US embassy cable - 05ROME3467

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 003467 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IT, ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
SUBJECT: ITALY:  PRODI WINS CLEAR VICTORY IN CENTER-LEFT 
PRIMARIES 
 
REF: A. ROME 3376 
 
     B. ROME 3442 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David Pearce 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Former EU Commissioner Romano Prodi confirmed 
his role as Center-Left party leader in a decisive victory in 
Italy's first ever coalition primaries on October 16.  A 
surprisingly high 4.4 million voters gave Prodi 74.6 percent 
of the vote, versus 14.6 percent for his nearest rival, 
far-left Communist Renewal (RC) General Secretary Fausto 
Bertinotti.  The unexpectedly wide margin of victory confirms 
Prodi as coalition leader and gives him a stronger hand 
against Bertinotti on the far left. Even so, the already 
fractioned Center-Left coalition is showing signs of further 
strain in the face of electoral reform legislation that is 
expected to weaken coalitions and strengthen party leaders, 
not least Prime Minister Berlusconi.  END SUMMARY 
 
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PRODI WINS DECISIVE VICTORY, HIGH TURNOUT 
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2. (SBU) Former EU Commission President Romano Prodi won the 
Center-Left election primaries held October 16 by a 
surprisingly decisive margin (REF A).  Prodi won 74.4 percent 
of the votes, and far-left Communist Renewal (RC) candidate 
Fausto Bertinotti received 14.6 percent. Union of Democrats 
for Europe (UDEUR) Clemente Mastella took 4.5 percent and 
former anti-corruption prosecutor and head of the Italy of 
Values Party Antonio Di Pietro won 3.3 percent.  In another 
surprise, nearly 4.4 million voters turned out for Italy's 
first-ever nationwide primaries.  Election organizers had 
officially predicted one million participants, and party 
leaders privately had expressed confidence that turnout would 
reach two million. 
 
3. (C) Prior to election day, analysts had said that Prodi 
needed to win at least 60 percent of the vote and Bertinotti 
less than 20 percent for Prodi to assume the undisputed 
leadership of the Center-Left "Union" coalition.  Press 
commentators and Center-Left party leaders have confirmed 
publicly that Prodi's decisive victory and the large turnout 
for the Center-Left mean Prodi is the coalition leader 
heading into spring 2006 national elections.  Center-Right 
politicians, including PM Silvio Berlusconi, have tried to 
minimize the importance of the primary vote.  Marco Casella, 
head of a Forza Italia-affiliated think tank, confirmed to 
Poloff that the primaries were a great success for the 
Center-Left generally, and Prodi specifically. He commented 
further that Berlusconi has been unwise to "ridicule" a 
process that involved nearly four million Italian voters, 
especially since some members of Berlusconi's coalition also 
had called for primaries by the Center-Right to determine 
coalition leadership. 
 
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VICTORY DOES NOT TRANSLATE INTO CLEAR PLATFORM 
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4. (C) Center-Left politicians and representatives from 
independent think tanks told Poloff prior to the primary 
elections that Prodi, even as the confirmed leader of the 
Center-Right, would still have difficulty negotiating a 
coalition platform.  Daisy party Head of International 
Affairs Luca Bader told Poloff that the winner in the 
primaries would not assume absolute coalition leadership in 
the way that the winner of a U.S. party primary would. 
Casella told Poloff that the process of negotiating a 
coalition platform will be complicated further as a result of 
electoral reform legislation that weakens the ties that bind 
coalitions together and strengthens party leaders (REF B). 
(COMMENT: The new law will effectively put less of a premium 
on pre-electoral coalition bargaining and more weight on 
post-election discussions, removing some of the leverage 
previously enjoyed by smaller coalition parties.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
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COALITION SPLITS ALREADY EMERGING 
--------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) The Center-Left "Union" previewed potential internal 
problems the same day it achieved an important victory. 
Electoral reform legislation that will almost certainly be 
law by next year's elections essentially obligates Prodi to 
either become a member of a particular political party or to 
found his own party.  On the evening of his victory, Prodi 
declared that the tradition of the Olive Party (his previous 
election vehicle) is alive and well, and called for the 
 
merger of the Center-Left's two largest parties, the 
Democrats of the Left (DS) and the Daisy Party, to form a new 
Olive Party.  The press reports that DS President Massimo 
D'Alemo responded somewhat positively, but that Daisy General 
Secretary Francesco Rutelli made it clear that the Daisy 
 
SIPDIS 
party would remain independent.  At the same time, Italian 
Social Democrat (SDI) leader Enrico Boselli said his party 
would go ahead with a proposed alliance with the non-Union 
affiliated Radical Party.  Mastella announced he would break 
ranks with the Union position on the electoral reform law and 
vote in favor of it when it arrives in the Senate.  He also 
said the UDEUR might withdraw from the Union after a special 
party session in January. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C) COMMENT: Prodi's strong victory and the surprisingly 
large primary turnout confirm Prodi's position as coalition 
leader.  However, the divisions in the Center-Left and the 
soon-to-be passed electoral reform law have cast doubt over 
the importance of pre-electoral coalitions.  Casella told 
Poloff the real victor is the DS, since it is the party that 
produced most of the Center-Left's four million primary 
voters.  With the Daisy and other center-oriented parties 
seeing the possibility of a new "center-center" coalition 
emerging over the horizon, Prodi may find it increasingly 
difficult to hold his coalition.  Bottom line: Prodi is 
stronger vis-a-vis the far left, but this is tempered by more 
disarray in the Center-Left coalition; Berlusconi and other 
big party leaders strengthened by the new electoral law; and 
a tightening race for national elections next spring.  END 
COMMENT. 
BORG 
 
 
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 2005ROME03467 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL