US embassy cable - 05KATHMANDU2293

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
NSC FOR GREEN 
LONDON FOR POL: BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, NP, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: PARTIES PAN POLLS, PLAN MAOIST DIALOGUE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 2229 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (C) On October 19, seven party alliance leaders officially 
announced they would boycott municipal elections set for 
February 8 and would hold dialogue with Maoist rebels with 
the immediate objective of prolonging the Maoist's unilateral 
cease-fire so that a conducive atmosphere for dialogue could 
be created and confidence building measures could be 
explored.  UML General Secretary MK Nepal told us that 
villagers supported the political parties and would join 
protests in large numbers.  While suspicious of Maoist 
intentions, MK Nepal argued that parties must engage as 
Maoists may be ready for peace.   End Summary. 
 
Seven Party Alliance Boycotts February Municipal Elections ... 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
2. (U) In their first meeting following the King's holiday 
message announcing parliamentary elections and the date for 
municipal elections (reftel), seven party alliance leaders 
officially announced on October 19 that they would boycott 
municipal elections.  Their statement said that the 
announcement of parliamentary and municipal elections was 
"the King's tactic to prolong his autocratic regime" and was 
"meaningless" in the present situation.  MK Nepal told the 
press, "We will not only boycott the unconstitutional polls, 
but will not let the polls happen anywhere at any cost."  The 
alliance announced an aggressive series of "active protest 
programs," including mass gatherings in all municipalities 
from December 11, to garner public support against the 
proposed municipal polls. 
 
... And Plans Dialogue with Maoists for Peace 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (U) In the October 19 meeting, the seven party alliance 
officially decided to hold dialogue with the Maoists.  The 
alliance statement said, "We declare that special initiatives 
will be taken immediately for dialogue with Maoists to make 
the cease-fire fruitful."   Amik Sherchan, Chairman of 
People's Front Nepal, told the media that the alliance gave 
responsibility in writing to top Party leaders to perform all 
necessary tasks for the talks.  He said that the immediate 
objective of the dialogue was to convince Maoists to prolong 
their unilateral cease-fire to create a conducive atmosphere 
for dialogue so that confidence building measures could be 
explored.  Party leaders said that for security reasons they 
would not make public the date or venue of talks, nor the 
names of those participating.   Sherchan said, "We will 
assess the situation first and also may invite international 
observers to ensure security if deemed necessary."   MK Nepal 
told the media that Parties would approach Maoist leaders 
immediately to finalize the date and place of talks which 
would be decided "soon." 
 
MK Nepal: Parties Have Large Rural Base of Support ... 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
4. (C) MK Nepal told the Ambassador that over the recent 
Dasain holiday he had visited all 24 Village Development 
Committees (VDC)in his electoral district of Rautahat, in the 
Terai region of central Nepal, for the first time in years. 
MK Nepal reported that he found a strong base of support 
everywhere he visited, with 500 to 2,000 people greeting him 
in each VDC.  Villagers told MK Nepal that they did not 
support the King's proposed elections and would participate 
in demonstrations called by the Parties.  MK Nepal said that 
the UML would focus protests in various regional hubs, such 
as Biratnagar, Pokhara, and Nepalgunj, with the goal of 
gathering 50,000 people in each place.  He  hoped each local 
UML group would compete with neighboring UML groups and NC 
groups to get the most people to participate in these 
rallies. 
 
... And Can't Rule Out Maoists Genuinely Want Peace 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
5. (C) MK Nepal also told the Ambassador that the parties 
remained suspicious of Maoist intentions but were continuing 
contact, to find out whether the Maoists were seeking peace. 
The UML leader believed that some Maoists were ready to give 
up the armed struggle, though Prachanda appeared to be taking 
a harder line.  MK Nepal opined that the Parties should 
support a constituent assembly election to call the Maoists' 
bluff.  He said that if the Maoists sequestered arms and 
allowed international observers, there could be elections to 
a constituent assembly.  He argued that local party cadre 
could monitor Maoist actions in the villages.  If Maoists did 
not allow cadre in villages, the Parties would know the 
Maoists were not sincere. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (C)  The parties are playing with fire, hoping that if 
they increase pressure on the King by seeking rapprochement 
with the Maoists, the King will finally blink.  It remains to 
be seen whether this gamble will pay off. 
MORIARTY