US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8012

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, MOPS, ENRG, PBTS, ETRD, IN, PK, INDO-PAK, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: MEA LARGELY UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK, BUT QUAKE NO 
PANACEA FOR TERRORISM 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 7990 
     B. STATE 188931 
     C. NEW DELHI 7874 
     D. 10/13 DEPARTMENT PRESS GUIDANCE 
     E. NEW DELHI 3745 
     F. NEW DELHI 1480 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In an October 14 meeting with PolCouns and 
Poloff, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) 
Dilip Sinha judged that it was too soon to assess the damage 
the October 8 earthquake dealt to terrorism in Kashmir, 
although he cautioned that the terrorists' setbacks may only 
be temporary.  The earthquake also set back progress on some 
Indo-Pak transportation and trade related CBMs that had been 
proceeding apace.  Sinha reported good vibes and incremental 
progress on expanding air links and liberalizing business 
visas emerging from Natwar Singh's October 3-5 trip to 
Pakistan, and explained that journalists had overstated how 
close the two sides were to a deal on Siachen Glacier before 
the meeting, which made their inability to close the gaps 
erroneously appear to be a last-minute collapse.  He had no 
news to share on the World Bank expert's site visit to 
Baglihar Dam, and agreed that the transfer of F-16s to 
Pakistan would not alter the region's strategic balance.  End 
Summary. 
 
Earthquake an Effective CT Operation?  Too Soon to Tell 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2.  (C) After receiving PolCouns' condolences for the 
earthquake deaths suffered in India and our appreciation for 
the aid and assistance India is sending to Pakistan, Sinha 
said it is too soon to assess accurately the damage the 
earthquake inflicted on terrorist groups operating in 
Kashmir.  He noted that terrorist infiltrations and attacks 
continue despite United Jehad Council supremo Syed 
Salahuddin's call for a cease-fire and assistance with rescue 
efforts (Ref A), remarking "They continue these attacks when 
their own people are suffering from the earthquake; they are 
so driven by hate they cease to be human." 
 
3.  (C) Taking PolCouns' point that GOP involvement with 
cross-border terrorism would now require an affirmative 
decision to rebuild camps and support infrastructure in 
Kashmir, Sinha nevertheless cautioned that reconstruction of 
training camps and launching points would not be an onerous 
task.  He commented on the reports of damage to terror camps 
as an indication that they continued to exist in the face of 
Islamabad's denials.  PolCouns noted that the USG sees 
positive changes in Musharraf's views and actions regarding 
Kashmir-oriented terrorism, and reiterated that both sides 
would benefit from sharing information on Kashmir (Ref E); 
Sinha remained unconvinced that Musharraf had made any 
permanent changes to GOP policy on cross-border terrorism. 
 
Quake Damage Delays CBMs 
------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Turning to Indo-Pak people-to-people CBMs, Sinha 
reported that the road for the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus 
service and the landmark "Aman Sethu" ("Peace Bridge") were 
damaged in the quake, and engineers have not yet assessed how 
long repairs will take.  The buses returned this week via a 
circuitous route to deliver passengers back to their homes. 
The damage will also delay plans to allow trucks carrying 
produce for cross-border trade to ply the LoC crossing, 
because the two sides have yet to establish customs 
facilities to support trade along this hilly route, a project 
which is now secondary to disaster relief and recovery. 
Similarly, Sinha added, the technical meetings to clear the 
way for the Lahore-Amritsar bus service are on hold. 
Rumors of a Siachen Breakthrough Leaned Too Far Forward 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
5.  (C) Sinha revealed that news reports of an imminent 
breakthrough on Siachen Glacier during the October 3-5 
Foreign Ministers' meeting in Islamabad misinterpreted the 
GOI's position.  Delhi sought mutually agreed authentication 
of current troop locations and an agreement that the 
extension of the LoC through that region would progress north 
from point NJ9842, and not northeast to the Karakoram Pass 
(which would cede territory to Pakistan).  Some journalists 
"jumped to paragraph two, on authenticating the troop 
locations, without pausing on paragraph one for delineating 
the LoC," which prematurely raised expectations, he 
concluded.  Consequently, the lack of an agreement was not 
the big disappointment the press portrayed it to have been. 
 
Expanded Air Links, Liberalized Biz Visas in the Cards 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
6.  (C) That said, Sinha emphasized that the atmospherics for 
Natwar Singh's trip were "all positive," he found Islamabad 
"willing to move forward" on expanding bus and air transport 
links, and the GOP's periodic reasserting of the "centrality 
of Kashmir" had become "just a chant" that did not impede 
progress in other areas.  He experienced a similar "air of 
optimism" when he accompanied Natwar Singh to Karachi -- 
there were "absolutely no diatribes," and Natwar adopted 
Pakistani Foreign Minister Kasuri's formulation of Pakistan 
being a prospective "hub for Central Asian trade," with the 
implication that transit rights would also flow.  Sinha added 
that the two sides had agreed in principle to expand air 
links (more flights, destinations, and carriers) and 
liberalize business visas (longer duration, more cities), and 
the PM has given the green light, but the bureaucracies 
continue to work out the details.  He noted in passing that 
whereas Pakistan International Airlines uses all 12 of its 
allocated flights per week, Indian Airlines only runs two 
flights per week.  (COMMENT: Another good reason for private 
Indian carriers to fly to Pakistan.  END COMMENT.) 
 
Patient on Baglihar 
------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Sinha had "no indication of how things are leaning" 
from last week's site visit to Baglihar Dam by World 
Bank-appointed "Neutral Expert" Raymond Lafitte (Ref C).  He 
outlined that Lafitte's role is to adjudicate GOP questions 
on the dam's specifications.  If his ruling (due in 
January-February) does not satisfy both parties, the matter 
becomes a "dispute" and subject to arbitration by a board 
whose creation and composition is governed by Annexes to the 
Indus Water Treaty (Ref F).  As per our prior conversations 
on the matter, Sinha held that the GOI would support the 
resolution process as prescribed by the Treaty. 
 
F-16s Still in the Air ... as is Democracy 
------------------------------------------ 
 
8.  (C) Asked about the pending Congressional notification 
for the transfer of F-16s to Pakistan, Polcouns drew upon Ref 
D talking points to underline that we do not expect the 
transfer to alter the region's strategic landscape.  Polcouns 
also drew upon Ambassador Crocker's remarks at the New Delhi 
Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (Septel), noting 
that the Pakistan Air Force uses its existing F-16s in CT 
operations and the transfer would strengthen our effort to 
help Pakistan move in a positive direction.  Sinha averred 
that the issue is not strategic -- although he admitted that 
he personally concurs that the F-16s would not alter the 
balance -- but whether the USG is "rewarding bad behavior," 
to which PolCouns responded that Washington continues to 
ensure that Pakistan remains on the right track in moving 
toward democracy. 
 
Sharing Positive News on Terrorism 
---------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) PolCouns also shared with Sinha Ref B 
Zawahiri-al-Zarqawi letter, and pointed out that the letter 
showed how the capture in Pakistan of Abu al-Faraj al-Libi 
was disrupting al-Qa'ida funding and logistics in South Asia. 
 
Comment: Rapprochement Still the Name of the Game 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
10.  (C) Despite Sinha's reluctance to give Musharraf ground 
on cross-border terror -- which is echoed in much of the 
Indian bureaucracy -- the MEA remains committed to moving the 
rapprochement process ahead.  In Sinha's estimation, the 
earthquake set back both the peace process (for logistical 
reasons) and terrorism, but only temporarily.  We hope he was 
right on the first count, and wrong on the second. 
BLAKE