US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8120

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, EAID, ECPS, PBTS, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK "DISASTER DIPLOMACY" SOFTENING BORDERS 
(BUT NOT POLITICS) 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 8073 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 7990 
 
Classified By: Charge Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Terrorism aside (Ref A), the diplomatic 
vibes of disaster diplomacy are resonating well in India. 
The GOI warmly welcomed Musharraf's October 18 decision to 
permit "any amount" of Kashmiris from J&K to cross the LoC 
into Pakistani Kashmir to assist with earthquake 
reconstruction and meet their relatives.  Some Indian 
Kashmiris are now preparing to cross over to join relief 
workers, while others have already begun crossing the Neelam 
River on quake-created bridges.  New phone services linking 
Kashmiris are also widely hailed for further expanding 
people-to-people interaction.  As much as diplomacy is 
boosted, however, the GOI continues to investigate the 
October 18 terrorist attack on a secure VIP residential 
enclosure, and domestic partisan maneuvering continues 
unabated -- although Kashmiris insist that relief should come 
first, and political jockeying should wait.  Amid the 
destruction, the PM is using the quake to advance his vision 
of a "soft" LoC, which Kashmiris are also embracing, and 
which promises a chance for more normalized relations down 
the road.  End Summary. 
 
Freer Movement Across the LoC 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The GOI was upbeat over Musharraf's announcement of 
softening the LoC to allow freer travel by Indian Kashmiris 
into Pakistani Kashmir, including opening more cross-LoC 
transportation routes.  MEA Spokesman Navtej Sarna, in the 
GOI's quick and positive reply to the initial news of the 
announcement, noted that the move built upon PM Singh's 
"advocacy of greater movement across the LoC," although he 
admitted that "practical details" remain to be solved.  He 
also reminded journalists of the GOI's offer earlier this 
year to create with the GOP special zones along the LoC for 
divided families to meet.  PDP President Mehbooba Mufti said 
separately that her party is "ready to move fast on 
cross-border assistance" and Editor of the Urdu-language 
weekly "Chattan" Tahir Mohiuddin told us that Musharraf's 
declaration was "welcomed by all." 
 
Creative Kashmiris Already Voting with Their Feet 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (C) According to Mehbooba, damage along the Neelam River 
is facilitating cross-LoC travel.  The earthquake dislodged 
boulders that fell into the river, and are now being used by 
villagers -- apparently unopposed by security forces on 
either side -- as a literal bridge across the LoC. 
 
Can You Hear Me Now? 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In response to moderate separatist leader Mirwaiz 
Umar Farooq's call for telephone connectivity across the LoC 
(which had been "switched off" since 1991), PM Singh on 
October 18 directed the Department of Telecommunications to 
set up four Telecom Facilitation Centers in Srinagar, Jammu, 
Uri, and Tangdhar, to allow Indian Kashmiris to contact their 
relatives in Pakistani Kashmir starting from October 19.  For 
the first two weeks, the phone calls will be free of charge. 
All four centers are located in or near police facilities, 
apparently to better protect them against possible terrorist 
attacks.  A top GOI contact told us this was a personal 
decision of the PM.  The several Hurriyat members who talked 
to us after these centers became operational hailed them. 
Our contacts in Srinagar report that, for now, the centers 
only offer trunk calls that need to be booked in advance. 
 
5.  (C) Musharraf's statement that mobile phone service will 
be allowed in and out of Pakistani Kashmir will also improve 
the diplomatic vibes.  Many Indians already rely on mobile 
phones, and the damage to telephone cables in Kashmir will 
make mobile phone service a more immediate link than awaiting 
restoration of landline service. 
 
Home Secretary Reviewing Security 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Home Secretary VK Duggal is in J&K October 19, 
reviewing security in the wake of the October 18 terrorist 
attack on a secure VIP residential compound.  Before his 
departure, Duggal told reporters that J&K police and Indian 
intelligence services continue their investigations and would 
examine al-Mansoorian's claim of responsibility. 
 
Domestic Politics Remains Virtually Unchanged 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Press speculation continues unabated on whether the 
earthquake and its aftermath would allow PDP Chief Minister 
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed to stay in place, or if he will vacate 
his position in November as planned under the PDP-Congress 
election pact.  However, Gandhi family confidante Wajahat 
Habibullah (strictly protect) on October 19 told us that 
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi responded curtly when he briefed 
her on J&K Finance Minister Muzzafar Beg's lobbying on 
Mufti's behalf: "What has Mufti done for the nation, or the 
Congress Party" was her response.  Habibullah explained that 
Mrs. Gandhi continued to hold a grudge against Mufti for his 
decision to abandon Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 and support the VP 
Singh government (1989-1990).  "She is very Italian," 
Habibullah commented, noting the long memory Mrs. Gandhi has 
for those who cross her family.  In the meantime, the 
uncertainty over the transfer of power in Srinagar keeps the 
rumor mill producing at full steam. 
 
8.  (C) On a positive note, National Conference leader Farooq 
Abdullah told us that most Kashmiris have put politics aside 
to help with relief work.  Abdullah and Mehbooba each thanked 
us for USG aid that is arriving through NGOs, although 
Abdullah also denounced the GOI policy of refusing direct 
bilateral assistance as "stupid." 
 
Observations of Quake's Long-Term Impact 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Habibullah also shared with us his judgment that the 
earthquake will cause more political and social change on the 
Pakistani side of Kashmir than on the Indian side.  He noted 
that the Indian sectors hardest hit, Uri and Tangdghar, were 
already predominately Indian Army-run areas where civil 
authority was largely inactive and ineffective and the state 
government maintained a minimal presence (which is why the 
Army has the lead on relief and reconstruction).  Habibullah 
predicted that the quake would have a more dramatic long-term 
impact on Pakistani Kashmir. 
 
Comment: Plus Ca Change ... 
--------------------------- 
10.  (C) It is perhaps axiomatic in Indian (and broader South 
Asian) politics that disaster brings together those most 
closely affected, while those who are able to view the damage 
from the distance of Delhi remain focused on their own 
political calculations.  We would not be surprised to see a 
rush of Kashmiri politicians cross the border to offer 
assistance, following the trail blazed by Kashmiri separatist 
leader Yasin Malik (Ref B).  They do so out of a genuine 
desire to help, but also with their telegenic side to the 
camera, because peace is also still good for votes.  Although 
it is early to predict how this will play out, there is a 
widespread sense here in Delhi that aside from its geologic 
impact, the earthquake is shifting the political ground 
underneath the Kashmir issue.  The PM is using the earthquake 
to advance his vision of an increasingly permeable LoC that 
ceases to be the central issue of the dispute.  Kashmiris 
themselves have enthusiastically embraced this vision, 
providing a window of opportunity for future progress toward 
normalization of life across the erstwhile state of J&K. 
BLAKE