US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA854

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000854 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, KDEM, LO 
SUBJECT: HZDS: OLD DOG MECIAR CAN STILL LEARN NEW TRICKS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 
1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  During an October 19 lunch, HZDS 
leadership (minus Meciar, whom we did not invite) told 
Ambassador that the party cannot exist without Vladimir 
Meciar, that they are working "behind the scenes" to reach 
out to the current coalition, that Meciar (an "old dog who 
can still learn new tricks") has ruled out ever serving as 
Prime Minister again, and that the party will instead 
consider "success" in next year's elections the return of 
HZDS to a ruling coalition.  Despite the overtures they are 
making to the current coalition of SDKU, SMK, and KDH, the 
HZDS leadership told us that they cannot rule out any course 
of action.  Still, when asked to look into the crystal ball 
and predict what the government will look like in a year, 
almost all agreed that it will involve a partnership between 
HZDS and SDKU.  END SUMMARY. 
 
MECIAR'S EMISSARY: WE'RE REACHING OUT TO THE COALITION 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
2.  (C)  During an October 19 lunch with HZDS MPs Milan 
Urbani, Tibor Mikus, Katarina Tothova, and Diana Strofova, 
Urbani -- Meciar's designated "emissary" to the United States 
Embassy -- told us that HZDS is growing in popularity, 
particularly with the young and the "forty-something" crowd. 
The MPs speculated that this bump was due to Slovaks finally 
getting over the mistakes of the 1990's, when Tothova -- then 
Minister of Justice -- said disingenuously that HZDS was 
forced to make "bad concessions" to its then-coalition 
partners, particularly SNS.  (Comment:  Tothova was the most 
unreconstructed of the group.  End Comment).  Tothova said 
that she could see HZDS working together with Prime Minister 
Dzurinda's SDKU party, and Urbani, who had opened the 
luncheon by saying that all options were on the table for 
HZDS in the upcoming elections, tipped his hand and admitted 
that HZDS was reaching out to the current coalition.  Urbani 
was particularly interested in how the United States would 
react to a SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS coalition government; the 
Ambassador told Urbani that the USG is interested in having 
Slovaks choose their own leaders in an election that is free, 
fair, and transparent.  He also laid down a marker on 
Meciar's past transgressions and expressed our support for 
many of the policies Slovakia has followed since Meciar's 
fall. 
 
3.  (C)  While the MPs admitted that Meciar is an "old dog," 
they had faith in his ability to learn "new tricks" in the 
upcoming political campaign season.  While Strofova -- a 32 
year old new mother -- waxed sentimental about Meciar's role 
as the "father of our country," the other MPs seemed unmoved 
by her passionate display of loyalty.  Urbani admitted, 
however, that it is Meciar, and not HZDS, that does well at 
the polls; without Meciar, Urbani felt the party would suffer 
significantly.  Clearly, there is no HZDS without its 
unchallenged boss. 
 
MECIAR WANTS POWER, BUT NOT RESPONSIBILITY 
------------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C)  The MPs outlined their party as built upon three 
"pillars:" "We are a Christian party, a nationalist party, 
and a party that believes in social capitalism," Urbani said. 
 With an aggressive and well-defined outline of what reforms 
it feels should be continued, and what should be rolled back, 
the members clearly spoke from the perspective of their 
traditional voter base in rural and eastern Slovakia, where 
joblessness remains a problem and wages currently hover at 
around 40 percent of the EU-25 average.  When asked about 
what would constitute "success" for Meciar, the MPs said 
"power."  When asked to clarify, they admitted that Meciar 
wants HZDS to be in the ruling coalition again -- and is 
actively pursuing partnership with SDKU, SMK, and KDH to get 
there -- but that Meciar himself does not aspire to be Prime 
Minister (or any other Minister, for that matter) again. 
Urbani told the Ambassador that Meciar has on no fewer than 
three occasions assured him that he does not want to be in 
power again.  Urbani smiled coyly when we asked if Meciar was 
angling to be Chairman of the Parliament. 
 
THE BIG QUESTION: WHEN CAN MECIAR MEET THE AMBASSADOR? 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
5.  (C)  Following the lunch, Urbani pulled the Ambassador 
aside to ask "when (Urbani) might be able to tell the 
Chairman he can meet (the Ambassador)."  The Ambassador told 
him the time wasn't right. 
VALLEE 
 
 
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