US embassy cable - 05CALCUTTA373

UNCLAS CALCUTTA 000373 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, CASC, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: BIHAR'S FIRST DAY OF VOTING OFFERS NO CLEAR WINNER AND NO 
SERIOUS VIOLENCE 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  On October 18, Bihar completed a relatively 
peaceful first day of voting in its State elections.  Voting 
took place in 57 of Bihar's 243 constituencies.    Television 
and newspaper exit polls were contradictory, making predictions 
difficult.  Zee News television predicted an indecisive result 
for the main contenders  (the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 
and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)).  However, Star News 
television predicted a strong NDA win, lead by the exceptional 
performance of the Janata Dal (United) JDU.  On October 21, 
Phase one of the voting will be completed in four 
Maoist-affected areas.  Phase II will begin on October 26.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (U) The first day of voting in 57 constituencies was 
unusually peaceful for Bihar, with only one report of police 
firing on an unruly crowd in Aurangabad district, killing one 
person.   During the February state elections, 24 deaths were 
reported.  Voting irregularities were also limited.  Ninety-six 
people were arrested, including four candidates - three from the 
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), for election violations.  One 
candidate was accused of smashing an electronic voting machine 
and another candidate's bodyguard fired on a crowd of opposing 
voters causing no injuries. 
 
3.  (U) News reports of exit polling varied widely.  Star News 
television predicted a huge lead for the NDA's JD(U), with 30 
seats, with  the UPA's RJD receiving only 19.   Zee News 
television predicted 28 seats for the RJD and 22 for the JD(U). 
 Newspapers were equally split.  "The Times of India" wrote of a 
"hung" assembly but "The Asian Age" wrote, "Lalu (RJD leader 
Lalu Prasad Yadav) in trouble."  All observes agreed that the 
Lok Janata Party (LJP) was doing worse than last February.  LJP 
Leader Ram Vilas Paswan had hoped to create a viable alternative 
to the UPA and NDA, but appears to have instead lost much of his 
political base, primarily to the NDA.  Twenty of his party's 
Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs), elected in the 
February election, are now running as NDA candidates.  The 
conflicting polling numbers make the election difficult to call 
until the final results from all four election phases are 
released on November 22. 
 
4. (U) On October 21, voting will resume in four Maoist-affected 
constituencies.  The Election Commission (EC) wanted to delay 
polling in these districts to ensure the presence of sufficient 
law enforcement and security forces to protect the polling 
stations from Maoist insurgents, who have demanded a boycott of 
the election and threatened to attack voters and voting 
officials.  Phase II will begin on October 26 in 69 
constituencies. 
 
5.  (U) Comment.  Although, exit polls vary widely, there are a 
few persistent themes in all the reports.  The LJP is now very 
weak and Union Minister for Steel, Chemicals and Fertilizers Ram 
Vilas Paswan's future as a member of the UPA cabinet is bleak. 
In addition, while it is still possible the JD(U) could make 
major gains in this election from last February's results, no 
poll's predict the same for the RJD.  The RJD's prospects appear 
to range from very bad to not very good.  The most the party can 
hope for is to retain a very slim majority, and this may not be 
enough to allow it to form the government unless its allies do 
well. 
 
JARDINE