US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4240

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, PINR, IZ, Sunni Arab, Elections 
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM UPDATE 2 - FREE AND FAIR AND LOTS OF 
SUNNI ARABS VOTING 
 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS ROBERT S. FORD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY.  All reporting indicates that the October 
15 referendum was generally free and fair. There were some 
allegations of irregularities at sites around the country, 
especially in Ninewa.  There were  isolated incidents of 
violence but these did not much affect the voting. 
Although there were more polling stations than in the 
January elections, overall voter turnout was lighter than 
expected -- particularly in the South.  Voter turnout in 
strife-ridden Anbar province was relatively low compared to 
other provinces, but far above the turnout in January. 
Notably, the election commission operated 144 polling 
centers there compared to roughly 30 in January.  Likewise, 
in Ninewah, where only 17 percent of voters turned out in 
January, this time voter turnout appears to have reached 
the 65 percent plus range.  According to election 
officials, preliminary results are expected in the next two 
days, with final results likely in five to seven days.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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REFERENDUM APPEARS TO BE FREE AND FAIR -- BUT SOME PROBLEMS 
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2. (U) As polls close on the historic vote for Iraq's draft 
constitution, all reporting indicates that, overall, it was 
a free and fair process.  While there were some allegations 
of irregularities, particularly in Ninewa Province, voters, 
observers, and government officials generally reported that 
the majority of polling stations opened, ballots and ballot 
boxes were available, and there were far fewer incidents of 
violence than expected. 
 
3. (C) The reported incidents of violence included: several 
voters assassinated in Baghdad's Ghazaliyah neighborhood; a 
bomb in Baquba; and a hostage incident in Ramadi.  Security 
for the elections was effective and voters had unimpeded 
access to polling stations.  There were more polling 
stations than in the January elections, especially in 
Ninewa and Anbar.  Citizens appeared to have been generally 
free to vote without fear of intimidation.  The Iraqi 
Electoral Information Network (an NGO group supported with 
training from the National Democratic Institute) reported 
that women played a large role in the voting.  During 
Embassy and REO/SET site visits around the country, women 
appeared to represent the majority of voters except in 
Fallujah. 
 
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SUNNIS AND KURDS -- GOOD SHOWING; SHI'A TURNOUT LIGHTER? 
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4. (C) Preliminary reports suggest that voter turnout, 
while very good, was smaller than in the January elections, 
especially in the South.  Estimates have ranged from 33 
percent in some of the Shi'a provinces to 66 percent in 
provinces such as Kurdish Sulamaniyah.  Initial estimates 
for turnout in Ninewah suggested turnout of 65 percent or 
more, according to the Independent Election Commission of 
Iraq (IECI).  Ninewah, expected to be one of the key 
provinces in the referendum, saw some problems related with 
polling centers opening, voter intimidation, and vote 
fraud.  Irregularities included allegations of Peshmerga 
troops voting in the area, Kurds being bussed into the 
region to vote, and Peshmerga intimidation of Sunni voters. 
In what we judge to the other key province, Salah ad-Din, 
voter turnout also appeared to be heavy - over 65 percent, 
according to IECI.  Our initial take is that these problems 
are much less than they were in January, but our 
information is not complete.  Polling sites in Kirkuk, 
where the constitution is expected to pass, were reportedly 
orderly.  However, there was much voter discontent over the 
last minute amendments to the draft constitution, according 
to PolFSN there. 
 
5. (C) Voter turnout in the Khalis District of Diyala was 
reportedly so high that officials opened two new polling 
stations.  There were contradictory reports regarding the 
number of open polling centers in Al Anbar Province, but 
voting in Fallujah, where the result is likely to be an 
overwhelming "no," appeared to be heavy (initial estimates 
suggest the number could top 100,000, according to our 
Poloff there).  However, voter turnout in Ramadi and 
western Anbar was reportedly light (initial estimates near 
10,000, according to Ramadi Poloff). 
 
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NEXT STEPS 
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6. (C) Polls close at 1700 local (all voters in line at 
1700 will be allowed to cast their votes).  The overall 
consensus of observers is that referendum day went 
exceedingly well.  However, how the process continues to 
play out in the tallying phase will be an indicator of how 
free and fair the referendum really was.  IECI indicates 
that preliminary results are expected within the next two 
days, with final tallies expected in five to seven days. 
Polling stations will conduct in situ counts and 
tabulations of the ballots, after which the voting 
materials will be sealed, collected, and eventually 
transported to the IECI Tally Center in Baghdad. 
Khalilzad