (Ref B), Sithamparanathan and her 
husband expressed bemusement at attempts in some Sinhalese 
and English newspapers to assign blame to the 
LTTE--especially since the Kopay College principal was an 
LTTE supporter.  Other reports in the English and Sinhalese 
press that the Tigers had imposed a draconian "Taliban-like" 
dress code on female Tamils were equally erroneous, they 
said.  Since female Tiger cadres themselves wear trousers, 
how could the LTTE prohibit other women from doing the same, 
Sithamparanathan observed.  Such misleading press reports are 
part of an ongoing campaign from Sinhalese nationalist 
quarters to distort what is actually happening in the north, 
they asserted. 
 
5.  (C) Comment:  Tiger thinking and behavior at any given 
time are hard to predict, but TNA representations can offer a 
window, however incomplete, into LTTE views.  The couple's 
obvious concern at the prospect of a Rajapakse victory--and 
their broad hints that the international community thus ought 
to support the UNP--suggest parallel concerns may exist in 
Kilinochchi.  The pair's almost plaintive plea for 
recognition of LTTE non-interference in the polling could 
indicate that the Tigers are feeling the sting of the 
near-universal international condemnation--including the EU's 
September 26 declaration of a travel ban--following the 
Kadirgamar assassination.  We can only hope that the Tigers 
are as concerned as the TNA delegation suggested and will 
refrain from impeding the polling. 
LUNSTEAD