US embassy cable - 05SANJOSE2386

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002386 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, CS 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SEASON IN COSTA RICA OFFICIALLY BEGINS 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 1298 
 
     B. SAN JOSE 1408 
     C. SAN JOSE 1571 
     D. SAN JOSE 1721 
 
1.  Summary: The GOCR officially launched its 2006 election 
cycle on Saturday, October 1.  The February 5 ballot will be 
a crowded one: fourteen presidential candidates have been 
certified by the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE).  The field 
of candidates for the Legislative Assembly is similarly 
crowded, with a number of parties likely to win token 
representation.  Participation by so many divergent parties 
divides opposition to front-runner Oscar Arias and increases 
his chances for a first-round win.  With the official launch 
of the election cycle, parties that successfully participated 
in the last elections can begin to receive government 
funding.  Voter apathy remains a major concern.  End Summary. 
 
2.  Fourteen presidential candidates have been certified by 
the Supreme Elections Tribunal (TSE).  The field of 
candidates for the Legislative Assembly is similarly crowded: 
each nationally registered party may nominate a block of 
candidates, and voters simply select their party of choice. 
Winners are apportioned among the parties based on the 
proportion of votes received for their list of candidates. 
Hence, candidates at the top of a party's list have a much 
greater chance of actually being elected than those at the 
bottom.  With fourteen parties represented nationally, 
however, and little name recognition beyond the first few 
candidates, next year's legislative assembly will likely 
consist of legislators from many different parties. 
 
3. Ironically, the desire to prevent Oscar Arias from 
returning to the presidency may result in his easy victory in 
the first round.  The crowded presidential field contains a 
number of candidates who split from Arias's National 
Liberation Party (PLN) when the Constitutional Court ruled 
that he could run again.  Since none of the candidates have 
clearly risen above the others or promulgated a distinct 
platform, the competition has divided and diluted much of the 
opposition to Arias.  Most recent polls show support for 
Arias hovering near 40 percent--the level necessary to win 
outright and avoid a run-off.  His nearest competition, Otton 
Solis, is polling at a distant 15 percent.  Numerous attempts 
to form a coalition to oppose Arias have collapsed, leaving a 
fractured opposition that has little chance of defeating him 
(Reftel D). 
 
4. Campaign Finance: now that the election has officially 
begun, registered parties who won at least four percent of 
the national vote or at least one Assembly seat in the last 
election will receive campaign assistance funds from the 
government and will begin advertising in earnest.  The amount 
of governmental campaign funds available is set at 0.19 
percent of GDP, or just over USD 29 million for this cycle, 
by article 96 of the Constitution.  The same article allows 
for the percentage to be adjusted downward by the Assembly. 
Owing perhaps to recent corruption scandals and campaign 
finance irregularities, a number of candidates are engaging 
in a "race to the bottom," with each calling on the Assembly 
to approve ever-diminishing amounts.  The low bidder so far 
is Otton Solis, from the Citizens Action Party (PAC), who has 
said 0.08 percent of GDP should be sufficient.  Since these 
monies are only now available for use, several candidates 
have been advertising for weeks or even months using their 
own financing.  Oscar Arias has been particularly visible, 
having mounted expensive print, radio, television, and direct 
calling programs.  Political parties that did not 
successfully participate in the last elections do not receive 
government funding until after the elections when they can be 
reimbursed for a percentage of certain expenses, depending on 
the portion of the national vote their candidates obtained. 
Campaign expenses incurred before the October 1 official 
start, whether by new or established parties, are not 
reimbursable. 
 
5. Despite the fierce debate among candidates over several 
themes of national importance, including corruption, free 
trade, crime, and the economy, voter apathy is rampant.  Most 
recent surveys have shown that as much as 40 percent of 
eligible voters may have decided already not to vote.  Should 
this trend continue, the eventual winner will have a 
difficult time claiming a mandate, and the debate over 
CAFTA-DR could become even more acrimonious. 
FRISBIE