US embassy cable - 90MOGADISHU10701

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOGADISHU 10701 
 
 
ALSO FOR INR/B AND INR/DB 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR 
TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, SO 
SUBJ:  DISCUSSION WITH GENERAL MOHAMED ALI SAMANTAR 
 
1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2. SETTING:  ALTHOUGH GENERAL SAMANTAR CURRENTLY HOLDS 
NO OFFICIAL POSITION, HE REMAINS ONE OF SOMALIA'S 
PRINCIPAL POLITICAL FIGURES.  ACCORDINGLY, I CALLED ON 
HIM AT HIS QUARTERS DECEMBER 4.  I FOUND HIM LIVING 
IN A VERY LARGE AND ELABORATELY FURNISHED HOME WITHIN 
THE PERIMETER OF THE MOGADISHU OFFICERS' CLUB.  HE WAS 
IN APPARENT GOOD HEALTH AND SPIRITS, ALTHOUGH JUDGING 
BY THE CONDITION OF HIS FINGERS HE BITES HIS NAILS 
A LOT. 
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3.  DOMESTIC POLITICS:  THE FORMER VICE PRESIDENT, 
PRIME MINISTER, DEFENSE MINISTER, ARMY COMMANDER, ETC. 
PUT NO DISTANCE BETWEEN HIMSELF AND THE REGIME.  HE WAS 
CRITICAL OF THE OPPOSITION FOR ITS ALLEGED COMPLICITY 
IN THE VIOLENCE WHICH HAS PLAGUED MOGADISHU FOR 
MONTHS.  (HE ADMITTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE HEAVY FIGHTING 
OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WAS TRIBAL IN ORIGIN.)  AFTER 
BLAMING  THE OPPOSITION FOR MUCH OF THE OTHER VIOLENCE, 
HE ASKED RHETORICALLY HOW ITS LEADERS COULD EXPECT THE 
NEW CONSTITUTION TO FUNCTION IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. 
HE DID NOT ADVOCATE ABANDONMENT OF THE POLITICAL REFORM 
PROCESS, BUT HE ALSO HAD THE FRANKNESS TO MAKE IT CLEAR 
HE IS NOT ITS ARDENT SUPPORTER.  WHEN THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE 
WAS RAISED, HIS OBJECTIVE FOR THE MEETING SEEMED LIMITED 
TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A CEASE-FIRE. 
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4. ISLAMIC FERMENT:  THE GENERAL SPOKE MOST INTERESTINGLY 
ON THE SUBJECT OF TURBULENCE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAMIC 
COMMUNITY.  WITH OBVIOUS REGRET, HE SAID FOREIGN 
INFLUENCES ARE DISTURBING A COMMUNITY WHICH HAD BEEN 
NOTED FOR ITS TOLERANCE AND PEACEFULNESS.  THE VILLIANS 
HE IDENTIFIED INCLUDED MILITANTS FOR THE SEVERAL SUFI 
ORDERS WHICH HAVE LONG EXISTED IN SOMALIA, AS WELL AS 
MORE RECENTLY ARRIVED SECTS, E.G. THE WAHHABI OF 
SAUDI ARABIA.  ALTHOUGH HARDLY A RELIGIOUS MOVEMENT, 
SAMANTAR MENTIONED THAT SOME OF THE YOUNG SOMALIS WHO 
GO TO IRAQ TO STUDY ON IRAQI SCHOLARSHIPS RETURN AS 
BAATHISTS.  FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, HE CONSIDERED THIS 
ELEMENT AMONG THE MOST POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE, ALTHOUGH 
QUITE LIMITED IN INFLUENCE AT THE MOMENT.  THE WHOLE 
PHENOMENON OF RELIGIOUS FERMENT HE CONSIDERED MORE 
SIGNIFICANT FOR SOMALIA'S FUTURE THAN IT IS AT 
PRESENT, WHERE HE SAW ITS IMPACT AS MARGINAL. 
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5.  THE GULF:  NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE COMBAT VETERAN 
RAISED THE PROSPECTS OF WAR IN THE GULF.  HE DESCRIBED 
SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHOM HE MET WHILE THEY WERE VICE 
PRESIDENTS OF THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES, AS A PARTICULARLY 
AGGRESSIVE AND AMBITIOUS MAN.  HE PROFESSED DOUBT THAT 
MANY SOMALIS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE REGIME'S SUPPORT 
FOR THE COALITION BUT SUBSEQUENTLY CONCEDED THAT MANY 
UNEDUCATED SOMALIS ADMIRE THE IRAQI LEADER FOR 
DEFYING THE INFIDELS. 
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6.  PERSONAL ROLE:  WITHOUT SAYING ANYTHING TO INDICATE 
RESENTMENT, SAMANTAR MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE CONSIDERED 
HIS CURRENT ABSENCE FROM OFFICE EXCEPTIONAL.  REFERRING 
TO HIMSELF SEVERAL TIMES AS "A POLITICAL MAN", HE 
MADE NO SECRET OF THE FACT THAT HE REMAINS POLITICALLY 
ACTIVE, ALBEIT FROM A POSITION ON THE SIDELINES 
RATHER THAN CENTERFIELD. 
 
 
BISHOP