US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4268

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004268 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, IZ, Elections 
SUBJECT: IRAQI POLITICIANS SPINNING REFERENDUM  RESULTS 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for 
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Iraqi politicians were quick to begin 
spinning results of the October 15 referendum, issuing 
statements to the media on provincial voting well 
before the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq 
(IECI) began its tally of governorate ballot sheets. 
While such spinning is to be expected after a major 
vote, in the current Iraqi context, pre-tally 
assertions about the outcome threaten to undermine the 
credibility of the ultimate referendum result.  This 
is of particular concern in Ninewa, as Kurdish, Shia 
and Sunni Arab leaders have made strident and 
dramatically different pronouncements about the 
percentages of "yes" and "no" votes in this 
potentially decisive swing province. Such pre-tally 
rhetoric could lay the groundwork for future 
assertions that the referendum results were cooked. 
We are urging the political parties to stop talking 
about the outcome in the media and to let the IECI 
finish the count first.  We are urging the IECI to 
reiterate its commitment to the integrity of the 
process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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SPINNING TAKES OFF 
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2. (C) With the fate of the draft constitution likely 
hanging on results in Ninewa and Salah ad-Din 
provinces, Shia, Kurdish and Sunni Arab politicians 
began to declare results October 15, even though the 
IECI did not begin to tally ballot sheets until 1000 
hrs, October 17.   Ammar al-Hakim (son of SCIRI leader 
Abd' al-Aziz) was quoted on al-Sharqia television 
October 16 as saying that 70 percent of Ninewa had 
voted yes.  Ninewa Deputy Governor Khasro Goran said 
on al-Arabiya television October 16 that 60 percent of 
the provincial vote had been in support of the 
constitution. 
 
3. (C) For their part, Sunni Arab leaders appear to be 
waging a preemptive media campaign against a possible 
positive referendum result, assailing its credibility 
even as the vote count proceeds.  National Dialogue 
Council Spokesman Sa'adun Zubaidi claimed in an 
October 16 al-Hurra broadcast that the referendum 
process was illegitimate because copies of the 
constitution were not distributed early enough to the 
Iraqi people for them to have a chance to absorb them. 
A spokesman for a group calling itself the "Mosul 
Independents" asserted in an October 16 al-Sharqiyya 
TV interview that all of Ninewa had voted against the 
constitution and that any results indicating otherwise 
were clearly forged. 
 
4. (C) Meanwhile, Sunni Arab politician Saleh Mutlak 
appeared on al-Jazeera and al-Arabia October 16 to 
predict -- and to "warn" the USG -- about potential 
civil disobedience by Sunni Arabs if a "yes" vote 
"proved" there was referendum fraud in Ninewah.  After 
Mutlak's statements, PolCouns called him to urge him 
to avoid inflammatory rhetoric and bring any evidence 
he has of fraud to the attention of the IECI.  Mutlak 
conceded he had no evidence.  However, he noted that 
the National Dialogue Council has observers in Ninewa 
who report that the provincial vote in the referendum 
had gone 80 percent against the constitution.  Multak 
added that the disparity between these reports and 
Shia and Kurdish claims that the vote had gone heavily 
the other way suggested the danger of fraud. 
 
5. (C) Separately, Poloff received four calls in the 
space of two hours the evening of October 16, from 
Zuhair Humadi, senior aide to VP Abd' al-Mahdi 
(SCIRI), concerning Ninewa results.  In his initial 
call, Zuhair assured poloff that northern Ninewa and 
Mosul had voted overwhelmingly in support of the 
constitution.  Poloff replied that he could not 
comment as we were getting conflicting, preliminary 
reports.  Zuhair called back shortly thereafter to say 
that votes cast in the province had been only 600,000 
(preliminary IECI estimates are that Ninewa 
participation was around 800,000).  In his third call 
Zuhair reported that he had heard from a reliable 
source that ballot counting had yet to begin for 
either Mosul or Tikrit.  Another SCIRI source 
contacted another Poloff making similar assertions. 
Embassy poloffs in both instances urged that Iraqi 
political figures avoid stating numerical results and 
to let the IECI make the official pronouncements. 
 
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NEED FOR IECI CLARITY 
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6. (C) In separate October 16 conversations with 
poloffs, UN/EAD chief Carina Perelli and IECI 
Commissioner Farid Ayar verified that the Commission 
intended to release preliminary referendum results on 
or about October 17, with uncertified final figures 
around October 19.  Perelli acknowledged that the IECI 
needs to be out front in publicly replying to partisan 
spinning of the Ninewa results, such as Mutlak's 
implication about fraud in Ninewa.  She agreed to push 
Commissioner Farid Ayar to make a strong statement 
affirming commitment to a fair count, including in 
Sunni Arab majority areas. Poloff also asked that UN 
EAD staff verify the secure status of ballot documents 
throughout the country in IECI-controlled warehouses. 
He asked that particular attention be paid to security 
in areas where the outcome may be close and local 
militias are strong.  (COMMENT: Perelli is currently 
scheduled to leave Iraq on or about October 20.  In 
light of the potentially serious controversy over the 
referendum outcome, her departure before the final 
results are announced would be especially problematic. 
END COMMENT) 
 
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PRESS REPORTS QUESTIONED 
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7. (C) Meanwhile press reports appeared October 16 
quoting IECI provincial staff commentary on 
governorate outcomes.  Samira Mohammed Al Nea'mi, an 
IECI information department employee in Mosul, was 
quoted by the Associated Press October 16 as having 
reported that 300,000 Ninewa voters had supported the 
constitution and 80,000 had opposed.  REO Mosul 
contacted Al Nea'mi late October 16, and she denied 
ever having provided this information. 
 
8. (C) In an October 16 conversation with UN elections 
officer David Avery, poloff raised a similar report 
from Salah ad-Deen, quoting a provincial IECI source 
as saying voters in the province had overwhelmingly 
voted 'no'.  Poloff noted that such pre-tally media 
reports could undermine public confidence in the 
credibility of the referendum process.  Avery agreed, 
and told poloff that IECI Baghdad has previously 
instructed each GEO to conduct a review of the 
'Counting Form 98' and pass only the 'yes' and 'no' 
totals back to the IECI.  Avery explained that the 
IECI intended to use this data as a preliminary count 
only so as to be available for release given expected 
high demand for numbers.  Although each GEO is 
prohibited from making these figures public, Avery 
said that political entity monitors present at counts 
may in some cases have leaked information.  Avery said 
that information in the press about returns should at 
this stage be disregarded. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9. (C) Some spinning is to be expected, but these pre- 
tally pronouncements by Iraqi political leaders 
threatens to spread into a campaign on either side 
questioning the results.  We will keep urging the 
politicians to let the IECI make the announcements of 
official results and to use IECI mechanisms to 
question any tallies. 
Khalilzad