US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT4438

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 004438 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARPI, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, KDEM, KU, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, SUCCESSION, FREEDOM AGENDA 
SUBJECT: LEADING MP "SCARED TO DEATH" ABOUT LEADERSHIP 
"CRISIS"; OUTLINES NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRIORITIES 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 4406 
 
     B. KUWAIT 4403 
     C. KUWAIT 4372 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary and comment: The Ambassador met October 15 
with Mohammed Jassem Al-Sager, a National Assembly member 
(MP) and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. 
Commenting on the recent ruling family spat over the 
country's future leadership (reftels), sparked by National 
Guard Chief Shaykh Salem Al-Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah's call for 
the creation of a three-member committee to run the country, 
Al-Sager said, "I am scared to death."  Al-Sager stressed 
repeatedly that the current situation constituted a "crisis." 
 "If anything happens in the ruling family, you (the United 
States) will be directly affected," Al-Sager commented. 
Turning to National Assembly politics, Al-Sager said there 
were three priorities for the upcoming National Assembly 
session: 1) approval of the northern oil fields development 
project, known as Project Kuwait; 2) passage of the Press and 
Publications Law; 3) reduction of the number of electoral 
districts.  Al-Sager predicted both Project Kuwait and the 
Press and Publications Law would be approved, but doubted 
there was enough support currently to reduce the number of 
electoral districts, which he said was the most important 
legislation and a key element of political reform. 
 
2.  (C) Comment: Al-Sager very much wants to see prompt 
decisions by the Al-Sabahs to resolve the succession issue. 
His tendency to over-dramatize the situation reflects his 
strong desire for clear, coherent Kuwaiti leadership.  End 
summary and comment. 
 
"Scared to Death" about Leadership "Crisis" 
------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) In an October 15 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee MP Mohammed Jassem 
Al-Sager said he was "scared to death" about Kuwait's recent 
controversy over the country's future leadership (reftels). 
Al-Sager stressed repeatedly that "we are in a crisis" and 
predicted there would be changes soon in Kuwait's top 
leaders.  He said that "the Amir is very sick, the Crown 
Prince doesn't know anyone around him, and the Prime Minister 
has a pacemaker."  "We are living on luck," he added.  Asked 
about possible future leadership scenarios, Al-Sager said the 
only "realistic" scenario was for Shaykh Sabah to become 
Crown Prince.  Al-Sager continued: "The problem is that the 
Salem branch of the Al-Sabah family wants a share of the 
cake.  The issue is whether or not Shaykh Sabah will give it 
to them." 
 
4.  (C) Al-Sager cautioned that if the ruling family does not 
resolve its problems, critical issues would remain unresolved 
and key legislation would stall in the National Assembly. 
Asked for clarification, Al-Sager explained that the National 
Assembly is currently divided between groups loyal to 
different factions of the family.  "Some MPs support Shaykh 
Salem Al-Ali, and he is working on them," Al-Sager said.  He 
added, "You don't want to see a confrontation between two 
sides of the royal family."  He suggested that, in the 
extreme, such a conflict could turn "violent."  "If anything 
happens in the ruling family, you will be directly affected," 
Al-Sager stressed to the Ambassador.  "You should help us 
solve this problem," he concluded.  The Ambassador told 
Al-Sager that the U.S. was unlikely to get directly involved 
in arbitrating Kuwait's internal political disputes, and that 
we saw no transition scenario which would bring fundamental 
changes to the strong U.S.-Kuwaiti relationship. 
 
Predicts Press Law and Project Kuwait Will Pass; 
Electoral Reform Will Not 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
5.  (C) Al-Sager said there were three priorities for the 
upcoming National Assembly session: 1) approval of the 
northern oil fields development project, known as Project 
Kuwait; 2) passage of the Press and Publications Law; and 3) 
reduction of the number of electoral districts, which 
according to Al-Sager was the most important legislation. 
Al-Sager predicted both the Press and Publications Law and 
Project Kuwait would be approved by the National Assembly. 
Al-Sager said he supported reducing the number of electoral 
districts from 25 to five, or even two, but doubted the 
number of districts would be reduced to even ten since the 
Government was ambivalent about the reform.  The Ambassador 
told Al-Sager he had expressed the USG's strong support for 
electoral reform in numerous meetings with GOK officials and 
would continue to do so. 
 
6.  (C) Asked about other key legislation, Al-Sager said the 
United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Status of 
Forces Agreement (SOFA), which was approved by the Foreign 
Affairs Committee, "would not be a problem in the National 
Assembly."  He also promised the Ambassador to push for the 
passage of the long-stalled Article 98 legislation.  Al-Sager 
said he "did not know" if new labor legislation would be 
passed this session, noting that it had yet to be approved by 
the Cabinet.  "If the Government approves it in the Cabinet, 
I do not think there will be a problem here in the National 
Assembly," Al-Sager said. 
 
Political Reform Stymied 
------------------------ 
 
7.  (C) Al-Sager told the Ambassador three political reforms 
were essential in Kuwait: 1) recognition of political 
parties, 2) passage of the Press and Publications Law, and 3) 
reduction of the number of electoral constituencies, which he 
said was critical to broader political reform.  Al-Sager 
admitted that recognition of political parties and electoral 
district reduction were unlikely to be approved anytime soon. 
 Based on regional experience, the Prime Minister still sees 
political parties as a potentially destabilizing force, he 
said. 
 
Possible Ouster of "Not a Liberal" 
---------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Al-Sager told the Ambassador he might not be 
re-elected as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee this 
National Assembly session.  He complained the Government was 
not giving him much support and noted that a new coalition of 
MPs could oust him.  He also mentioned that he will soon 
start his own newspaper once the new press law permits new 
publications.  Asked if the newspaper would be 
liberal-leaning (in the Kuwaiti context), Al-Sager said that 
while he was liberal on "economic, financial, and political 
issues," he was "very conservative" on social issues.  He 
said he preferred not to be labeled a "liberal" in Kuwait, 
since that connoted liberal social values.  (Note: The 
Al-Sager family is currently a co-owner of the influential 
Al-Qabas newspaper.  End note.) 
 
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LEBARON