US embassy cable - 05MANILA4962

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004962 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B 
NSC FOR H. MORROW 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PINS, RP 
SUBJECT: DIVISIONS IN PRESIDENT ARROYO'S COALITION IN HOUSE 
POTENTIALLY THREATEN LEGISLATIVE AGENDA 
 
REF: A. MANILA 4740 
 
     B. MANILA 4662 
     C. MANILA 4140 
     D. MANILA 3391 
     E. 04 MANILA 3998 
 
Classified By: Acting Pol/C Joseph L. Novak for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Tensions have spiked between Lakas, the 
major party in President Arroyo's coalition in the House, and 
KAMPI, a group of strong Arroyo loyalists.  The flashpoint 
for the friction has been how many KAMPI members will serve 
on a key committee.  A major source of continuing tension, 
however, is Constitutional change, which KAMPI is leery of, 
especially if proposed changes would curb Arroyo's term or 
powers.  The latest bickering comes after several months of 
Lakas/KAMPI cooperation as they worked to defeat the 
Opposition's anti-Arroyo impeachment effort.  The divisions 
in Arroyo's House coalition add to her problems with a 
recalcitrant Senate and potentially threaten her legislative 
agenda.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Lakas/KAMPI Ties take a Dive 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Tensions have spiked between Lakas-CMD, the major 
party in President Arroyo's coalition in the House of 
Representatives, and KAMPI (Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino or 
"Ally of the Filipino Citizen"), a grouping of strong Arroyo 
loyalists.  (Note:  Lakas controls about 75 seats in the 
House.  KAMPI has about 35.  Arroyo's coalition, which 
includes several other parties in addition to Lakas and 
KAMPI, has majority control of the 236-member House.  End 
Note.)  The immediate flashpoint for the tension is how many 
representatives on the powerful Committee on Appointments 
should be reserved for members of the KAMPI grouping.  (Note: 
 The Commission on Appointments is a bicameral House/Senate 
body, chaired by House Speaker Jose De Venecia, that confirms 
cabinet secretaries, ambassadors, and high-level military and 
police appointments.  End Note.)  KAMPI leaders are demanding 
at least two seats on the 24-seat body.  De Venecia, the head 
of the Lakas party, has offered them only one. 
 
3. (SBU) A major source of continuing tension, however, is 
Constitutional change.  No doubt at the explicit instructions 
of President Arroyo and her advisers, KAMPI is extremely 
leery of Constitutional change proposals to create a 
unicameral parliamentary form of government, especially if 
the proposed changes would curb Arroyo's term (which ends in 
2010) or her powers.  KAMPI is so upset over the matter that 
it has withdrawn its support for De Venecia's Constitutional 
change proposal until the Commission on Charter Change 
(appointed by President Arroyo) submits its recommendations 
to the House in December (see Ref B). 
 
4.  (C) Growing dissatisfaction by KAMPI with Lakas has led 
some observers to speculate that there might be a KAMPI-led 
leadership challenge to De Venecia.  Contacts have related to 
us that KAMPI members Congressman Luis Villafuerte or Ronaldo 
"Ronnie" Puno may at some point take a run at De Venecia's 
position as House Speaker.  There are also reports that 
Congressman Prospero "Butch" Pichay, a Lakas member, may 
challenge De Venecia with KAMPI support.  If any of these 
figures were to run against De Venecia, it would almost 
certainly be with Malacanang's backing and be very divisive. 
However, at this point, there is no confirmation that KAMPI 
is planning to make any such move in the immediate future, 
though a possible timeframe for a challenge would be when the 
House ends its current recess and re-convenes on November 7. 
 
----------------------------- 
Relations Had Been On Upswing 
----------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The latest friction in the Lakas/KAMPI relationship 
comes after several months of cooperative links between the 
two sides as they worked together to defeat the Opposition's 
impeachment complaint (Ref C).  When Opposition lawmakers 
filed impeachment charges against President Arroyo in July, 
Lakas and KAMPI members stood firmly by the President.  Lakas 
members -- whose backing for the President is sometimes more 
nominal than actual -- refused to endorse the impeachment 
complaint, helping block its automatic transmittal to the 
Senate.  This cooperation was a notable change from the 
partisan competition that had been the norm in relations 
between the two groups since 2004.  (Note:  Then-senator 
Arroyo formed KAMPI in 1997 during the run-up to her bid for 
the vice presidency.  The group fell into relative obscurity 
until mid-2004 when Arroyo, fresh off her presidential 
victory, reinvigorated KAMPI in order to counter the growing 
influence of Lakas -- see Ref E.) 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) The divisions in Arroyo's coalition in the House add 
to her pre-existing problems with a recalcitrant Senate and 
potentially threaten her legislative agenda.  The next 
several months of business in the two bodies will be busy 
ones as the House prepares the budget for 2006, reviews 
Constitutional change proposals, and discusses comprehensive 
anti-terrorism legislation.  Arroyo has already basically 
lost control of the Senate due to defections from her camp 
over the summer (Ref A), but her control of the House has 
seemed steady, especially after her coalition held together 
and defeated the impeachment drive in September.  At this 
point, unless a truce in the partisanship emerges, Lakas's 
and KAMPI's problematic ties could potentially delay and 
complicate the path of key legislative items. 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
JONES