US embassy cable - 05SANJOSE2436

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002436 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CEN 
EB FOR WCRAFT, BLAMPRON 
E FOR DEDWARDS 
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER 
STATE PASS TO USTR FOR RVARGO, NMOORJANI, AMALITO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, ECPS, ECON, PREL, PGOV, SOCI, CS 
SUBJECT: CID/GALLUP POLL SHOWS GROWING SUPPORT FOR CAFTA-DR 
IN COSTA RICA 
 
REF: SAN JOSE 01875 
 
1.  Summary.  An October 2005 CID/GALLUP poll revealed 
increases in the knowledge of and support for the United 
States-Central American-Dominican Republic Free Trade 
Agreement (CAFTA-DR) among Costa Ricans.  The poll also 
shows that the percentage of respondents who believe CAFTA- 
DR will bring benefits to Costa Rica has increased and is a 
strong majority.  Likewise, the percentage of respondents 
who believe that CAFTA-DR will bring little or no benefits 
has decreased.  End Summary. 
 
2.  CID/Gallup conducted a poll by telephone and personal 
interviews of 1,221 adults (over 18) from all areas of 
Costa Rica between October 7 and 13, 2005.  The margin of 
error is stated to be plus or minus 2.8 percent with a 95 
percent confidence level.  The poll revealed that 79 
percent of those polled had heard or read at least "a 
little" about CAFTA-DR, an increase from 67 percent in 
July, 54 percent in May, and 44 percent in February.  The 
knowledge level of CAFTA-DR was proportional to the 
education level achieved by the respondent; 96 percent of 
those having at least one year of University-level 
education had some knowledge of the agreement, 82 percent 
of those completing their high school studies, and 71 
percent of those completing primary education. 
 
3.  As compared to a similar CID/Gallup poll conducted in 
July 2005 (Reftel), the most recent poll results showed 
that those who responded that they were "somewhat" or "very 
much" in favor of CAFTA-DR increased from 56 percent to 64 
percent.  Those who responded that they were "somewhat" or 
"very much" opposed to the agreement fell from 30 percent 
to 26 percent.  Since the U.S. approved CAFTA-DR in late 
July 2005, this issue has been discussed almost daily in 
the local media.  Nicaragua's recent ratification of CAFTA- 
DR on October 10, 2005 renewed the focus on the CAFTA-DR 
issue in Costa Rica.  Looking closer into the breakdown of 
the responses to this question, 28 percent of respondents 
said they were very much in favor of CAFTA-DR (21, 21, and 
23 in July, May, and February respectively), 36 percent 
somewhat in favor (35, 40, and 33), 13 percent somewhat 
opposed (13, 17, and 14), and 13 percent very much opposed 
(17, 15, and 16). 
 
4.  The poll also asked the following question to those who 
said they knew at least "a little" of the agreement: 
"Taking everything into account, how much do you think 
Costa Rica will benefit from CAFTA-DR?"  Responses revealed 
that 61 percent think that Costa Rica will benefit "a lot" 
or "some," compared to 54 percent in July and 53 percent in 
May 2005.  Those who think the country would benefit 
"little" or "not at all" constituted 25 percent of the 
responses, down from 33 percent in July and 39 percent in 
May.  Those having no response or opinion were 14 percent 
of the respondents, up from 12 in July and 9 percent in 
May. 
 
5. Comment: The most recent CID/Gallup results show that 
support for CAFTA-DR is expressed by a strong majority of 
Costa Ricans and is growing.  The opposite is true of those 
expressing opposition to CAFTA-DR in Costa Rica.  These 
results are consistent with other recently conducted polls. 
The most significant changes over the year have been the 
percentage of respondents who said they knew of CAFTA-DR 
and believe the agreement will bring at least some benefits 
to the country. 
FRISBIE