US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8054

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008054 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, SCUL, PINR, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: RAJASTHAN PROVIDES NO LET-UP IN UNRELENTING BAD 
NEWS FOR THE BJP 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Rajasthan has joined a long list of places 
where BJP fortunes are on the wane.  Vasundhara Raje pulled 
off a stunning upset victory to become Chief Minister in 2003 
and many thought her administration would be one of the rare 
"success stories" for the embattled BJP.  However, her party 
is deeply divided, her opponents are plotting against her, 
and she has proven to be an ineffective administrator facing 
allegations of misrule and corruption.  This has prompted 
growing speculation that the BJP may remove her and install a 
new Chief Minister closer to the RSS.  With the BJP's 
fortunes on the decline in Rajasthan, even such a radical 
move may not stave off defeat in the next election scheduled 
for 2007.  End Summary. 
 
All-pervading Factionalism 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Reflecting the national trend, there is a growing 
divide in the Rajasthan BJP between RSS and non-RSS factions. 
 A public letter written by Chandraj Singhvi, a leading 
politician and an architect of Raje's upset victory in 2003, 
recently complained that non-RSS party members were being 
given "step-motherly treatment" in Rajasthan, and accused the 
BJP of placing only Sangh-Parivar members in important 
positions.  Singhvi predicted that this course would lead to 
"decades" of defeat for the BJP. 
 
3.  (U) On October 6, Education Minister Ghanshyam Tiwari and 
Industries Minister Narpat Singh Rajvi openly revolted 
against Raje, accusing her of heavy-handedness and implying 
that her administration encouraged corruption.  They 
complained of a "lack of transparency" in the approval of 
major industrial development projects such as the World Trade 
Park and several Special Economic Zones (SEZ's).  Rajasthan 
recently awarded 1,000 acres of land to Mahindra and Mahindra 
for a "technology corridor," and Tiwari asserted that Raje 
took the land from farmers in his constituency without 
adequate payment, and without first consulting the cabinet. 
 
Tales of Woe 
------------ 
 
4.  (C) During Poloff's October 6-7 visit to Jaipur, 
journalists and politicians confirmed that all was not well 
with the BJP in the state.  Rohit Parihar of "India Today" 
described how Rajasthani Media has linked close Raje 
associates, including a state Cabinet Minister, to well-known 
prostitutes/dancing girls.  Parihar confirmed that the 
growing split between RSS and non-RSS factions was encouraged 
by Raje's long-term rival Murli Manohar Joshi.  Raje was also 
stung by the negative media coverage following the revelation 
of the total disappearance of tigers from the Rathambore game 
reserve, and her centralization of excise duty collection has 
led to falling revenues and growing corruption allegations. 
 
5.  (C) Education Minister Tiwari complained to Poloff that 
tens of millions of rupees were disappearing, the "technology 
corridor" was a land giveaway, and that Raje has padded her 
cabinet with the "worst" politicians in the state.  Tiwari 
predicted that Joshi will become BJP President in December 
and remove Raje.  He explained that with the Congress 
opposition weak and divided, the BJP has descended into 
factionalism and corruption and that Joshi will have to 
"clean house." 
 
Coup Plotting 
------------- 
 
6.  (C) BJP leader and MLA Vishwa Modi confided that he is 
secretly plotting with fellow MLA's from the BJP and Congress 
 
SIPDIS 
to form a new regional party to capture power.  Modi claimed 
that most MLA's are unhappy with Congress and BJP "meddling," 
although the BJP is the "worst party in the state," because 
of its dominance by "RSS idiots" with no administrative 
ability.  The new party would renounce Hindutva and actively 
recruit Muslims, Hindus, and Dalits to construct a stable 
coalition capable of winning and holding power.  He predicted 
that if nothing is done, the BJP would disintegrate and 
Congress return in the next election. 
 
Bio Notes 
--------- 
 
7.  (C) Tiwari openly told Poloff that he intends to replace 
Raje as Chief Minister.  He is a devout Brahmin, in a state 
where his caste is not influential, and sees himself as a 
natural mediator between contentious castes.  Tiwari is close 
to the RSS and actively promotes Hindutva and is counting on 
Joshi's patronage to put him in power.  He predicted that 
Raje would be given a BJP management position in New Delhi, 
possibly as General Secretary. 
 
8.  (C) MLA Modi, who inherited a large marble business, is 
very wealthy and ambitious.  He defected from Congress to 
help Raje devise a winning strategy in 2003, and expected her 
to name him to the Cabinet.  Disappointed, he is now plotting 
against her and Tiwari.  He is still very close to Congress 
and believes his followers in the BJP and Congress will make 
him Chief Minister. 
 
9.  (C) Raje is extremely religious and spends days at a time 
worshipping at a favorite temple in rural Rajasthan, where 
she is devoted to the deity (murti) there.  Despite this, she 
resents the RSS and relates well with Muslims and Christians. 
 Raje's astrologer told her that the secretariat is not 
"auspicious," and she has constructed an office at her 
residence, increasing her alienation from the state civil 
service, which rarely interacts with her.  Considered an 
outsider in Rajasthan, she has done little to endear herself 
to the state's entrenched elites.  Most assume she is not 
really comfortable in Jaipur and would not be averse to 
returning to Delhi if offered a suitable position. 
 
Comment: Can Radical Surgery Save the Patient? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
10.  (C) When elected in 2003, Vasundhara Raje appeared to be 
one of the future BJP superstars.  Since then, the party's 
long decline has also encompassed her administration.  The 
Rajasthan BJP failed to unite behind its Chief Minister and 
has been engulfed by factionalism.  Her days as Chief 
Minister may be numbered, as several rivals with strong local 
roots are plotting against her.  Rajasthan is another 
disappointment for the BJP at a time when things are going 
wrong all over the country for the party.  With the BJP's 
standing on the wane, even a change of administrations may 
not stave off electoral defeat. 
BLAKE