US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4270

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004270 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Elections, Parliament 
SUBJECT: ALLAWI ALLY ON FORMER PM'S EFFORT TO BUILD A 
COALITION FOR DECEMBER'S ELECTION 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary. With the Conference of Centrists and 
Moderation underway, Allawi supporter and former 
Planning Minister Medhi Hafedh has gathered a myriad 
of Sunni, Shia and Kurds that may possibly form 
alliances with Ayad Allawi for the December elections. 
Hafedh reported that Allawi's political campaign 
organization is taking shape, citing a new director, 
established working committees and launch of a media 
campaign.  Although Hafedh expressed doubt that Shia 
Islamist parties have organized, he suggests that the 
recent corruption scandals naming Allawi allies are 
the work of Islamist parties, especially Ahmed 
Chalabi, to smear Allawi's reputation before the 
elections.  End Summary. 
 
Conference of Centrists and Moderation 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) On October 17, Emboffs met with Chairman of 
the Iraqi Centre for Development & International 
Dialogue and former IIG Minister of Planning Dr. Mehdi 
Hafedh.  As the chief planner of Allawi's Conference 
of Centrists and Moderation, Hafedh said he expects 
700-800 participants to attend an October 17 
conference in Baghdad.  He labeled the conference the 
largest gathering of non-sectarian liberal democrats 
who will participate in the December 15 elections. 
 
3.  (SBU) Hafedh said the conference planning 
committee worked hard to recruit a balanced list of 
speakers.  In addition to Ayad Allawi, the 14 
politicians scheduled are: 
 
Nadeem al-Jabiri, Head of Fadeela Party 
Hachem al-Hassani, TNA Speaker of the House (Sunni 
Independent) 
Hossain al-Adili, Head of Democratic Islamic Trends 
Hamid Moussa, Head of the Iraqi Communist Party 
Shaikh Ghazi Ajeel al-Yawar, Tribal Sunni Independent 
Adnan al-Pachachi, Independent Democrats Party 
Wijdan, Iraqi National Accord 
Mahmud Ali Othman, Kurdistan National Struggle 
Organization 
Abdulillah an-Nasrawi, Arab Socialist Movement 
Nasir al-Chaderchi, National Democratic Party 
Rassim al-Awadi Iraqi National Accord 
Izzet Shahbandar, Islamic Democratic Trend 
Safia al-Suheil 
Nasir al-Aani, Iraqi Islamic Party (Sunni) 
 
Coalition building 
------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Hafedh told Poloffs that even though a myriad 
of Sunni, Shia, Kurdish political parties have 
accepted conference invitations, there were no 
guarantees these parties would commit to joining 
Allawi's coalition now.  He added that the conference 
was only the first step in forming alliances.  Hafedh 
claimed that Masoud Barzani expressed interest in 
helping Allawi's coalition.  Hafedh felt confident 
that there was enough time for Allawi to negotiate 
with prospective parties and secure commitments by the 
IECI coalition registration deadline of October 21st. 
 
Allawi's campaign already in full swing 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) By incorporating Sunni, Kurdish and Shia 
political figures, Allawi could bridge regional gaps, 
Hafedh claimed.  He admitted that this was one of the 
flaws of Allawi's last campaign.  Hadfedh said that 
the Allawi camp also anticipates the December election 
campaign will be 18 separate elections in 18 
governorates and that the Allawi list composition will 
vary substantially in each governorate. 
 
6.  (C) Hafedh also stated that Allawi's group has 
already formed its campaign committees.  Hafedh 
reported that Allawi is implementing part of the media 
campaign by reaching out to friendly Arab governments 
and cited Allawi's upcoming visit to Turkey. 
 
7.  (C) Hafedh admitted to Poloffs that Allawi's team 
plans to be ready to register by October 21st IECI 
deadline.  Hadfedh said that he expects that the Shia 
Islamists will not be ready to form a unified list 
again by October 21.  Dawa and Moqtada al-Sadr likely 
will form an alliance, he speculated, but they may not 
make the October 21 deadline.  He said he also expects 
Ayatollah al-Sistani would not endorse any one list, 
making it more difficult for Shia to form alliances. 
 
Smear Campaign already in play 
------------------------------ 
 
8.  (C) When asked about recent arrest warrants issued 
for ministers who worked for Allawi, Hafedh said this 
was a sure sign of political manipulation by both 
Islamists, and especially Ahmed Chalabi, to stain 
Allawi's campaign.  He cited the lack of transparency 
with the investigation and suggested that an 
accounting company like KPMG Peat Marwick conduct a 
formal audit of the alleged financial corruption. 
Hafedh insisted that TNA member and head of SCIRI's 
Badr Organization, Abdel Hadi al-Amari, is behind the 
campaign to slap Allawi ex-ministers with corruption 
charges. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) We will report further on the Allawi 
coalition building effort as we gather more 
information.  We caution that the coalition has not 
solidified much apart from the Communists signing up. 
On the positive side, NDI's Iraq director, who helped 
Allawi reach out to other parties during the summer, 
told us October 17 that Allawi's campaign organization 
is starting to take shape.  He said it has far to go, 
but it is well ahead of where it was going into the 
January 2005 election. 
Khalilzad