US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4323

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004323 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: ALLAWI COALITION BUILDING EFFORTS NEARING 
COMPLETION 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 04270 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  Former PM Ayad Allawi is reportedly 
putting the final touches on a wide secular coalition 
for the December elections.  Iraqi Communist Party 
Secretary General Hamid Majid Mussa told us October 19 
 
SIPDIS 
that Allawi has completed his coalition negotiations 
and was completing negotiations on candidate lists 
(see paragraph 2), which include a wide range of key 
secular leaders who ran separately in the last 
election.  Other potential coalition members gave 
differing reports and said that coalition negotiations 
are still ongoing.  End Summary. 
 
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New Coalition Complete? 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Iraqi Communist Party Secretary General Hamid 
Majid Mussa told Poloff on October 19 that Allawi had 
completed his coalition negotiations and was putting 
the final touches on candidate lists.  Mussa, whose 
party ran on a separate slate in the January 
elections, will join forces with Allawi for the 
December vote in a group tentatively named the "The 
Patriotic Iraqi List."  Mussa said the Allawi 
coalition currently includes, among others, the 
following key political groups and leaders: 
 
-- Iraqi National Accord (Wifaq, Allawi's party) 
-- Adnan al-Pachachi 
-- Naseer Chaderchi 
-- Arab Socialist Movement 
-- Mufid al-Jaza'iri, former IIG minister 
-- Ayad Jamal al-Din, independent cleric 
-- Husayn al-Sadr, independent cleric 
-- Wijdan Mikhael Salim 
 
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But Others Report No Final Deals Yet 
------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) On October 19, Poloffs spoke with coalition 
supporters Wijdan Mikhael Salim (Chaldo-Assyrian TNA 
member) and Hussein Al-Adili (Islamic Democratic Trend 
Party), as well as conference participant Mohammed 
Ismael (assistant of Anadem Al-Jabiri, head of the 
Fadhila Party).  All expressed their hopes for a 
government that is more representative of all Iraqis 
and less sectarian. 
 
4.  (C) Adili said the main goal was to form a 
coalition that can rival the 169 List to balance the 
National Assembly.  Our sources, including Ghazi al- 
Yawr on October 19, said coalition negotiations are 
underway.  None would confirm the finalization of any 
deals.  Regarding the Sunnis at the conference, Al- 
Adili said there was no final agreement between the 
Iraqi Islamic Party and the Allawi team.  Saad Janabi, 
whose cross-sectarian Iraqi Republican Gathering 
attended the October 17 conference, told us October 18 
that the Islamic Party might put some candidates on 
Allawi's Patriotic List in selected governorates. 
The future of the Shia Islamist party Fadhila as an 
Allawi partner is also up in the air.  Fadhila leader 
Nadim al-Jabiri attended and spoke at the October 17 
conference.  However, Jabiri's aide Ismael said no 
coalition deals had been finalized.  He indicated that 
Fadhila also is negotiating with Sadr, SCIRI, and 
Dawa. 
 
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Other Views on Allawi Coalition Building Efforts 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (C) Vice President Ghazi al-Yawr told PolCouns on 
October 19 that he was snubbed at the conference, did 
not deliver his speech and left the conference early. 
He didn't blame Ayad Allawi but rather his conference 
planner Mehdi Hafez for the order in which politicians 
spoke at the event.  (Yawr was keen to point out that 
given his social level, vice presidency, and control 
of 5 TNA seats, he should have spoken after Ayad 
Allawi.  Instead Fadhila Party's Nadeem al-Jabiri, and 
ICP Hamid Mussa, spoke second and third respectively. 
Al-Yawar was scheduled to speak fourth but instead 
left the conference.)  However, Al-Yawar said he still 
leaves the door open for an Allawi alliance. 
 
6.  (C) Faisal Qaragholi, Member of the Constitutional 
Monarchy political party (but not invited to the 
conference) told PolOff on October 18 that Allawi is 
trying very hard to win National Assembly seats by 
having Kurds, Sunni and Shia on one coalition.  But 
the minds of most Shia will not be able to grasp 
voting for an Allawi list that has Sunni, Communists 
and Kurds.  Faisal labeled the conference a rainbow 
coalition that gave the limelight to a host of 
political speakers and did not result in any 
guarantees of signing on to Allawi's coalition. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) So far, we are aware of no other broad, cross- 
sectarian political alliance as the December 2005 
elections near.  Ayad Allawi seems to have built a 
coalition that includes a wide range of key secular 
leaders who ran separately in the last election. 
Whether Allawi will be able to broaden the coalition 
to larger Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish parties remains to 
be seen.  We are urging our contacts that favor 
liberal, centrist politics to think seriously of how 
to work as part of a larger electoral alliance like 
Allawi's. 
 
 
Satterfield