US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4262

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004262 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT:  TAIWAN'S DECEMBER ELECTIONS:  COOPERATION AND 
COMPETITION WITHIN BLUE AND GREEN COALITIONS 
 
REF: TAIPEI 4158 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  With Taiwan's local elections six weeks 
away, both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green coalitions have been 
working to cooperate on candidates to eliminate 
intra-coalition competition.  After several months of 
off-again-on-again negotiations, the Pan-Green camp's 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Taiwan Solidarity 
Union (TSU) and the Pan-Blue camp's Kuomintang party (KMT) 
and People's First Party (PFP) have each achieved a mixed bag 
of cooperation and unresolved competition.  The two Green 
parties remain in direct competition in one race and the Blue 
parties in four races.  End Summary 
 
2.  (U) Originally, 77 candidates registered to run in the 5 
city mayor and 18 county magistrate races on December 3 -- 20 
DPP, 20 KMT, 4 PFP and 4 TSU, with the remaining 31 
candidates running on independent tickets.  Subsequently, one 
DPP candidate withdrew and one PFP candidate was 
disqualified, leaving 75 candidates in the race.  The Central 
Election Committee (CEC) is reviewing the candidates' 
qualifications and will announce a formal list of candidates 
on November 22. 
 
Pan-Blue Cooperates In All But Four Races 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) The KMT and PFP succeeded in reaching agreement on 
candidates in many districts, leaving Keelung and Taichung 
cities and Hualien and Miaoli counties with Pan-Blue 
candidates facing -- and undermining -- each other.  In 
Kinmen County, the KMT, PFP and pan-Blue New Party have 
agreed to jointly support incumbent New Party Magistrate Lee 
Chu-fen, while in Lienchiang County (Matsu), the KMT will 
support incumbent PFP Magistrate Chen Hsueh-sheng.  In 
return, PFP candidates in Ilan and Hsinchu counties have 
withdrawn and pledged to support the KMT candidates there. 
In Taipei County, generally viewed as the most important 
race, PFP member Wang An-pang pulled out in lieu of KMT 
candidate Chou Hsi-wei.  The two parties agreed to cooperate 
in Chiayi City in support of KMT legislator Huang Ming-hui 
for Mayor, and former PFP legislator Hsieh Chang-hsieh pulled 
out of the Changhua County race.  Chang Jung-kung, Director 
of the KMT Central Committee Mainland Affairs Department, 
told AIT that the PFP agreed to withdraw its candidates in 
Chiayi City and Changhua County thanks to mediation efforts 
by Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng and local 
politicians. 
 
4.  (SBU) In Keelung City, incumbent KMT Mayor Hsu Tsai-li 
and PFP legislator Liu Wen-hsiung are in a bruisingly close 
race with each other, while the joint Pan-Green candidate, 
TSU's Chen Chien-ming, is trailing ten points behind.  Liu 
 
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and Hsu have a history that makes it unlikely either will 
drop out.  In 1997, Hsu ran as an independent against Liu, 
then the KMT candidate, splitting the pan-Blue vote and 
allowing the DPP candidate to score an upset victory.  Now 
Hsu and Liu are once again locked in head-to-head 
competition.  In Taichung City, incumbent KMT Mayor Jason Hu 
has a considerable lead in the polls.  With a large 
percentage of undecided voters, it is possible but unlikely 
that his re-election could be affected by PFP legislator Shen 
Chih-hui's insistence on remaining in the race.  KMT official 
Chang Jung-kung told AIT that the PFP tried to make a deal 
with the KMT, proposing that its candidate drop out of the 
Taichung City race in return for the KMT candidate dropping 
out of the Keelung race.  The KMT did not agree because it 
believes Jason Hu will win in Taichung regardless of whether 
there is a PFP candidate, and the KMT sees no reason to give 
up the Keelung race, where its candidate is the incumbent 
mayor. 
 
