US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD15728

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 015728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
KABUL PLEASE PASS CFC-A 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015 
TAGS: EAID, PK, PREL, SENV, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE:  NEXT STEPS 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER.  REASONS: 1.4(B)(D). 
 
 1.  (C) Eleven days into Pakistan's earthquake disaster, 
substantial U.S. assistance continue to encourage the 
Pakistani public and give confidence to the government that 
it has strong international backing as it confronts the worst 
catastrophe in its history.  Over the next several days, a 
U.S. military engineering company and field hospital will 
deploy into the affected area, strengthening the sense of an 
ongoing, reliable relief effort.  The Pakistani government, 
led by the military, has responded well to this crisis, 
demonstrating an impressive organizational ability, both in 
Islamabad and in the quake area. 
 
2.  (C) That is the good news.  The reality is that the 
magnitude of the damage and the inhospitable terrain in which 
the quake occurred will mean that Pakistan and the 
international community must stay focused on the relief 
effort for the weeks and even months ahead.  The human losses 
are almost unbelievable with the government now estimating 
more than 60,000 dead and many more than that injured.  The 
remote, isolated locations of many of the villages compound 
the difficulty of delivering effective relief, and we are 
only a few weeks away from the onset of winter in a 
mountainous area where several hundred thousand are without 
shelter.  Some in the international community--and in 
Pakistan--are already talking about a shift from relief to 
reconstruction.  If we start backing away from relief 
operations, a lot more people are going to die. 
 
3.  (C) As I judge it from here, the overall international 
response has been less than impressive.  The United Nations 
was slow to engage on this crisis, and its response remains 
lackluster.  As of today, for example, only four U.N. 
helicopters are operating in country.  The UNSYG is basically 
missing in action.  He has not visited Pakistan, nor has he 
done much to signal that earthquake relief is a top U.N. 
priority.  From our contacts here, I sense that other donors 
are looking at what the U.N. is doing and deciding on that 
basis that there is no need to be overly generous. 
 
4.  (C) Against this backdrop, I am concerned that the Geneva 
Donors Conference on October 26 will not be a success.  The 
Europeans in particular are lagging, and the press here is 
speculating that grants from the European Union collectively 
or its members bilaterally may reflect simply a reprogramming 
of existing aid commitments. 
 
5.  (C) To sustain the momentum that we and the Pakistani 
government are developing, and to prevent this devastated 
region from sliding into a fresh disaster, I recommend three 
steps: 
 
-- a call to Kofi Annan to spark a more energetic U.N. 
effort.  In particular, Annan should visit Pakistan 
immediately and/or personally chair the Geneva Conference. 
 
-- a call to Jack Straw, both as our leading European ally 
and because of the UK's EU presidency to assess the extent of 
European commitments and to urge more robust pledges. 
 
-- a decision now by Washington to commit $150 million in new 
funds to the relief and reconstruction effort. 
 
6.  (C) It is hard to overstate the magnitude of this 
disaster and its potential impact.  We have gotten off to a 
very good start, but it is only a start.  What we do and what 
we are able to get others to do in the coming days will be 
critical to determining what happens to hundreds of thousands 
of people, the way in which the government of Pakistan and 
its supporters are perceived by the people of this country 
and for the image of the U.S. and the West in the Muslim 
world. 
CROCKER