US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1831

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001831 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKAN ELECTION SURVEY REVEALS GREATER VOTER 
CONFIDENCE IN UNP, BUT NO CLEAR LEADS 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1779 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Lunstead for reasons 1.4, b and d. 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Results of recent polls indicate that a 
cross-section of Sri Lankans have greater confidence in the 
opposition United National Party's (UNP) ability to control 
the cost of living and negotiate a peace agreement with the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the two most 
important issues in the upcoming November 17 election, but 
there is no clear lead for either Presidential candidate.  A 
USAID-sponsored "Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Survey" by 
the Colombo-based Center for Policy Alternatives predicted 
that if the election were held tomorrow, there would be no 
clear winner between UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe and 
the Sri Lankan Freedom Party's (SLFP) Mahinda Rajapakse. 
This suggests that the minority vote could be decisive in the 
election, although 13% of voters are still undecided. 
Comprehensive polling is a relatively new phenomenon in Sri 
Lanka, and the rise of mobile phone technology is leading to 
a growth in media-sponsored SMS polling around the country. 
In two such SMS polls, a Maharaja Group of Companies gave the 
UNP's Wikremesinghe the clear lead, while a state-owned Sri 
Lanka Rupavahini Corporation poll predictably favored 
Rajapakse.  End Summary. 
 
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If the Election Were Tomorrow... 
It Would Be Too Close to Call 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On October 19, the Colombo-based Center for Policy 
Alternatives submitted to the Mission the "Concise Report" of 
the results of a USAID-sponsored "Knowledge, Attitude and 
Practices Survey" (KAPS) 2005 covering 3,500 voter views on 
election issues, the peace process and tsunami 
reconstruction.  The full results will not be publicly 
available until December, but the "Concise Report" reveals 
several conclusions regarding the November 17 presidential 
election.  According to the poll, if an election were held 
tomorrow, 34 percent of Sri Lankans would vote for UNP 
candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe, compared to 26.5 percent who 
would vote for the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate 
Mahinda Rajapakse.  However, when votes for the Sri Lankan 
Muslim Congress (SLMC), which supports the UNP, and for the 
nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which signed an 
electoral pact with the SLFP, are considered, the votes for 
either candidate are approximately equal.  After factoring in 
a margin of error and 13 percent of undecided voters, USAID 
Program Officer Mark Silva concluded the survey results are 
too close to predict a winner. 
 
3.  (C) The close survey results may indicate that the Tamil 
vote, represented in the 6.7 percentage of votes for the 
Tamil National Alliance (TNA), could be the decisive vote in 
the election.  Sumith Guruge, Director of Spence Macholdings 
Ltd. and political spectator, commented that the Sinhalese 
are roughly divided between the two candidates, and thus the 
minorities are bound to determine the winner.  In addition, 
these surveys were conducted in August, before the SLFP 
candidate Rajapakse signed electoral pacts (Reftel) with the 
JVP and the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU).  Guruge predicted 
that SLFP's return to its nationalistic roots may alienate 
Sri Lankan minorities, leading more minority and undecided 
voters to vote in favor of the UNP. 
 
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Greater Confidence In UNP On Economy and Peace Process 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4.  (C) KAPS 2005 drew several conclusions about voter's 
priorities in the upcoming elections.  According to the 
survey, the most important issues in the election are the 
rising cost of living (53.7 percent) and the peace process 
(28.4 percent).  On both issues, the majority of Sri Lankans 
believe the situation is the same or worse than one year ago. 
 83.1 percent of voters think the cost of living has 
increased, with slightly higher numbers among rural Sri 
Lankans.  On both of these issues, more Sri Lankans trust the 
UNP, with 37 and 41.1 percent of voters most confident in the 
UNP's ability to, respectively, control the cost of living 
and negotiate a peace settlement with the LTTE.  (Before the 
2004 Parliamentary poll, voters had more confidence in the 
UNP on peace but strongly favored the SLFP on economic 
issues.)  Even among supporters of the current government, 
76.9 percent of SLFP and 81.5 percent of JVP supporters think 
the cost of living has worsened in the last year. 
Interestingly, only 8.8 percent of Sri Lankans prioritize 
tsunami reconstruction. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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SMS Polls: The New Sri Lankan Election Craze 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) The popularity of affordable SMS messaging has led a 
number of media companies to conduct SMS polls to gauge 
voters' presidential preferences, but the results have been 
widely mixed and unreliable.  The Maharaja Group of Companies 
(which is closely linked to the UNP) and the state owned Sri 
Lanka Rupavahini Corporation have sponsored the first 
country-wide presidential election SMS polls with 
diametrically opposite results.  Susara Dinal, the Director 
of News for Maharaja Television Network (MTV), one of the 
group's seven media stations, told Poloff in a phone 
conversation that 100,000 voters gave Wickremesinghe almost 
70 percent of the vote.  (Comment: Obviously, this poll is 
biased in favor of urban, mobile phone users who are more 
likely to watch Maharaja programs and traditionally support 
the UNP.  End Comment.)  Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation 
Director General and political appointee Nishantha Ranatunga, 
on the other hand, stated that the state-owned media 
company's poll of 35,000 voters favored the SLFP candidate by 
70 percent.  Ranatunga defended the results by explaining 
that Rupavahini hired a private company to conduct the polls, 
but also admitted that he fears that Rajapakse's pact with 
the JVP and JHU has "alienated the minorities" and is a 
"great loss" to the SLFP. 
 
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Comment: Economy Versus Peace Process 
-------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) According to KAPS 2005, almost half of all Sri 
Lankans think the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) has reduced the 
level of violence in the country and improved ethnic 
relations.  Surveyors expected this to translate into a 
better standard of living, but surprisingly, 77.8 percent of 
those polled believe their standard of living has remained 
the same or deteriorated since the CFA.  This helps explain 
why, at a very controversial time in the peace process, more 
Sri Lankans view the economy as the number one issue in this 
election.  Although the survey reveals that people are more 
confident in the UNP on economic issues as well as the peace 
process, political pundits continue to predict an extremely 
close election. 
LUNSTEAD