US embassy cable - 05MANAMA1506

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001506 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, KISL, BA 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION GROUPS AL WIFAQ, NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC 
ACTION SOCIETY, VOTE TO REGISTER WITH GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: A. MANAMA 1347 
     B. MANAMA 1091 
     C. MANAMA 111 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Leading opposition societies Al Wifaq and the 
National Democratic Action Society (NDAS) in separate votes 
October 6 approved proposals to register with the government 
under the new political societies law.  Al Wifaq members 
approved the measure by a resounding 87 percent, and a 
majority of 66 percent of NDAS members voted in favor.  Prime 
Minister Shaikh Khalifa and Justice Minister Al Sitry both 
publicly welcomed the decisions to register and called for 
full participation in the 2006 parliamentary elections.  Al 
Wifaq also voted to change its internal structure, creating a 
three-branch system composed of a board, consultative 
council, and "judiciary" to settle disagreements between the 
board and the council.  President Shaikh Ali Salman said the 
new structure ensured decision-making is done collectively 
and not just by the board.  An Al Wifaq political committee 
member told us that Al Wifaq will become a smaller, nimbler 
political organization with more centrist policy positions. 
He affirmed that Al Wifaq will participate in the coming 
parliamentary elections.  NDAS President Ibrahim Sharif told 
us his organization had still not taken a decision on the 
elections, saying he hoped the government would carry out 
some electoral redistricting to more accurately reflect the 
principle of "one man one vote."  End Summary. 
 
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Boycotting Societies Vote to Register 
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2.  (U) Opposition societies Al Wifaq and the National 
Democratic Action Society voted separately October 6 to 
register with the Ministry of Justice under the provisions of 
Bahrain's political societies law, which entered into force 
in July 2005 (Ref B).  In an extraordinary general assembly 
held in the Saar meeting hall, 927 of 1062 Al Wifaq members 
present at the meeting voted in favor of registration, a 
landslide of 87 percent.  (Note:  The 1062 participants 
represent about two-thirds of Al Wifaq's traditional total of 
active, dues-paying members of about 1700.)  President Shaikh 
Ali Salman praised the members' willingness to register with 
the government, saying it demonstrated their readiness to 
deal with any political issues they face.  Salman cautioned, 
however, that the organization's decision to register did not 
imply an impending decision to participate in the October 
2006 parliamentary elections, saying this was "another 
matter." 
 
3.  (U) Members of the National Democratic Action Society 
(NDAS) voted the same day to register with the government by 
a vote of 160 of 242, a majority of 66 percent.  They also 
voted to change the name of the organization to Al Wa'ad, 
"The Promise."  (Note:  The 242 voters is about the same 
number of members that have participated in other society 
activities.  NDAS claims about 600 total members, but only 
some 250 are active, dues-paying members.) 
 
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PM Welcomes Decisions 
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4.  (U) Prime Minister Shaikh Khalifa October 15 publicly 
praised the decisions of political societies to register with 
the government.  He called for the participation of all 
political societies in the 2006 parliamentary elections.  He 
hailed the role of parliament and pledged stronger 
cooperation between the executive and legislative branches. 
Justice Minister Dr. Mohammed Al Sitry also welcomed the 
societies' decisions to register.  He pointed out that the 
law specifically grants societies the right to carry out 
political activities, a new development.  Before passage of 
the law, there was no legal basis for societies to conduct 
political work in the country, although the government 
permitted political societies to operate under the 1989 
societies law, which was supposed to cover social 
organizations only. 
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More Democratic Internal Framework for Al Wifaq 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
5.  (U) Al Wifaq members also voted October 13 to install a 
new internal structure for the organization.  The move 
creates three branches - a president with a board of 
directors appointed by the president; a "shura," or 
consultative, council to serve as a legislature; and a 
judiciary to mediate and settle disagreements between the 
executive and legislature.  A general assembly composed of 
representatives from every village/neighborhood will vote for 
the president and the 50 members of the shura council.  The 
judiciary will be composed of appointed members at least 30 
years old who are known to have sound judgment.  (Note: 
Judiciary members will not be shariah law scholars.)  Both 
the president and the shura council can propose new rules and 
policies and the shura council will vote on them.  The 
president can veto a measure passed by the shura, but the 
shura can override the veto by a vote of two-thirds of its 
members.  Previously, Al Wifaq was governed only by a board 
of directors and a president selected by the board. 
 
6.  (U) Salman said publicly that the new structure is the 
framework of a party and will improve the quality of 
political work carried out by the society.  It will give more 
power to members, he stated, ensuring that decision-making is 
made collectively and not just by the board.  The press 
reported October 16 that Salman nominated himself for the 
position of president. 
 
