US embassy cable - 05SOFIA1785

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001785 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, BU, EUN 
SUBJECT: BULGARIA CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC - PERHAPS OVERLY SO 
- ON EVE OF EU ACCESSION REPORT 
 
 
Classified By: JEFFREY D. LEVINE FOR REASONS 1.4 B & D 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  All eyes are on Brussels on the eve of the 
October 25 European Commission (EC) progress report on 
Bulgaria's EU accession.  The government is engaged in a 
complex strategy of playing down the public's expectations, 
encouraging parliament to pass the necessary legislation - 
particularly in the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) area - 
while firmly maintaining its suitability to enter on schedule 
in January 2007.  GOB officials tell us they are certain that 
Bulgaria is as ready for entry as other recent admitees were 
14 months before their accession.  The Prime Minister has 
publicly said Bulgaria should not be held to a higher 
standard than the others.  The upcoming EC report is expected 
to be another warning to Bulgaria to step up efforts, but is 
not likely to give a clear signal of whether they will enter 
in 2007 or be delayed until 2008.  The Minister of European 
Affairs, among others, has warned that the current coalition 
government would not survive a delayed entry.  END SUMMARY 
 
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THE BACKGROUND 
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2. (U) The EU Member States (MS), along with Bulgaria and 
Romania, signed the Accession Treaty on April 25, 2005 in 
Luxembourg, with a goal of EU entry on January 1, 2007. 
Under pressure from states which questioned the two nations' 
preparedness, safeguard clauses were installed that allow for 
a delay of one year to January 1, 2008, if the MS feel the 
countries are not ready.  In the case of Bulgaria, delay 
requires unanimous approval.  However, entry also requires 
that all current MS ratify the accession treaty by December 
31, 2006.  Bulgaria ratified it on May 11, 2005.  Hungary, 
Slovakia and Slovenia have also ratified so far, with Greece, 
Italy, Spain, Portugal and the Czech Republic reportedly 
close. 
 
3. (C) Throughout the last few years of the accession 
process, Bulgaria had been seen as having a lead on Romania. 
Many Bulgarians feared their accession could be delayed by 
Romania's slow progress.  However, since the "No" votes on 
the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands, combined 
with a slow post-election coalition-building period here, and 
resultant delays in implementation of much needed reforms, 
the EC has appeared more hesitant about Bulgaria. 
 
4. (C)  Minister for EU Affairs Meglena Kuneva recently told 
Ambassador Beyrle that delay to 2008 would be very harmful 
for Bulgaria's economy in addition to damaging the "national 
psyche."  As an example of the damage that could be done, she 
described how "good" businesses have invested in necessary 
changes to comply with EU regulations.  These businesses will 
be at a disadvantage in the local market that could threaten 
their existence if accession is delayed. 
 
5. (C) Perhaps more importantly, however, Kuneva and others 
fear a delay would shatter the already tenuous governing 
coalition, leading to even further delays in needed reforms. 
It is "now or never, with our two-thirds majority in 
Parliament," Kuneva said.  She also asserted to Beyrle that 
criminal interests profit by the status quo and are working 
against Bulgaria's entry by slowing implementation of 
judicial and law enforcement reforms.  In addition, Kuneva is 
concerned that factors outside Bulgaria's control, such as 
public sentiment in many EU states, overall enlargement 
fatigue, and an unspoken understanding within many EU states 
that neither Bulgaria nor Romania are especially desirable 
countries, could trip them up.  There is also the deterrent 
factor: delaying Bulgaria's (and Romania's) entrance would 
send a very effective message to Croatia and Turkey that the 
EU is serious about maintaining its standards. 
 
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THE EFFORT CONTINUES 
------------------- 
 
6. (C) Bulgaria is working hard towards a 2007 entry. 
Externally, the GOB is trying to speed up the ratification 
process in the MS.  Internally, Bulgaria has several 
commitments to work on, including implementation of EU 
criminal justice directives.   Kuneva said the implementation 
process has been very good for modernizing Bulgaria.  She 
ticked off efforts at revamping the criminal procedure code, 
legal aid, witness protection, court administration, 
restructuring of the Ministry of Interior, and other 
accomplishments as evidence of Bulgaria's progress.  Kuneva 
also pointed to several scandals in the current MS, e.g. 
Parmalat, to show Bulgaria is not the only source of 
corruption in Europe.  She also mentioned to Ambassador 
Beyrle that in Bulgaria much depends on the personalities 
involved in key areas, and stressed the need for strong, 
clean figures as heads of the Supreme Court (Cassation), 
Constitutional Court, and the Prosecutor General's Office. 
 
7. (C) The Head of the EC Delegation in Sofia, Dimitris 
Kourkoulas, told the Ambassador that there is no question of 
"whether" Bulgaria gets into the EU, only of "when." 
Kourkoulas said that of the five areas listed in a June 2005 
"early warning letter" as needing improvement, only failure 
to act decisively in JHA areas - particularly to reform the 
judiciary and combat corruption - would be a deal-breaker. 
Kuneva also acknowledged Bulgaria's need to strengthen 
efforts in the justice field.  Three other areas - freedom to 
provide services, agriculture, and environment - all hold 
financial incentives for Bulgaria to act quickly, so the EC 
is not worried about their eventual implementation.  In the 
fifth area, IPR protections, the EU is deciding how hard to 
come down on Bulgaria's efforts. 
 
8. (C) The Comprehensive Monitoring Report, which the EC will 
issue on October 25, will assess progress up to September 30 
this year, and will highlight remaining shortcomings. 
Kourkoulas told us he expected the report to be another 
strongly-worded but open warning, with no clear indication of 
whether Bulgaria will enter in '07 or '08.  He thought 
Bulgaria and Romania would be linked.  The EC will release 
the final monitoring report in March 2006, along with its 
final recommendation.  The heads of government of the EU MS 
will make the final decision in June 2006. 
 
9. (C) Kourkoulas cautioned the Ambassador that in an extreme 
case, if MS vote to delay entry until '08, it could set off a 
chain of unforeseen events that could block the accession of 
new entrants.  Kourkoulas agrees that a delay could bring 
down the current coalition in Bulgaria, and could also give 
current EU opponents of enlargement momentum to close the 
doors.  The EC is under public pressure to show it is 
seriously enforcing its requirements, and to show EU citizens 
that their opinions on the future of their Union are 
considered.  Kourkoulas said a successful entry will help 
Bulgaria substantially, both economically and politically, 
and will act as a model for both the Western Balkans and 
Turkey.  Personally Kourkoulas feels that Bulgaria will move 
more quickly on reforms through their entry.  However, he 
acknowledged that some MS do not think Bulgaria is ready to 
join the team. 
 
10. (C) COMMENT: Bulgaria is at a crucial point in its 
post-communist transition.  The new government has its full 
focus on preparations for a January 2007 entry, and is 
continuing the legislative and constitutional marathon begun 
by its predecessors.  The government has also asked for our 
political support of its 2007 entry.  There are many issues 
beyond Bulgaria's control that could slow their entry. 
However, much of the country's future success depends on its 
ability to quickly and decisively move forward with serious 
reforms in order to convince the EC of Bulgaria's readiness 
to play in the big leagues. END COMMENT 
LEVINE