US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD15731

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 015731 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015 
TAGS: PK, PREL, PGOV, IN, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: AN OPEN DOOR TO KASHMIR? 
 
 
Classified By: Derived from DSCG 05-01, B 
 
 
 1. (C) Summary:  During an October 18 press conference, 
President Musharraf sent out a trial balloon on Kashmir, 
announcing that Pakistan would allow Kashmiri 
civilians--including Kashmiri politicians--from across the 
LOC to come to Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) to meet relatives 
and assist in reconstruction work. Musharraf also proposed 
opening mobile and landline communication links between 
Kashmiris on either side of the border, a move that was 
matched by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh a few hours 
later. Musharraf's announcement supporting the free movement 
of Kashmiris across the border apparently had not been 
coordinated with the GOP Ministry of Foreign Affairs or 
Indian counterparts. Musharraf told the press that the idea 
was a "suggestion" from Pakistan, and that the modalities 
would have to be worked out. Reaction on both sides of the 
border appeared positive, leaving open now only the question 
of when and how. End Summary. 
 
A NEW MUSHARRAF PROPOSAL ON KASHMIR 
----------------------------------- 
2. (U) During a press conference in Muzaffarabad, President 
Musharraf unveiled a new plan to allow Kashmiris from across 
the Indian side of the Line of Control (LOC) to enter AJK to 
"help their brothers in reconstruction work on this side." 
While categorical that the proposal was only for civilians, 
Musharraf said he was open to the idea of allowing political 
leaders from the two sides to meet and interact on 
reconstruction issues. He also suggested the opening of 
landline and mobile phone links between Kashmiris on either 
side of the border, something which has been unavailable for 
several years. 
 
3. (C) Musharraf described his announcement as a "suggestion" 
and said that the modalities would have to be worked out 
formally by both sides. A call to Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
(MFA) Director for Kashmir Affairs Miriam Aftab today 
confirmed that it was an idea developed by Musharraf (or his 
close aides) and not by the MFA. (Comment:  If left to the 
MFA, there would be no creative thinking on this or any other 
aspect of the Kashmir issue.  End note.)  Aftab candidly 
admitted that she had been cut out of the loop and was unable 
to answer questions on how or when Musharraf's proposals 
would be implemented, whether dialogue with the Indian side 
had begun, or who the key players in the process were. 
 
PAKISTANI AND INDIAN REACTION 
----------------------------- 
4. (C) Musharraf's announcement received front-page coverage 
in this morning's Urdu and English language dailies, which 
continue to be otherwise consumed by earthquake-related news. 
Newspaper articles covering Musharraf's proposal were upbeat 
and positive in most Pakistani newspapers; editorial comment 
will take another day to emerge. Thus far, opposition 
parties--including the MMA--have remained quiet on the 
proposal. Militant groups, including the Islamabad-based 
United Jihad Council, welcomed the move, saying it would 
strengthen the cause of Kashmiris. 
 
5. (C) Press reports indicate that the Indian Government 
reacted warmly to Musharraf's proposals, portraying them as 
well in line with what India has long advocated--greater 
movement across the LOC. India's External Ministry Spokesman 
Natvej Sarna and former Indian Ambassador to Islamabad G. 
Parthasarthy were quoted in the Indian Express and Reuters 
saying that India welcomed the remarks, and that they 
"vindicated India's advocacy of the need for a soft border." 
Sarna said he is waiting for word from Pakistan to work out 
the "practical details" of implementing Musharraf's proposal. 
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh immediately acted on 
Musharraf's call for better communication links, ordering the 
Department of telecommunications to set up four Telecom 
Facilitation Centers (one each in Srinagar, Jamu, Uri, and 
Tangdhar). The Indian telecommunications centers are supposed 
to be operational for two weeks, starting today. Kashmiri 
groups--including the main separatist alliance in Indian 
Kashmir--the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) said they 
welcomed the offer. 
COMMENT 
------- 
6. (C) Musharraf's proposal is a well-timed attempt to turn 
public opinion in Kashmir to his side. Given the beating the 
GOP has taken for reacting too slowly to the crisis and 
several media accounts of militant groups being first on the 
ground, Musharraf's suggestion to reunite divided families 
and allow freer movement of relief personnel across the LOC 
is a welcome step. Consistent with Musharraf's usual style, 
he announced first and has left it to the bureaucrats to work 
out later. What happens to the proposal sticks remains to be 
seen; the Pakistani bureaucracy will only move on the 
proposal if consistent pressure is applied from the top. 
CROCKER