5.  (SBU) Hualien County incumbent KMT Magistrate Hsieh 
Shen-shan is expected to win another term in spite of a 
challenge from PFP legislator Fu Kin-chi.  KMT Mainland 
Affairs Director Chang told AIT that while the PFP has little 
chance of winning in Hualien County, it has decided to keep 
its candidate in the race to put pressure on the KMT and 
maintain PFP influence.  While the largely Hakka Miaoli 
County is normally a safe Blue district, the surprise KMT 
choice of a non-Hakka candidate has made the race 
unexpectedly competitive.   Several Hakka candidates have 
joined the fray, Soochow University Professor Emile Sheng 
noted, and this may actually help the KMT candidate by 
splitting the Hakka vote.  More generally, Chang and Sheng 
both said that nonviable candidates sometimes enter races 
just in hopes of collecting payoffs or other benefits in 
return for dropping out or not campaigning hard.  According 
to Sheng, new KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has refused to engage 
in the traditional payoff practice. 
 
Pan-Green Cooperates In All But One Race 
---------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) On the Pan-Green side, integration negotiations 
were considerably smoother.  The DPP and TSU were able agree 
on joint candidates in all election districts except Tainan 
City, where DPP incumbent Mayor Hsu Tain-tsair and former TSU 
legislator Chien Lin Hui-chun will campaign against each 
other and against KMT candidate Chen Jung-sheng.  Mayor Hsu 
continues to lead in public opinion polls.  DPP Keelung City 
nominee Wang Tuo dropped out of the race at the last minute, 
throwing his support to the TSU's Chen Chien-ming, and the 
TSU returned the favor by dropping plans to run a candidate 
 
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in Chiayi City.  According to Emile Sheng, other potential 
DPP candidates in Keelung, who had been prevented from 
entering the race because of Wang Tuo's candidacy, were 
incensed when Wang dropped out in favor of a TSU candidate. 
TSU candidate Chen has picked up only a portion of Wang's 
 
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supporters, with other supporters backing the KMT candidate. 
Pan-Green parties did not bother to nominate any candidates 
in the Blue stronghold islands of Kinmen and Matsu 
(Lienchiang County). 
 
Campaign Oddities 
----------------- 
 
7.  (U) Although the Pan-Blue vs. Pan-Green match-up will be 
the main event in most cites and counties, there are a few 
unusual situations.  In Nantou County, two Pan-Blue 
candidates are running against two Pan-Green candidates.  DPP 
incumbent Nantou County Magistrate Lin Tsung-nan is running 
as an independent after an unexpected failure to win his 
party's renomination.  The DPP candidate is Tsai Huang-lang. 
KMT County Councilman Lin Ming-chen is also running as an 
independent after losing the KMT nomination to Lee 
Chao-ching. 
 
8.  (SBU) In Taitung County, none of the four parties 
nominated a candidate.  Rather, DPP and KMT candidates are 
running as independents in the footsteps of popular incumbent 
independent Magistrate Hsu Ching-yuan, who is not running for 
re-election.  Hsu supports his Deputy Magistrate, DPP member 
Liu Chao-hao.  The KMT refused to nominate Wu Chun-li because 
of his involvement in a corruption lawsuit, so Wu is running 
as an independent candidate.  According to Emile Sheng, the 
KMT is still supporting Wu despite the corruption lawsuit, 
and the DPP is providing support to Liu. 
 
Districts To Watch 
------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Taipei County is the defining contest for both 
Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps, according to AIT's contacts. 
KMT campaign strategy, Chang told AIT, is to characterize the 
December 3 race as the second and final battle between 
President Chen and Mayor Ma (the first being Ma's 1998 
victory over Chen for Taipei Mayor) and to portray the 
December 3 elections, particularly Taipei County, as a 
precursor to the 2008 presidential election.  By contrast, 
the DPP candidate in Taipei County, Luo Wen-jia, has been 
trying to distance himself from the beleaguered President 
Chen, whose ratings in public opinion polls have plummeted 
due to a series of scandals and government problems.  Luo's 
introduction of the "New DPP Movement" had been intended to 
do just that.  However, almost all polls and pundits agree it 
has hurt rather than helped him. 
10.  (SBU) In addition to Taipei County, the KMT is focusing 
its efforts on winning Ilan County and Chiayi City, both long 
under the rule of the DPP, which calls these two districts 
"the sacred lands of democracy."  Of the races where Pan-Blue 
parties could not settle on one candidate, Keelung City and 
Miaoli County are the most competitive districts where the 
KMT risks defeat. 
PAAL