US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA3120

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 003120 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015 
TAGS: BO, KDEM, PREL, PHUM, EAID, PGOV, CA, SCRS 
SUBJECT: CANADA ON U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS -- ENGAGE 
FOREIGN NGO'S 
 
REF: SECSTATE 188900 
 
Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (C) Poloff shared U.S. views on democratization toward 
Belarus with Habib Massoud, Deputy Director at Foreign 
Affairs Canada for Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldavia.  Massoud 
was grateful for the readout of U.S. intentions in Belarus 
and explained how Canada views its role in the region.  As 
part of the International Policy Statement, Canada is trying 
to focus more effectively on issues where it has a 
comparative advantage, and on specific regions and countries 
where its influence can make a difference.  The view of the 
GOC is that Ukraine is more ripe for lasting reforms than 
Belarus and is so more susceptible to specific Canadian 
iniatives.  With regards to Belarus, Canada does not have 
strong interests, and does not see the country as very 
reformable, so it will engage it on the same level as 
Turkmenistan, effectively as a human rights problem.  Massoud 
did, however, indicate that Canada could shift its efforts 
quickly if there were indications of a workable program for 
reform taking hold in the short-term.  He said he would 
review our program with this in mind. 
 
2. (C) With regards to specific aspects of Belarus policy and 
possibilities, Massoud suggested that we try to involve 
foreign NGOs in media outreach and in democratization 
programs.  He said that Serbian youth NGOs, for example, were 
among the most effective in spreading the democratic fervor 
to Ukraine and thought there may be a way to similarly get 
them involved in Belarus.  They would be more effective even 
than foreign governments.  Massoud also said he believes 
European countries will need to get more involved to make any 
efforts effective, and expressed Canada's disappointment that 
they are not.  U.S. support for democratization is key 
symbolically but also distant, whereas countries such as 
Poland, with a more immediate interest in the transition in 
Belarus, should be able to do more and to do it more 
effectively.  There is also the danger, Massoud believes, of 
too close association of democratization efforts by the U.S., 
which could be presented as a CIA plot to control the country 
and thus backfire. 
 
3. (C) Massoud believes that countries like Canada would be 
able to shift resources quickly once there is an indication 
that things are moving in the right direction.  He does not 
believe this will happen for 2006, and said that the GOC has 
effectively written off the 2006 elections, and would focus 
instead on 2010.  He is not, in any event, convinced that 
Lukashenko is so unpopular, and thinks he might be able to 
win a free and fair election on his own.  Massoud believes 
including Russia as part of the strategy is also key, and he 
thinks there is a good chance that Russia in the end may do 
the right thing, not because it believes in democracy, but 
because Moscow too is tiring of the old-school regime in 
Belarus and fears instability that its perpetuation could 
bring. 
 
4. (SBU) Finally, Massoud asked about U.S. preparations for 
the Parliamentary elections in Ukraine, and asked for us to 
share anything we can in that regard to better inform 
Canada's preparations. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS