US embassy cable - 05ALMATY3790

UNCLAS  ALMATY 003790 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDDUP, 
OCTOBER 17 
 
1. (U) This is the fourth in a series of weekly election 
roundups, in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections. Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
Nomination Period Ends 
---------------------- 
 
2. (U) The nomination period ended on October 3.  Of the 
18 individuals who filed applications for registration, 13 
met the pre-registration language requirement.  Former 
wrestling coach Zhaksybay Bazilbayev withdrew from the 
race on October 10, leaving 12 candidates.  As of October 
14, only three candidates -- Nursultan Nazarbayev, 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, and Yerasyl Abylkasymov - had 
submitted their signatures to the Central Election 
Commission (CEC) for review.  Although the CEC recommended 
that candidates submit their signatures by October 14 in 
order to allow sufficient time for review, Alikhan 
Baimenov was expected to submit his materials the 
following week. 
 
3. (U) The CEC announced on October 7 that President 
Nazarbayev's application had been approved and he had been 
officially registered as a candidate.  Despite reports 
that many of the signatures gathered in support of 
Tuyakbay in Atyrau Oblast had been invalidated, the CEC 
announced on October 15 that Tuyakbay had also been 
officially registered as a candidate. 
 
 
Accusations of Illegal Campaigning 
---------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The sides are trading accusations of illegal 
campaigning.  The opposition has accused Nazarbayev of 
illegal early campaigning, due to the president's 
involvement in high-profile public events, party meetings, 
public associations' congresses, and meetings with 
Hollywood celebrities and well-known sportsmen.  The 
opposition underscores the broad press coverage such 
events have received. 
 
5. (SBU) On October 6, the Procurator General's office 
issued a press release about falsifications during the 
signature collection campaign in six regions.  The press 
release did not name which candidates' representatives 
were involved.  Arman Shurayev, of President Nazarbayev's 
election headquarters, alleged that some people collected 
signatures for other candidates under the false pretense 
of gathering signatures for Nazarbayev.  The procuracy 
announcement urged voters who discover forgery to file 
complaints with election commissions. 
 
6.  (U) Mazhilis member Abylkasymov issued a statement 
calling for the resignation of the Cabinet and of corrupt 
regional and district level akims, without naming the 
regional leaders he had in mind. Several MPs accused him 
of using his parliamentary position to conduct illegal pre- 
election campaigning and filed official complaints with 
the CEC and the Procurator General. 
 
 
Tuyakbay Stays on the Offensive 
------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) In an October 4 open letter to President 
Nazarbayev, Zharmakhan Tuyakbay accused the president of 
being the principal shareholder and the real owner of 
Kazakhstani copper giant Kazakhmys.  In the letter, 
Tuyakbay wrote that in January 1997 Kazakhmys had been 
illegally privatized and sold to Samsung Deutschland GmbH. 
In 2002 Samsung sold its shares to three managers of the 
enterprise: president Vladimir Kim (47%), general manager 
Yong Ku Cha (38.1%), and Oleg Novachuk (12.5%). 
"According to foreign analysts, the cost of the enterprise 
is about $3.5-4 billion," the letter said.  "Tell me how a 
former employee of Lenin District Executive Committee, 
Vladimir Kim, became an owner of the copper giant," 
Tuyakbay asked.  The letter also cited the Sunday Times, 
which reported that the third shareholder, Oleg Novachuk, 
had been Financial Advisor to President Nazarbayev. 
Tuyakbay also asked how the president's brother, Bolat 
Nazarbayev, had happened to be a member of the board of 
 
 
directors of Kazakhmys for a long period. 
 
 
CEC Makes Several Commitments 
----------------------------- 
 
8.  (U) On October 11, the CEC issued a statement calling 
on all presidential candidates and their teams to observe 
the law and to utilize peaceful and non-violent means in 
their campaign.  The statement spells out several 
commitments to ensure fair elections, including ensuring 
equal access to the media, objective press coverage, 
permission to hold rallies, welcoming foreign observers, 
and publishing precinct-by-precinct results within 24 
hours. 
 
9. (SBU) "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) immediately labeled 
the CEC statement a populist gesture timed to coincide 
with Secretary Rice's visit to Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev's 
supporters, on the other hand, welcomed the statement as 
very timely. In conversations with post, Baimenov was 
guardedly optimistic about the statement. 
 
10. (U) Kazakhstan's election legislation is very close to 
international standards, CEC chairman Onalsyn Zhumabekov 
stated on October 5 in Astana.  "We closely cooperate with 
the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human 
Rights.  Kazakhstan took into consideration 
recommendations of international organizations following 
the election to parliament last year," Zhumabekov added. 
 
 
Observers 
--------- 
 
11.  (U) According to the CEC, about one thousand 
observers from the OSCE and CIS will monitor the 
presidential election.  "We expect 36 long-term observers 
and about 400 short-term observers from the OSCE Bureau on 
Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, and about the 
same number of observers from the CIS," CEC representative 
Tatyana Okhlopkova said at a meeting organized by NDI in 
Astana on October 13.  Accreditation of foreign observers 
will proceed until November 28. 
 
