US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8061

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: GROWING FEARS OF AN INDECISIVE OUTCOME AS BIHAR 
GOES TO THE POLLS 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Bihar goes to the polls tomorrow, October 
18, in its second set of State elections in less than nine 
months.  Over 500  candidates made their last efforts over 
the past weekend to sway voters, in what all observers 
believe will be a close election.  However, the Rashtriya 
Janata Dal (RJD) under the leadership of United Progressive 
Alliance (UPA) Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, looks to 
be weaker coming into this election than in the February,s 
hung election, giving  the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 
of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and the Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP)  an opportunity to pick up additional votes and 
tilt the balance in their favor.  The lack of a clear winner 
is sparking growing fears that this election could be just as 
indecisive as the last and leave the state with a "hung 
parliament" yet again.  End Summary 
 
 
2.  (U) With polling for the first phase of the State 
elections set to begin on October 18, over 500  candidates 
ended their campaigning on October 16 in Bihar,s 57 Assembly 
constituencies.  Four (out of the total 61) constituencies in 
Naxalite-hit Gaya district were excluded from the first phase 
for  security reasons.  Polling in these constituencies will 
now take place on October 21. 
 
3.  (U) Bihar has always experienced violence during 
elections and recent campaigning was marred by the October 6 
attack on former Union Minister and BJP leader Ravi Shankar 
Prasad while addressing a rally.  One person was also 
arrested at a Lalu Prasad rally for carrying a revolver. 
Bihar Chief Secretary GS Kang assigned  around 90,000 Central 
Para-Military Forces, Bihar military police, armed police and 
home guards to provide security, while Indian Air Force 
choppers patrolled the skies to ward off any threat from 
Naxalites, who put up posters in 12 districts warning 
villagers that they faced severe consequences if they went to 
the polls.  The state's Chief Electoral Officer NK Sinha also 
specified that the Election Commission would not allow voting 
in booths without adequate security. 
 
 4.  (U) There are over 12 million eligible voters in the 
State and 13,338 polling stations.  The Bihar election office 
told media that more than 140,000 criminals were arrested in 
the past three months in a special drive launched at the 
behest of the Chief Election Commission.  The police also 
seized over 3,000 firearms and unearthed over 100 illegal gun 
factories. 
 
5.   (U) Just as in the February 2005 elections, the UPA is 
less unified than the opposition NDA.  However, this time 
there will be  a three-way split, as Ram Vilas Paswan and his 
Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) has left the UPA and set up its 
own electoral coalition.  That means that this year's 
election will be a triangular contest between the NDA (BJP 
and JD(U)), the  RJD-led Secular Democratic Front  (Congress, 
NCP) and the LJP coalition (LJP, CPI and CPI(M)). 
 
6.  (U) The first phase is most crucial for the RJD, which 
must demonstrate that it has sufficient momentum to win a 
clear victory and form the government.  It must do better 
than it did in the February parliamentary elections,  when 
the results were: 
 
-RJD 23 
 
-JD (U) 12 
 
-BJP 4 
 
-LJP 9 
 
-CPI-ML 4 
 
-Samajwadi Party 1 
 
-Congress 1 
 
-independents 3 
 
7.  (U) The last Assembly election was a very close contest 
between the RJD and the NDA in terms of votes polled. 
 
-RJD  75 seats (25.07 per cent) 
 
-NDA  92 seats ( 25.52 per cent) 
 
-JD (U)  55 seats (14.55 per cent) 
-BJP 37 seats (10.97 per cent) 
 
-LJP 29 seats  (12 per cent) 
 
-Congress 10 seats (5 per cent) 
 
-NCP 3 seats ( 0.98 per cent) 
 
-CPI-ML 7 seats (2.49 per cent) 
 
-CPI 3 seats  (1.58 per cent) 
 
-CPI-M 1 seat (0.64 per cent) 
 
-Samajwadi Party 4 seats (2.69 per cent) 
 
-BSP 2 seats (4.41 per cent) 
 
-and independents 17 seats (16.16 per cent. 
 
9.  (SBU) Comment.  Lalu, the RJD and its UPA partners seem 
weaker going into this election compared to February. 
Paswan,s effort to create a third bloc appears to have had 
more of an impact on the RJD than the NDA in that he may have 
split the crucial Muslim vote.  In addition, the JD(U), even 
given its alliance with the BJP, seems to be attracting some 
Muslim votes as well.  Finally, the RJD is facing greater 
resentment after its 14 years of misrule, causing more of its 
once-enthusiastic constituents within the Muslim and backward 
caste communities to openly express a desire for change.  One 
of the three contesting coalitions must score a decisive 
victory to form a stable government.  With such a close 
three-way contest, there are growing fears that Bihar could 
face yet another "hung assembly" and growing instability. 
BLAKE