US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4251

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004251 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW, CH 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION TO POSTPONE CONTROVERSIAL CROSS-STRAIT 
PEACE PROMOTION BILL IN RESPONSE TO RULING PARTY ATTACKS 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  President Chen, under pressure over charges 
of corruption and cronyism, has shifted to full campaign 
mode, accusing the opposition of being co-opted by Beijing. 
During a television interview on October 17, Chen termed the 
People First Party (PFP) "Cross-Strait Peace Promotion Bill" 
the Taiwan edition of Beijing's "Anti-Secession Law" and 
called for the bill to be blocked by violent means if 
necessary.  The controversial PFP bill specifically 
acknowledges the "1992 consensus" (referring in explanatory 
notes to differing interpretations of one China), which the 
ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long rejected, 
and establishes a new opposition-controlled legislative 
committee to manage cross-strait policy.  In addition, Chen 
again accused PFP Chairman James Soong of meeting covertly in 
the U.S. early this year with Chen Yunlin, Director of the 
PRC Taiwan Affairs Office, a charge Soong vehemently denies. 
The PFP will likely postpone legislative action on the "Peace 
Promotion Bill" in hopes of preventing Chen from using it as 
a campaign issue.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) In the past few days, DPP leaders have weighed in 
strongly against the "Cross-Strait Peace Promotion Bill," 
which specifically acknowledges the "1992 consensus" 
(referring in the draft law's explanatory notes to differing 
interpretations of one China), a key PRC demand that the DPP 
rejects.  The bill would also place control of cross-Strait 
relations in the hands of a new Legislative Yuan (LY) 
committee to be selected by political parties according to 
their representation in the LY.  If implemented, control of 
cross-Strait policy would be moved into the hands of the 
opposition Pan-Blue parties (Kuomintang (KMT) and PFP), which 
have the majority of seats in the LY.  During a television 
interview on October 17, Chen said the bill, which he called 
the Taiwan edition of Beijing's Anti-Secession Law, must be 
blocked from passage at all costs, even if it takes a bloody 
battle in the LY.  A day earlier Chen had charged: "It's a 
peace promotion law on the surface, but a surrender law in 
reality.... If it is passed, I'm afraid... two million 
Taiwanese would take to the streets to oppose it."  DPP 
Chairman Su Tseng-chang charged that the "surrender law" 
would complete the PRC's three-step strategy to swallow 
Taiwan, the first two steps being the PRC's anti-secession 
law and the PRC's invitations to then Kuomintang (KMT) 
Chairman Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James Soong to visit.  In 
addition to attacking the PFP bill, Chen Shui-bian has also 
attacked PFP Chairman James Soong for allegedly meeting 
covertly in the U.S. early this year with Chen Yunlin, 
Director of the PRC Taiwan Affairs Office, a charge Soong 
vehemently denies. 
 
3.  (C) Late on October 17, PFP Policy Director Vincent Chang 
(Hsien-yao) told the press that the PFP has decided to 
postpone LY action on its controversial "Cross-Strait Peace 
Promotion Bill" until late December to prevent Chen Shui-bian 
from using the bill as a campaign issue in the December 3 
local elections.  Earlier the same day, Soochow University 
Professor Emile Sheng had told AIT that he did not expect the 
KMT or PFP to push the controversial bill forward because it 
would provide the DPP an opportunity to shift the focus of 
media and public attention away from DPP corruption to the 
controversial issue of cross-Strait policy.  That would 
enable Chen and the DPP to seize the moral high ground and 
win votes from the opposition by focusing on the "China 
threat" and their efforts to protect Taiwan's interests. 
Prominent DPP legislator Lin Cho-shui recently suggested to 
AIT that it is uncertain if the cross-Strait bill will 
actually pass because some KMT members might defect on a 
vote.  Even if passed, Lin added, he was confident that the 
court would reject the bill as unconstitutional.  Bearing out 
Lin's doubts, KMT legislator Su Chi told AIT last week that 
he and many other KMT legislators "do not support" the PFP 
cross-Strait bill and would be quite happy to see it 
scuttled. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4.  (C) Taiwan has entered a no-holds barred campaign season, 
and Chen Shui-bian is trying, as he has in past elections, to 
seize the initiative from the opposition by shifting media 
and public attention from DPP troubles by tarring the 
opposition as Beijing fellow travelers.  By postponing the 
Cross-Strait Peace Promotion Bill, the opposition parties 
hope to keep the focus on DPP scandals, corruption and 
cronyism, issues which have dominated the media in recent 
weeks and which threaten to cost the DPP dearly in the 
December 3 polls. 
 
PAAL