12.  (U) At the same meeting, Okhlopkova accused the OSCE 
of providing a biased assessment of the 2004 parliamentary 
elections.  "There is a group of countries in the OSCE 
which scrutinize election shortcomings through a 
magnifying glass and do not see the same flaws in other 
countries."  Okhlopkova referred to electoral systems in 
Great Britain, where election campaigns are carried out by 
municipal officials, and Norway, where ballots are counted 
by law enforcement agencies.   Okhlopkova also praised the 
"Sailau" e-voting system used in Kazakhstan, claiming 
other nations had criticized the system because they 
envied Kazakhstan. 
 
13. (SBU) Okhlopkova was echoing comments made on October 
8 by CEC chairman Zhumabekov, who publicly criticized the 
OSCE for sending observers from "one and the same 
countries" to Kazakhstan.  First Deputy Foreign Minister 
Rakhat Aliyev, speaking at a Central Asian media 
conference in Almaty on October 13, attempted to mute the 
criticism by expressing his confidence in the high level 
of professionalism and objectivity among OSCE observers. 
Zhumabekov himself announced on October 14 that by 
inviting all 55 member-states to send observers to 
Kazakhstan, the OSCE had heeded his recommendation. 
 
Survey of experts 
----------------- 
 
14. (SBU) According to a poll of 30 political experts 
conducted by the Eurasian Rating Agency, Nursultan 
Nazarbayev will win 65.8% of votes in the first round of 
the presidential race.  Alikhan Baimenov and Zharmakhan 
Tuyakbay will compete for second place, with 9.88% and 
9.61% respectively.  Eccentric MP Yerasyl Abylkasymov is 
expected to come in fourth with 4.24%.  Green movement 
proponent Mels Yeleusizov will be fifth with 3.47%. 
Senator Ualikhan Kaysarov will be sixth with 2.88%.  The 
rest of the candidates would each receive less than 1% of 
the vote. During the survey more than 30 political experts 
 
 
were questioned, including representatives of public 
associations, political parties, analysts, sociologists, 
officials and journalists.  No one who was questioned had 
doubts that Nazarbayev would win in the first round. 
 
Concerns of Human Right Advocates 
--------------------------------- 
 
15. (U) On September 28, the Kazakhstan Bureau for Human 
Rights and Rule of Law issued a statement voicing concern 
over pressure on the opposition candidates and their 
supporters.  The statement called on the president to 
provide for freedom of speech, peaceful assembly and the 
right for political activities including opposition ones. 
 
Almaty Police Seize Brochures with Draft Constitution 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
16. (U) On October 5, 30 uniformed police officers and 15 
individuals in plain clothes arrived at a private home in 
Almaty to seize brochures containing FJK's proposed draft 
constitution.  The owner of the house Aydar Kinayatoldin 
and opposition activist Yermurat Bapi tried to resist the 
seizure.  The officers however produced a court order from 
the Medeu district court of Almaty based on a complaint 
from a man who said his picture had been used in the 
publication without his permission, and seized 151,000 
copies of the brochure.  Later that same day, the police 
returned and seized an additional 40,000 copies. 
 
Unsanctioned Rally Leads to Arrests 
----------------------------------- 
 
17. (SBU) On October 12, FJK and Communist Party leader 
Tulen Tokhtasynov was arrested in front of FJK 
headquarters in Almaty as he was leaving for the airport 
to fly to Astana to attend the Secretary's speech.  Twenty 
heavily armed police in riot gear arrested him on charges 
of an administrative violation for participating in an 
"unsanctioned rally" on October 8 in Almaty.  (According 
to FJK members, they applied for a permit for a rally and 
when it was denied, they instead organized an outdoor 
"meeting" between Senator Zauresh Battalova and 2000 of 
her constituents.)  Tokhtasynov was released later on 
October 12 after paying a fine of 50,000 KZT ($375), and 
attended the Secretary's October 13 speech in Astana. 
 
18. (SBU) Legal proceedings have reportedly begun on the 
same charges against other FJK leaders, including Bulat 
Abilov, Oraz Zhandosov, Amyrzhan Kosanov, Gulzhan 
Yergaliyeva and Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly.  Despite 
indications from the GOK that the arrest had been an 
aberration, FJK leader Bulat Abilov was detained following 
an October 17 press conference in Almaty.  According to an 
FJK press release, the detention occurred despite the fact 
that the hearing in Abilov's case had been postponed until 
October 18.  He was reportedly taken to court. 
 
 
Youth Activists Detained in Almaty 
---------------------------------- 
 
19.  (U) On October 10, a group of 53 young people 
participating in a conference organized by the FJK Youth 
League and "Alga" were arrested as they marched to lay a 
wreath on the Independence Memorial at the central square 
of Almaty.  They were kept at Bostandyk district police 
office for over three hours.  The activists claim that 
they were harassed, intimidated and mistreated.   The next 
day 45 participants were tried; two received warnings, and 
others received fines of up to 20,000 tenge ($150). 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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