US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1809

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001809 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA/INS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA'S ELECTION: ECONOMIC ISSUES KEY FOR 
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL VOTERS 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: In late September, Poloff and Pol FSN 
visited south and central Sri Lanka to meet politicians and 
civil society leaders and discuss the November 17 
Presidential election.  Most interlocutors agreed that for 
Ratnapura, Badulla, and Moneragela districts, employment, 
welfare, and agricultural subsidies were foremost on voters' 
minds.  The bulk of our contacts felt that the race will be 
close, with each side claiming the scales are tilting in its 
candidate's favor.  End summary. 
 
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ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVING VOTERS- 
OTHER ISSUES SECONDARY 
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2. (U) The economy in Ratnapura, in south central Sri Lanka, 
is primarily dependent on the gem industry, with tea and 
rubber production as secondary industries.  The Badulla 
district in the central hill country consists of tea estates 
and smallholders' farms, with some rubber production.  For 
Moneragela in the south east, rice paddy production is the 
primary source of income.  The majority communities in all 
of these areas are Sinhalese Buddhists.  In the tea 
producing regions, upcountry, or "estate" Tamils, who have 
historically worked at tea plantations, are a strong 
minority presence.  There is also a smaller minority of 
Muslims in south and central Sri Lanka, many of whom are 
engaged in the gem industry or in other forms of trade 
rather than farming.  Interlocutors in all of these 
locations noted that for voters in the region, economic 
concerns will dominate the presidential election. 
 
3. (SBU) In Ratnapura September 28, Poloff and Pol FSN met 
with opposition United National Party (UNP) member of the 
Sabaragamuwa Provincial Council Samitha Attygalla, Ratnapura 
Municipal Council Mayor Nimal Dayawansa, and UNP Member of 
Parliament (MP) Susantha Punchinilame.  These opposition 
stalwarts placed the high cost of living and rising 
fertilizer prices as the issues dominating the minds of 
voters.  They stated that unemployment and under-employment 
are rampant in both the gem industry and the agricultural 
sector.  Ratnapura's poor economic situation is exacerbated 
by the high cost of living and rising fertilizer prices, and 
according to our contacts, the government had done nothing 
to alleviate the problems. 
 
4. (SBU) At a September 29 meeting in Embilipitya, UNP MP 
Piyadasa Abeynayake of the Ratnapura district said that 
former SLFP coalition governments had ignored the gem 
industry, driving away investors through taxes and 
bureaucracy and subsequently causing cash-poor mine owners 
to lay off employees.  In a separate meeting that same day, 
gem merchant Jinadasa Guruge of Kahawatte concurred with 
that assessment.  Chairman of Gem Corp and local organizer 
for the governing Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) Asoka 
Jayawardena felt similarly, he told us in Ratnapura 
September 30.  Jayawardena added that he blamed the Marxist, 
Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP) for 
not improving the SLFP's economic policies during its time 
as a governing coalition partner. 
 
5. (SBU) In a Sepetember 29 meeting in Wellawaya, a town in 
Moneragela District, local UNP organizer Ananda Kumarasiri, 
too, discussed economic problems the voters in his district 
face. Kumarasiri sought to renovate water reservoirs and 
offer agricultural price guarantees consistent with the 
UNP's party manifesto. 
 
6. (SBU) Attygalla, Dayawansa, and Punchinilame also told us 
that Ratnapura district has the country's second highest 
number of Samurdhi, or welfare, recipients.  They alleged 
that the government has given the Samurdhi administrators 
significant leeway in selecting beneficiaries, so many 
deserving poor families do not get selected, especially if 
they are not allied with the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP).  They said that the UNP intends to overhaul Samurdhi 
so that there are fewer recipients overall, but with each 
needy recipient's allotment increased. 
 
7. (SBU) At a September 28 meeting, Sabaragamuwa's former 
chief minister and current provincial council minister and 
SLFP member Mohan Ellawela noted that Ratnapura district has 
no ethnic tensions and minimal labor problems.  He told us 
that out of the district's 110,000 voters, around 37,000 are 
estate Tamils and roughly 26,000 are Muslim. Ellawela felt 
told us that some senior SLFP members objected to the SLFP's 
pact with the Marxist Sinhalese-nationalist Janatha Vimukthi 
Peremuna (JVP).  However, he added, youth in his district 
were drawn to the JVP's philosophy, so the SLFP-JVP pact 
might not hinder Rajapakse's chances.  A Muslim attorney and 
local SLFP organizer in Balangoda, also in Ratnapura 
district, later also told us that despite being a member of 
a minority community, he has not experienced ethnic tensions 
in the region. 
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PARTY ORGANIZATION 
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8. (SBU) Chief Minister of the Sabaragamuwa Province and 
SLFP member Mahiepala Herath noted that all the parties that 
pledged to support Rajapakse are coordinating their efforts, 
but he added that a number of SLFP supporters disapprove of 
his pacts with the JVP and monk-based Jathika Hela Urumaya 
(JHU).  Earlier Jayawardena had expressed the same opinion, 
and he posited that some SLFP members might boycott the 
polls to protest Rajapakse's pact. 
 
9. (SBU) Mayor of Haputale and SLFP organizer Sumith 
Samayadasa said that the UNP was weak in his electorate. He 
was also confident that Rajapakse could win the support of 
the Ceylon Workers' Congress (CWC) trade unions in the Uva 
Province.  (Note: The CWC's October 5 announcement of 
support for the UNP indicates Samayadasa's confidence was 
ill-founded. Perhaps Samayadasa had simply been implying 
that Rajapakse's pacts with the JVP and JHU would not 
alienate Muslims, many of whom make up the CWC.  End note.) 
 
10. (SBU) Samayadasa also concurred with Bandarawela's UNP 
organizers' assessment that whichever candidate credibly 
promises improved living conditions to estate workers can 
win the Uva Province in central Sri Lanka. The UNP 
organizers of Bandarawela told us that during the past three 
months, the party has been able to increase its vote base in 
Uva, except in Haputale, where the UNP's House Speaker 
Lokubandara has not been very active. 
 
11. (SBU) September 30, poloff met with Paranagamage, who 
runs pre-employment training programs for young people with 
the YES Foundation in Tissamaharama.  He noted a decrease in 
the JVP's appeal to youth, especially in Tissamaharama 
Pradeshiya Sabha (local governing council), formerly a 
traditional stronghold for the party.  He credited the shift 
to non-profit groups' educational efforts that exposed young 
people to broader cosmopolitan ideas, thereby diminishing 
the appeal of the JVP's narrowly focused views.  He also 
mentioned a recent UNP membership drive in which the 
organizers had expected a turn out of one thousand 
participants when four thousand youth actually turned up for 
the program. 
 
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COMMENT 
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12. (SBU) The people we spoke to all believe the election 
will be a close one.  Both UNP and SLFP supporters told us 
that they are planning door-to-door campaigns to sway swing 
voters.  Most interlocutors agreed that while some minority 
groups and mainstream Sinhalese were concerned about 
Rajapakse's pact with the extremist JVP, for voters in the 
south and center of the country, economic concerns will 
dominate.  For groups living relatively harmoniously and far 
removed from the clashes in the North and East, it is no 
surprise that bread and butter issues take precedence over 
concerns about the ethnic divide.  The UNP's manifesto seeks 
to address some of these concerns with the promise of new 
jobs and farm subsidies.  However, it remains to be seen 
whether people respond to the pragmatic manifesto, coupled 
with the aloof candidate Wickremesinghe, or to the more 
genial Rajapakse, whose party has not yet published a 
manifesto.