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Al Wifaq to Participate in Elections 
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7.  (C) Al Wifaq political committee member Nizar Al Qari 
(protect throughout) told Pol/Econ chief October 15 that the 
organization will be smaller than it has been previously, 
when there were some 30,000 paid-up members and 40,000 
supporters.  (Comment:  The membership figures are 
misleading.  While technically accurate, the 30,000 number 
comes as a result of a membership drive in early 2004 in 
support of a petition for constitutional change.  As noted 
above, active, dues-paying members number about 1700.) 
Smaller numbers will allow the society to be more nimble 
politically.  Al Qari said that businessmen Faisal Jawad and 
Nizar Al Baharna are responsible for bringing a core of 
moderate business people into society to develop centrist 
political and economic policies.  The focus of Al Wifaq's 
activities will be on promoting the interests of members and 
the Shia community more broadly from within the system rather 
than from the outside via demonstrations and confrontation. 
 
8.  (C) In response to Pol/Econ chief's question, Al Qari 
said, "Yes, we will participate in parliamentary and 
municipal elections."  Either Al Wifaq members themselves 
will run for office or the organization will throw its 
support behind candidates with similar policy positions.  He 
cited MPs Abdul Nabi Salman and Abdul Hadi Marhoon as being 
politicians Al Wifaq would support.  Al Wifaq is no longer 
insisting on a concession from the King to justify a decision 
to participate.  Al Qari said they are ready to engage now. 
Al Wifaq will seek to create opportunities in the Council of 
Representatives for its constituents and not rely upon 
gestures from the King. 
 
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Closing the Credibility Gap 
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9.  (C) Al Qari emphasized that Al Wifaq is trying to "close 
the gap" with the royal family to establish confidence and 
credibility, and even cooperation in some areas (which he did 
not specify).  Al Wifaq is studying "loyal oppositions" in 
other countries to learn how to work within system from a 
position of opposition.  He commented that the credibility 
gap is large, saying that the royal family is suspicious of 
the loyalty of all Shia in Bahrain, whether from local 
Bahraini or Iranian origin.  Morocco's government is a model 
for Al Wifaq, Al Qari said, because the Prime Minister is a 
former exile and convicted torturers formerly with the 
security services have been put in jail. 
 
10.  (C) Al Qari said that former Al Wifaq board members 
Hassan Mushaima and Abdul Jalil Singace, whose resignations 
still have not been accepted by the group, will try to create 
a "civil rights movement" among Shia, not a competing 
political society.  The Al Wifaq board continues to 
coordinate with Mushaima and Singace.  Faisal Jawad told the 
Ambassador October 15 that the board had consulted with 
Mushaima and Singace on the proposed party framework that was 
approved on October 13, and even accepted one of their 
recommendations.  However, Al Qari said that Al Wifaq will no 
longer try to rein in and protect the more extreme elements 
of the Shia community, saying "Let the Bahrain National 
Security Agency and police do their job, not Al Wifaq." 
 
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Al Wa'ad Remains Undecided About Elections 
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11.  (C) Al Wa'ad (former NDAS) President Ibrahim Sharif told 
Pol/Econ chief October 17 that the one-third of the society's 
members who voted against registration respect the will of 
the majority and have not indicated any intention of leaving 
the group.  The board deliberately left vague some of the 
articles of registration that will be deposited with the 
Ministry of Justice, in particular the minimum age of 
membership.  He noted that under the political societies law, 
members must be 21 years of age or older, whereas under the 
1989 societies law, the minimum age of membership was 18.  In 
its internal regulations, Al Wa'ad will require that voting 
members be 21 while non-voting members must be at least 18. 
(Note:  Justice Minister Al Sitry has hinted publicly that he 
would not object to an arrangement such as that described by 
Sharif.) 
 
12.  (C) Sharif said it was still too early to say whether Al 
Wa'ad would participate in parliamentary and municipal 
elections in 2006.  The October 6 vote was on registration 
only, not election participation.  There are strong advocates 
within Al Wa'ad for and against participation.  Sharif said 
he hopes the King will address some of the most blatant 
shortcomings in Bahrain's election law; doing so would 
encourage Al Wa'ad to participate.  He cited electoral 
district boundaries as the single most problematic provision 
in the election law.  While Sharif does not expect the King 
or parliament to draw new boundaries that accurately reflect 
the principle of "one man one vote," he thought some 
redistricting would create the right political environment 
for Al Wa'ad and others to participate fully in the elections. 
 
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Comment 
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13.  (C) As described Ref A, the July law put opposition 
political societies on the defensive.  Advocates for 
participation from inside Al Wifaq and Al Wa'ad, most 
importantly the leadership of both groups, used the law's 
requirement to register with the government as an opportunity 
to promote their points of view - successfully, in both 
cases.  Al Wifaq's apparent decisions to moderate its 
policies and participate in parliamentary elections will give 
a huge boost to Bahrain's fledgling democracy and added 
legitimacy to parliament.  Al Wa'ad's Sharif appears to be 
steering his society in the same direction, but he is still 
holding out for some government gesture on redistricting. 
Momentum is building for full participation in parliamentary 
elections, now just 12 months away. 
 
MONROE