US embassy cable - 05HARARE1420

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001420 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: MOYO WEAVES TALE OF PARTIES IN DISARRAY 
 
REF: HARARE 001405 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) In an October 13 meeting with the Charge, Independent 
MP and former Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo said that 
both the opposition MDC and ruling ZANU-PF were significantly 
weakened since the March parliamentary elections.  The MDC, 
he said, had been focused inward since the elections and had 
missed an opportunity to mobilize the public over Operation 
Restore Order.  Moyo added that the MDC,s current division 
over whether to contest the Senate elections could be 
disastrous for the party.  Meanwhile, he said ZANU-PF was 
&terminally rotten8 and increasingly controlled by the 
security forces, which remained loyal to Mugabe.  Moyo said 
he agreed that a political transition was underway.  He 
predicted that the ruling party would attempt to put off the 
presidential elections until 2010 to give more time for 
Mugabe,s successor to settle into the job.  They would use 
as an excuse harmonizing the parliamentary and presidential 
elections.  Moyo was coy regarding the prospects for the 
so-called Third Force that he is associated with, conceding 
only that his nascent party was aggressively seeking 
defectors from the two established parties and that it would 
not contest the Senate elections.  End Summary. 
 
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MDC Licking Wounds 
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2.  (C) Moyo described the MDC as preoccupied with internal 
upheaval and said its actions since the March parliamentary 
elections had been ineffective.  Saying that the MDC had 
little future and no hope of making a recovery, Moyo assessed 
that the main opposition party had missed an opportunity to 
capitalize on public discontent over Operation Restore Order. 
 The public was ready to confront ZANU-PF but they needed 
guidance, which had not been forthcoming from the MDC.  Moyo 
said the MDC leadership was courageous but overall lacked a 
clear policy vision or strategy to confront the regime. 
 
3.  (C) Moyo pointed to the rift within the MDC surrounding 
participation in the upcoming Senate elections as evidence 
the party was in disarray (ref).  Moyo said that 
Tsvangirai,s opposition to participation was popular among 
 
SIPDIS 
the party,s grass roots supporters, especially the youth and 
women,s wings.  Nonetheless, the other five of the MDC,s 
top six leaders favored contesting the elections as had a 
majority of the party,s Executive Council.  Moyo claimed the 
party elite,s support for participation had more to do with 
self-interest and the desire for the perquisites of the 
Senate than ideological or strategic justifications. 
 
4.  (C) Moyo conceded that the MDC was still strong in the 
urban areas and in Matabeleland, its traditional strongholds, 
and that those who favored participation were right that the 
party should win the Senate seats in these areas regardless 
of ZANU-PF election rigging.  That said, it would be 
disastrous for the party to compete in the elections in its 
current state of disarray.  Moyo predicted that a portion of 
the party would participate regardless but without 
Tsvangirai,s active involvement, MDC turnout would be poor 
 
SIPDIS 
and the party would have the worst possible outcome: they 
would legitimize the Senate while losing badly at the polls. 
 
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ZANU Struggling with Transition, Growing Unpopularity 
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5.  (C) Moyo said he agreed with the view that the transition 
was already underway within ZANU-PF.  He said there were two 
competing views within ZANU-PF about how to handle the 
transition.  The first was that President Mugabe would give 
way to the new leader at some point in the next few years and 
give that individual time to settle into the presidency. 
Moyo predicted that under this scenario, ZANU-PF would use 
its two-thirds majority in parliament to extend the current 
presidential mandate until 2010, using as an excuse the need 
to harmonize the presidential and parliamentary elections, 
currently scheduled for 2008 and 2010 respectively.  This 
delay would allow Mugabe to step down sometime in the next 
few years, likely 2008.  The constitution would also be 
amended to allow his successor to then step into the 
presidency without an election and finish Mugabe,s term and 
then run in 2010 as the incumbent. 
 
6.  (C) However, Moyo said the other view was gaining 
currency, especially with the security forces, and he 
suspected might carry the day.  This view believed that the 
founding leaders must not be removed but instead allowed to 
die in office.  A transition while they were still alive 
would weaken the party and would be humiliating for the 
leaders, who would die outside of office.  Moyo said that 
however the transition played out, it would not lead to 
fundamental reform or to an economic turnaround.  There were 
no real moderates left within the ruling party.  The 
so-called young Turks only wanted the perquisites of power 
for themselves.  Moyo further rejected the argument that 
Mugabe was the main impediment to reform, saying that it was 
a convenient excuse and that Mugabe &is not a machine.8 
The real problem was the party itself. 
 
7.  (C) Moyo added that ZANU-PF knew it was deeply unpopular. 
 ZANU wanted to be loved, not feared, but growing 
unpopularity had forced the regime to rely increasingly on 
the security forces.  He contended that the party originally 
launched the land reform policy to win the public,s hearts 
and minds, but that the government ) a separate entity from 
the party in Moyo,s eyes - had mismanaged the initiative and 
fueled discontent.  According to Moyo, ZANU-PF has responded 
to growing discontent in &sinister ways8 such as the 
security forces, manipulation of the state-owned Grain 
Marketing Board and the distribution of food. 
 
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Moyo Tight-Lipped on Political Aspirations 
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8.  (C) Moyo refused to be drawn into a discussion of his or 
the third forces, political future, conceding only that he 
was vigorously seeking defections from the other established 
parties.  Arguing that participation in the Senate elections 
would only legitimize a corrupt institution and temporary 
institution (its due to go out of existence in five year,s 
time), he said his party would not participate in the 
November poll.  Nonetheless, he planned to exploit the 
campaign season to advance his party,s agenda. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) Moyo presented a cerebral and articulate analysis of 
the state of the two major political parties in Zimbabwe.  In 
fact, he may be the most astute politician in Zimbabwe today. 
 He is also a rank opportunist.  Although he refused to be 
drawn into discussions of &next steps8 for his nascent 
political force, it is clear that the chameleon-like Moyo is 
positioning himself as an alternative to the two main parties 
that he believes are increasingly fragile. 
DELL